PLAYER PROP breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Player props are extremely fun to mix and match and put together based on game theory and recent performances. Most of our player props are found using our “PROPs” tab on the NBA cheatsheet by comparing the prop line with their daily projection and last 7 and last 15 day performances. The guys that jump out I go and look at their recent game logs.
To find a safe leg I look at their last 5 game floor and subtract 2 points and if I can get a good line that is a “Safe” leg to add into a parlay. If I want a higher payout I look at something that player has done in 3 of last 5 or 4 of last 5 that is plus big money in a decent matchup and start putting those together. These are just some of the plays that I like so feel free to play them all or mix and match a couple to get a payout that you are comfortable with! Good Luck and have fun with it!
PROPS THAT WE LIKE:
DEMAR DEROZAN POINTS
ANALYSIS: Chicago Bulls are made up of 3 main scorers with LaVine, DeRozan and Vucevic. Bulls just played ATL and it was a 130-118 score and DeRozan had 35 points! Over his last 8 games he has put up 35, 24, 26, 38, 29, 34, 28 and 28 points.
THOUGHTS: You can take over 23.5 for (-238) and that feels pretty safe based on his recent performance. If you go up to over 25.5 you can lower that to (-127) and over 27.5 (+100). In 3 of his last 7 games he has 34 points so if you want to reach for the sky over 33.5 is (+185).
ZACH LAVINE POINTS
ANALYSIS: After looking at LaVine I almost prefer using him over DeRozan but either way all my prop parlays will have one or the other tonight. In LaVines last 6 games he has put up 30, 32, 33, 23, 32 and 31 points. He had a break from 12/12 to 12/25 where he was out so has played 2 games since his return putting up 32 and 30 points. But in 5 of his last 6 he has 30+ points.
THOUGHTS: His starting line is over 24.5 points (-182) and that feels pretty safe considering his recent performance and usage. You can move this to 26.5 (-111) or 28.5 (+112) and those feel like good odds. DeRozan has a line of 23.5 (-238) but has several games in the upper 20’s. LaVine is hitting 30 constantly and starting his line much lower with better odds. Looking at games with both LaVine and DeRozan on the floor we have the following:
12/27 – DER (35) + LAV (30)
12/26 – DER (24) + LAV (32)
12/04 – DER (29) + LAV (31)
12/02 – DER (34) + LAV (27)
11/29 – DER (28) + LAV (25)
You can also “build” a parlay and you can do something like DeMar DeRozan + Zach LaVine total points and that basic line is 58 (-120). What is funny is that you can lower that to only 32 total points but the line is (-5000). LOL. After playing this this you can combine them for over 45.5 points (-385) and I LOVE THAT!
MALIK MONK POINTS
ANALYSIS: Monk is projected for another 33 minutes tonight and if he gets the minutes he should smash this line. Over the last two games he has played 35 and 40 minutes and put up 25 and 20 actual points shooting 7/14 and 8/13.
THOUGHTS: You can get a wide range on this prop to add to your parlay. We can start at over 9.5 points (-625) and then move it up to over 15.5 (-105) which is a solid middle ground and then reaching for the sky over 23.5 (+367). I try to keep my parlays around even money to -150 for the bigger payouts and get a few into plus money. Safe parlays you can lay massive odds and just put a bunch of them together and those are always fun!
CAM REDDISH POINTS OR 3P SHOTS
ANALYSIS: ATL just played CHI and it was a massive 248 point output between the two teams. With no John Collins on the floor Cam Reddish went nuts hitting 8 3P shots out of 13 attempts and 33 points!
THOUGHTS: I would only use him for the “long shot/dart” parlays because he has a ton of variance. In the last 4 games he has 33, 10, 18 and 34 points so he has a floor of 10 but a ceiling in the 30’s. Over 15.5 points is (-312) but I’m not looking for a safe leg with the high variance play of Cam I want something bigger! His raw projection is 24.5 points so if we look at over 23.5 we jump to (+173) and I’m all for that! If you think he can hit the 30 mark again we can go over 29.5 points and get (+472) which looks like a fun massive payout option! If you want to get really crazy you can hammer his 3P shots made. He has 8, 1, 0 and 6 over the last 4 games. He has a chance of completely missing it but over 5.5 3P shots made is (+1380), Wow!
OTHERS TO WATCH – LINES NOT OUT YET THIS AM:
TYLER HERRO – Over his last 4 games he has 32, 2, 29 and 26 points so there could be some value in his points prop. MIA could also be short-handed tonight locking in his playing time. Jimmy Butler was on the court last game when he had his 32 points, 6 boards and 3 assists.
OMER YURTSEVEN – No lines out for him yet but I’m curious on his rebounds prop with 14, 15, 12, 13 and 12 over the last 5 games. He doesn’t do much for points or assists but killing the boards.
Thank you for reading and good luck!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!