NBA Player Props & CheatSheet TIPS for Monday!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I hope everyone had a great Christmas and I have enjoyed the days off. I'm off work all week so wanted to focus on some website content for everyone and show people how I dig into player props. If you are on Prize Picks then you only have one line to pick from but if you are on other sportsbooks you can choose the alt lines and move them up or down for better odds or a better chance to hit. We will discuss these below!
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PLAYER PROP #1 - JEREMY SOCHAN
In the screen shot above you can see the screen shot from the "Prop Tool" tab on our NBA CheatSheet. I revamped this so you could see the current projections and the recent game logs and included the DK/FD salaries for those DFS players. What I LOVE to find on DK SGP's is something like this where we have 2 point prop increases and dramatically better odds. You can see we are looking at the PRA and we can choose 14 / 16 / 18 / 20 / 22 and we can go from (-550) up to (+205). Sochan was playing 16-20 minutes and then the last 3 games he has played 26, 31 and 23 minutes and projected for 27 minutes tonight. In those 3 games he put up a PRA of 26, 38 and 21. I prefer to hit something in the 16-20 range as laying (-550) is too much but jumping from 14 to 16 you can go from (-550) to (-270) or even (-150). Now, if you haven't noticed the CATCH FOR DK is the (-500) or better for their BOOST AND PROMOS so you will see some slam dunk lines but they are (-525) making them boost ineligible but the larger jump goes all the way down to (-225) making it a little more risky. With the odds below you can go 16+ and put into a nice SGP that is eligible for the DK boost or even go 22+ (+205) and generate a huge payout with a much lower risk.
PLAYER PROP #2 - JORDAN CLARKSON
On "Prize Picks" Jordan Clarkson 3PM prop is 2.5 and he has been over that 5 games in a row putting up 4, 3, 3, 3 and 7. This game has a massive 235.5 total so like him to go over again. Below you can see the DK Same Game Parlay odds going from (-330) which is great for a SGP boost up to 4+ at (+220). If you want to do something fun you could take Clarkson 3+ 3PM and Sochan PRA 22+ and that pays a whopping (+750)! The fun thing about PROPs is that it just depends on your risk reward tolerance. You can bet a little and take a shot at a lottery ticket payday or you can put down larger money on something safer with a higher hit rate. I'm just trying to teach you how to dig through the cheatsheets and find the plays that make sense!
PLAYER PROP #3 - TOP SCORING PLAYERS IN A GAME
What do you notice in this screen shot above? Chicago has 3 main guys who score the majority of the points in DeRozan, LaVine and Vucevic. I don't think we will ever see a game where Patrick Williams, Ayo Dosunmu or Coby White is the leading scorer. If you want to "play it safe" you can take DeRozan 20+ with LaVine 15+ points -OR- you can look at something like what I have below. The parlay below at (+140) has hit 5 of the last 6 games and based on the odds we only need this to hit 42% of the time.
BONUS TIP: There isn't much wiggle room for LaVine & DeRozan to take a larger plus money points prop but VUCEVIC you definitely can if you want a higher payout. I like this because it goes up by 2 and the odds go up dramatically. Vucevic has 20+ points in 4 straight games and if you take 20+ it's a whopping (+160)!
PLAYER PROP #4 - HITTING THE CEILING WHEN A PLAYER IS RULED OUT!
Zion Williams is "doubtful" for the game tonight and the news just came over the radio as I was writing this article. I quickly scrolled over to the Pelicans game as I wanted to see what CJ McCollum has done when Zion was OUT. We wen see Zion was out each of the last 2 games and CJM put up 17 points and then 40 points! Looking at DK odds (in the screen shot below) you can see 30+ is (+225) and 35+ is (+650). But at a whopping number like that we only need it to win a small percentage of the time. I prefer to take a 20+ in a same game parlay and get the bonus or go up to 25+ but if you want to get crazy 30+ would generate a HUGE payday!
PLAYER PROP #5 - CJ MCCOLLUM 3PM
McCollum 3PM shots is juicy tonight at OVER 2.5 is (-140) on DK and he has put up 3, 7, 6, 4 and 3 over the last 5 games. With no Zion he could take a few more shots.
PLAYER PROP #6 - KEVIN DURANT & KYRIE IRVING (TOP SCORERS)
One leg that I'm going to attack tonight will have: Kyrie Irving PRA 30+ & Kevin Durant 20+ points (-135). You can see Kyrie has been OVER this in each of his last 5 games and Kevin Durant has been OVER this in each of his last 6 games and putting them together gets our leg down to only (-135).
WANT TO GO HIGHER? You think Brooklyn can knock off Cleveland at home? Cleveland is 16-3 SU at home but Brooklyn is 12-1 over the last 13 games and they have won their last 2 games by 18 and 30 points! Add Brooklyn's alt line at (+10.5) to drive this down to even money -OR- Broolyn MONEYLINE will make this (+205)!
CO-ORDINATED PLAYER PARLAYS
I am NOT telling you to make this play, I'm using this as an example to show you how to find nuggets in the NBA cheatsheet. What do you notice in the screen shot below? HOU is horrible but the last 2 games they WON Jalen Green put up 26 and 30 points. So, you can come to the conclusion that IF Houston WINS Jalen Green usually goes off. Draftkings you can take HOU (moneyline) + Jalen Green 25+ points and this pays +550. These are the types of nuggets that you can find digging through the stats!
BEWARE OF THE DRAFTKINGS BOOST REQUIREMENTS!
I don't want to bash DK but I do want to point out that they do some "tricky shit". So, on the DAILY BOOST if your LEG is over (-500) it won't count toward the boost and some of them require all legs to be under (-500). A perfect example is the Donovan Mitchell Points prop as seen in the screen shot above. You can take 20+ which feels almost "lock-ish" but if you want it to count toward a boosted SGP if you have to jump to 25+ which is only 2-2 over the last 4 games vs. the 20+ is 6-1 over the last 7.
MY FIRST SAME GAME PARLAY FOR TONIGHT:
I want to share my first SGP bet that I made today while writing this article. We discussed most of these above but I added Collin Sexton OVER 8.5 points. He played his first game in awhile back on 12/22 and played 17 minutes putting up 18 points and projected for another 20 points tonight so glad to take a prop line at half that number which knocks this up from (-105) to (+130).
If you start adding legs that are "plus" money it really drives up the payout.
1 UNIT to win 5.96 UNITS
Hope you enjoyed reading the article and I hope it helps you find some nuggets in our Cheatsheets!