NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
NEWS TO MONITOR – MIGHT OPEN UP VALUE PLAYS:
James Harden (Q) – Anytime one of the big 3 is ruled out the other two guys pick up a ton of usage. Kyrie Irving is only 9300 on DK while Kevin Durant is 10100 and that is too cheap.
Normal Powell (Q) & OG Anunoby (Out) – With Anunoby already ruled out and Powell (doubtful) this would make Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam solid plays soaking up more touches, shots and production. Chris Boucher is a fade for me right now after playing only 14 and 13 minutes in the last two games. This also makes Evan Fournier a wild card value pick as he will likely see most of the back ups on defense.
Joel Embiid (Q) – Joel Embiid is questionable, shocker! It seems he is more likely to play than sit and would be a solid option priced under 10K on DK with 60+ DKP upside. If he is out then Tobias Harris & Ben Simmons are too cheap priced under 8K. This would give Sabonis a much easier matchup inside and love his price at 9100 with no Embiid. Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley also become elite value plays as one of them will smash and the other will lay an egg.
CLEVELAND vs. MINNY:
MIN is allowing 244.1 total DKP points per game and that is the highest of all 8 teams playing tonight on the main slate. The majority of those points are going to the guards and center positions. Guards are putting up 58.9 and centers 55.9 which is a massive amount. Andre Drummond is a solid GPP play. I was off him with the Jarrett Allen trade but in this 24-28 minutes he is playing he has 60 DKP upside and pushing 1.60 FPPM. He had 33 DKP last game vs. NYK where they only scored 81 total points but the two games prior he put up 59.5 and 48.25 and those were in 28 minutes! I also don’t mind Jarrett Allen as he is only 5400 which is 3000 less and playing 20-26 minutes one of these guys is going to smash!
Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are also in play as the primary ball handlers. Collin Sexton is playing 30+ minutes per game and taking 15-20 shots and is almost guaranteed 5-8 assists with the big guys down low and the easy matchup they have. Darius Garland has his minutes back up playing 29 and 31 the last two games and he put up 33 and 26 DKPs and priced at only 5600.
I don’t like much from MIN with the exception of Anthony Edwards who has taken 13, 19, 13 and 14 FG attempts playing 29, 32, 27 and 20 minutes. He is only 5300 and put up 40 DKPs the game before last. He has a 3x-4x floor that could kill you but his upside on a short 4 game slate is there and he is SG/SF eligible filling the pesky SF spot.
BKN / WASHINGTON:
Like we stated above Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant would be solid plays if James Harden were to miss. I prefer KD over Irving due to the upside in recent games. Kyrie is a solid 45-50 DKP play and great for cash but KD has shown the upside hitting 77 DKPs just 4 games ago. If James Harden is playing I don’t want to prioritize any of the 3. DeAndre Jordan is showing up as a value play on most sites and he should be decent but playing 20-22 minutes and capping out at 6x doesn’t get me excited. Bruce Brown is only 3800 and just put up 26.25 DKPs in only 24 minutes hitting 9 of 11 FGs and fills in that SG/SF hole on DK. No one else for BKN is really going to explode and have the upside with the studs on the court and they are priced up so not a ton of value here.
Washington players should be targets on a 4 game slate. I mean this is projected for the highest paced game and both teams are giving up over 230 total DKPs per game. Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook have the upside but with both of them on the floor neither really smash. If you need 5x or 5.5x they are fine but I don’t love them even on this small slate. We saw Beal put up 70.5 DKPs with no Westy on the court but sits around 45 DKPs with him on the floor. BKN is terrible at rim protection so Rui Hachimura and Robin Lopez make for interesting plays. Alex Len is the player who has been getting it done as he is only 3500 on DK but his minutes are questionable at best with 17, 19, 6 and 21 over the last 4 games. He has put up 24.5 and 25.75 DKPs in the last two games.
TORONTO VS. ORLANDO
Fred VanVleet is the man again in Toronto putting up 50, 47 and 46.5 DKPs in his last 3 games and he is only 7700. While Kyle Lowry has 28, 34 and 17.5. I much prefer the VanVleet play right now to Lowry due to recent performance and FPPM production. VanVleet is sitting at 1.22 on the year and Lowry at 1.15 but over the last 5 games Lowry is down to 0.90 and VanVleet is 1.16. Pascal Siakam is a priority play for me today if Normal Powell is ruled out. He is 7600 but he should cruise past 40 DKPs and play 36+ minutes. Normal Powell is doubtful so I don’t expect him to play but if he does he has been smashing with 41.3 and 43 DKPs in his last two games so keep an eye on the breaking news. Chris Boucher is unplayable right now with 27 total minutes in his last two games. He is a stud but he is not getting the minutes for some reason, sit and wait until this stabilizes and he gets hot again.
Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier are all GPP plays. They are up and down and anyone could blow up any game for any reason. Over the last 3 games Vucevic hit a high of 57.5 DKPs and a low of 18.5. Aaron Gordon was on fire for awhile and now has back to back games under 21 DKPs and still priced at 7K. Evan Fournier is the lowest priced of the 3 at 6500 and is coming off a dud game of only 20 DKPs but prior to that game he has put up 42, 36, 35 and 46 DKPs giving him the most GPP upside of the 3. Nothing exciting with Orlando as they play slow with low team totals.
PHILLY VS. INDY
This game should play at a slow pace and both teams don’t give up a ton of fantasy points so I would limit your plays here to 2 per team. As stated above in the news section Joel Embiid is a solid play if he is able to go and I would guess that he is going to play. He has hit 58+ DKPs in 3 of the last 4 games giving him a solid floor and big upside priced under 10K. If he is unable to go then Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley become elite value plays with one of them smashing value.
Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are extremely cheap and if Joel Embiid is out then I love playing at least one of them in your lines. If he is in then I still don’t mind either one as they are both under 8K and one of them is always hitting 5x value and most of the time at least 6x. It is worth noting that looking through our NBA Cheathseet they both don’t pop 6x+ at the same time so DON’T PLAY BOTH OF THEM in the same lineup. Tobias Harris is more stead putting up 38-43 DKPs in 4 of his last 5 games so I prefer him for cash but for GPP I prefer Ben Simmons who is more of a roller coaster. Ben Simmons has games of 28 and 25 in 2 of his last 4 and then 54 and 49 in the other two. Bigger ceiling and lower floor = GPP and stead consistent = CASH. Domantas Sabonis is only 9100 and becomes a priority play for me if Joel Embiid is out as his matchup suddenly gets much easier. Sabonis is the main guy for IND and in his last 5 games he has two over 55 DKPs, two in the 41-45 range and one of only 18. Malcolm Brogdon is a decent play but Ben Simmons defense is solid so I will be lower weight on him.
Our DVP breakdown will show you the projected pace of the game and we also added an indicator for "pace up" and "pace down" games. You can see total fantasy points allowed, fantasy points allowed to the position, % of total points and then the fantasy points for the players that are playing multiple positions. Not seen in this screen shot we also have the FG% allowed, real life points allowed and rebounds allowed to the position incase you want to be really sneaky.
TIERS CONTEST BREAKDOWN:
For the TIERS contest on DK we have added in ownership % for the players to help you make better decisions. You can also see the DKPs over the last 10 games, usage rates, FPPM comparisons for season over last 5 games, projection minutes and our own GPP algo model to help you pick the best players.
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