PLAYER PROP breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Player props are extremely fun to mix and match and put together based on game theory and recent performances. Most of our player props are found using our “PROPs” tab on the NBA cheatsheet by comparing the prop line with their daily projection and last 7 and last 15 day performances. The guys that jump out I go and look at their recent game logs.
To find a safe leg I look at their last 5 game floor and subtract 2 points and if I can get a good line that is a “Safe” leg to add into a parlay. If I want a higher payout I look at something that player has done in 3 of last 5 or 4 of last 5 that is plus big money in a decent matchup and start putting those together. These are just some of the plays that I like so feel free to play them all or mix and match a couple to get a payout that you are comfortable with! Good Luck and have fun with it!
PROPS THAT WE LIKE:
JAMES HARDEN ASSISTS
ANALYSIS: Trying to figure out a good angle for this Brooklyn game with Kevin Durant likely back and James Harden Assists jumps out at me. I went back through game logs of the last 4 times they were both on the court which was 12/10, 12/07, 12/4 and 12/3 and he had 11, 12, 14 and 9 assists.
THOUGHTS: If Kevin Durant is back tonight I like attacking the Harden assists prop. They look like this on the odds board: (This is for AT LEAST the number so if they hit this number it’s a win.)
9 @ (-278) – This appears to be a safe floor if you want to add it to a parlay leg.
10 @ (-118)
11 @ (-104) – Anywhere in this 11-12 range will give you good odds to mix in.
12 @ (+129)
13 @ (+227) – Long shot range but definitely possible, don’t mind as straight bet.
14 @ (+409)
NIKOLA JOKIC REBOUNDS
ANALYSIS: Joker has been an animal on the glass this year putting up 18, 22 and 21 rebounds in just his last 3 games. They just played GSW with no Draymond Green and he ripped off 18 rebounds on the road. Now they play at HOME and Draymond Green is still out so he should have a field day in this spot! Jokic averages +2.2 more rebounds at home than on the road.
THOUGHTS: This is a prime spot so the odds will dictate where I want to be, here are the following odds and the spots that I like to target for my parlays.
12 @ (-323)
13 @ (-222)
14 @ (-130) – Sweet spot based on the odds, dropping to -222 hurts but -114 not that much of a bump. So this prop would be OVER 13.5 or AT LEAST 14 boards.
15 @ (-114)
16 @ (+114)
17 @ (+169) – He just dropped 18 against them so if we take off a board and we can still get plus big money in this spot.
18 @ (+250)
19 @ (+400)
I like taking a +227 bankroll builder on this for a couple units.
ANDREW WIGGINS POINTS
ANALYSIS: Denver was all over Steph Curry in the last matchup so this should free up some shots from Wiggins. Curry and Wiggins are the two main scorers for the Warriors team.
THOUGHTS: I like this line on this as you can get over 17.5 (-116) and he has 21, 27 and 18 in his last 3 games. He just had 21 points of the 86 they scored in the last matchup.
JOEL EMBIID POINTS
ANALYSIS: He has 36, 36, 23, 41 and 32 over his last 5 games so I feel like getting the main guy for Philly in a prop is a good thing to follow.
THOUGHTS: You can get over 27.5 points (-120) which is great odds for his recent track record and they will need him tonight against Durant, Harden and Aldridge. For my parlay I dropped down to over 25.5 (-278) to be a little safer.
Adding in the other two players we can get this up to +675 for some extra action on this short 4 game slate tonight!
STRAIGHT PROPS THAT I LIKE:
Joel Embiid (Points + Rebounds + Assists) Prop – Over his last 5 games he has 51, 50, 35, 56 and 47 and the line right now is 41.5 (-130). I feel like that is a good line to jump on. You can go over 45.5 (+124) if you want a higher payout.
Kevin Durant (Points + Rebounds + Assists) Prop – Who knows what we get with him clearing protocol but feel like it’s worth a unit to take a shot on this. He has 53, 58 and 65 over his last 3 played games so guess what his line is for a normal wager amount? I would assume 48-52 somewhere would be around (-110) but it was 40 (-111), WOAH! What? 40? So over 39.5 or AT LEAST 40 and we win a unit? Yes please I’ll take a shot on that! He has 34, 34 and 51 POINTS in his last 3 games and he is always in that 7-10 REB and 7-10 AST range giving us plenty of places to grab some extra stats. If you want to get crazy the over 64.5 is (+833) but a safer shot would be over 54.5 at (+354) and even over 44.5 is (+154). But 40? Whatever your risk/reward is take a shot here!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze