NBA Plays & Stats for (March 4th, 2020) from CheatSheetPros!
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
BOSTON CELTICS – So I’m not going to name any specific players but just put out there to keep an eye on this situation as this is where most of the value is likely coming from tonight. Kemba Walker & Jayson Tatum are OUT, Jaylen Brown & Gordon Hayward are Doubtful and Marcus Smart is Questionable. That could open up some cheap value. Right now JaVonte Green and Brad Wanamaker are projected in the 7x range of values but we have seen that change quickly when we get closer to lock.
COLLIN SEXTON – In 37.3 minutes per game he has been putting up 5.84x value. Steady FPPM production and a good DVP spot of 1.09. Garland is still out so I’m confident in his playing time. He had a tough matchup last time out vs. Utah that was a negative matchup and he ended up putting up 50.25 DKP for 8.4x value. Now he is going to get a depleted Boston Celtics team. After putting up 50, 25, 44 and 35 DKPs in his L4 and playing 35+ minutes in each of those games AND taking 16+ FG attempts per game in those 4 I like him tonight priced at only 6600 on DK! GPP or Cash with upside!
GORAN DRAGIC – Total edge we look for is over 100 but prefer 120. He is sitting at 160.4 with a DVP spot of 1.11. In a 30 min/game average he has been just shy of 5.5x value which is solid and steady FPPM production. I prefer him in cash more than GPP because of his limited upside. He has a 40.75 and 36.5 DKP game in his last 5 but then he is just hovering around that 5x mark with some 5.5x game. Prefer Cash Only.
JONAS VALANCIUNAS – He hit 5.6x value last time we wrote him up but for me that was a letdown because he was in a smash spot and coming off two solid games. He ended up with 38.25 DKP playing only 25 minutes after hitting 31 and 32 in the previous 2 games. So here we go again with a solid spot as BKN is giving up 55.7 DKP to his position and that is a 5.7% advantage and that converts out to a DVP spot of 1.16! If he can get the minutes he will do well. More risk here so prefer only GPPs but with two 50 DKP games prior to last time out that was 5.6x I like him tonight. GPP only.
COBY WHITE –In 31.8 min/game over his L4 he has only been averaging 6.86x value and his a high of 50.8 DKP and still priced at only 6200 for some unknown reason. DVP spot tonight is solid at 1.05 and his FPPM production is up from 1.07 to 1.20 for +12%. What I like about Coby tonight is that he is facing MIN who is allowing a whopping 262.7 DKP per game as a team over the last two weeks and that is the HIGHEST ON THE SLATE! That is 51.9 DKP to the PG position. His last 5 games he has 32+ minutes per game and put up 35.5, 34.5, 50.75, 49.5 and 42.75 DKP and all of those are around 6x and high 8x value! Cash or GPP play for me.
MALIK BEASLEY –In the same game as listed above Malik has been playing 33.2 minutes per game over the L4 and putting up 5.4x value with steady FPPM production and a decent DVP spot tonight of 1.03. For MIN we want to target SG (Beasley) and C’s as those are the best attach spots. He is playing 30+ min/game and putting up a range of 22.75 DKP for a low and highs of 39.25 and 41 DKP which are around 7x value. A little more risk here but should be lower owned that someone like Coby White. GPP or Cash.
CARIS LeVERT –Holy smokes this guy has some upside! He dropped a 62 DKP game on 2-26 where he had 34 real life points and then two shit cans of 26.25 and 25.5 points and then went nuts last night with 66.5 DKP and put up 51 real life points in that OT win vs. Boston. Last night he was 17 of 26 on FGs, 5 of 10 3P’ers, 12 of 18 FTs, 4 boards, 5 assists and a steal. Wow! His FPPM production is 1.14 up to 1.30 for +14% and a mild DVP spot of 0.96 but still playable. He is only priced at 7200 and has a range of outcomes from 3x to 9x so definitely GPPs playable and I don’t mind him in my cash games tonight at that price tag if going balanced. Prefer GPPs but also considering cash.
MYLES TURNER – To be honest he wasn’t even on my radar until I was running the sheet this morning while my son was getting ready for school. He came up as a Tier 1: Core Play so after hitting my computer monitor it didn’t change, it wasn’t a typo and he was still a T1 player. So I decided to look further. In 31.6 min/game over his L4 he has been putting up a solid 6.5x value and sitting in a DVP spot of 1.06 which is solid. So I wanted to look game by game and make sure there wasn’t 3 shit can games and 1 monster game that was making the average look good. I like to see solid consistent 5x-6x game with a few high games in between. His last 4 games he has been on a solid run with 35.25, 32, 33 and 42 DKPs. He also played 31, 36, 32 and 27 minutes in those games. His price really hasn’t changed to much it went from 5000 – 5200 – 5300 – 5200 and now 5500. His blocks are way up also as he has 4-4-2-8 in his L4 games and only 2-3-2-0 personal fouls. He is going up against MIL tonight who just got thumped by the Heat so I’m sure they come out red hot after taking two losses from the Heat this year. MIL allows the least amount of FP per game as a team at 205.9 but they are still giving up 52.3 DKP to the C position which is average for the league. But comparing that to other positions MIL is allowing a -8.0% to PG, -10.8% to SG, -12.7% to SF, -17.3% to PF so I think the C might have some extra shots tonight. Prefer GPP but don’t mind cash if tight on salary.
CHICAGO PF/C – So MIN is allowing the most FP as a team on the slate and on top of allowing a ton to the PG position they are also allowing 57.3 to the PF position for a +23.8% position advantage and 63.6 to the C position for a +20.7% position advantage. So look at those guys. It appears Lauri Markkanen is projected the highest of the 4 guys who fill in those roles for CHI but has a slight FPPM dip of 1.04 down to 0.81 recent for a -22% hit. I’d put him in my GPP pool but not cash at this point. The opportunity is there but he has been out since January 22nd. There could be some sneaky value if he is limited and one of these other guys gets hot like Thaddeous Young or Wendell Carter Jr.
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