NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
PLAYERS THAT WE LIKE ON THE SLATE TONIGHT!
JOEL EMBIID / DWIGHT HOWARD – DVP Smash Spot Alert! DET is allowing 59.2 DKP to the C position. Joel Embiid is coming off a 33 point 14 board game against this same team and is now Q. If he is unable to go Dwight Howard because a great value play for the slate. Last time we didn’t think Embiid was going to play he ended up playing 35 minutes. His last 3 games have been good for 58.5, 58.25 and 65 DK points and 10+ boards in EACH game! Priced under $10,000 he is definitely a viable option tonight!
STEPHEN CURRY – He has been as low as 7300 this year on DK and has high as 10,100. Now he is priced at 9200 which feels too cheap for his upside. His recent 5 games he has lows of 39-45 DKPs and a high of 59 which is causing his price to fall. He has hit 75 and 68 DKPs in the last 11 games so that give you a massive ceiling. He is in a DVP Smash Spot tonight as MIN is allowing 59.9 DKPs to the PG position. I don’t like him for cash but for GPPs he is a definite option.
DENVER vs. DALLAS PLAYERS – The total on this game opened in Vegas at 221.5 and has now moved to 223 with 97% of the money. Our custom model from our NBA Sports Betting Tool has this game hitting 231-246 with a 240 number the majority of the time. PICK SOMEONE FROM THIS GAME AND GET EXPOSURE! I don’t care who but just get a piece of this game. Here are some obvious choices:
NIKOLA JOKIC – I don’t like to spend money and paying 10,800 for a player doesn’t sit well with me. However, Joker has put up 66, 62, 56 and 72 DKPs in his last 4 and he is just smashing right now. Floor is 5x and should hit 6x in this game with a 7x ceiling.
JAMAL MURRAY – Love Love Love me some Murray tonight at only 7100! I was reading a breakdown article this morning from another site and they said to “fade Jamal due to his variance of games”. Funk that! He has put up 43.5 and 46.3 over the last two games and both are over 6x value and he is CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP in a pace up big total game. I will definitely lean on him and he is fine to pair with Jokic if you can afford it.
LUKA DONCIC – I don’t think this needs much explaining but Luka has an 87.5 DKP game just 5 games ago. He is expensive but his FPPM are up from 1.54 to 1.63 over the last 5 games.
WAYNE ELLINGTON – He is averaging a solid 31.3 minutes per game over the last 3 and has put up 31, 26 and 25 DKPs and priced at only 4200. He just played this PHI team and was 6 of 9 and put up an 8x value game. Too cheap!
GORDON HAYWARD – I have not played Hayward yet this year and that seems to have been a mistake on my part. He is coming off back-to-back games of 50+ DKPs and his price keeps falling. He was at 8400 and now down to 7300. He was sitting at 7700 and put up a 50 DKP game and then price fell to 7500. So he puts up another 57 DKP game and now it drops to 7300. He just played this game ORL team and took 25 FG attempts and put up 57.25 DKPs.
ISAIAH ROBY – I don’t want to play anyone on this OKC team but Roby I just can’t get away from. He is only 4600 and you can slide him into that pesky PF spot on DK if you are paying up for the Guards and Centers. For his price we need a floor of 23 DKPs and he has put up 30.5, 18 and 33 in his L3 games. Solid producer at a cheap price point.
KENDRICK NUNN – Yes we loved him at 3700-4000 and then his price jumped to 5400. At that price point he dropped 40 DKPs (with 47 DKPs in the prior game) and then he went up to 5600 where he had a 32 DKP game against this game BKN team. Now he is 6100. He is still going to play 30+ minutes but his price is high enough where he is not a slam dunk. I like him but he is far from a lock. He has 7x upside in a game where BKN doesn’t play defense so he has to be on our radar.
JAMES WISEMAN – Another DVP Smash Spot here as MIN is allowing 54.8 DKPs to the C position. He is priced at 5400 on DK so we need 25-30 DKPs to feel safe and he has put up 25, 30 and 34 over his last 3 games. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling but a consistent 5x-6x and is a solid cash game play if you are struggling for a value player.
ROBERT WILLIAMS – This guy is a perfect PUNT at the C position. He is sitting at only 3200 on DK which is near MIN PRICE and in 15 minutes per game he has hit 24 and 36 DKPS in 2 of his last 4. Now those other two games were only 10 and 16.5 DKPs but still good upside for a MIN PRICED PUNT.
TORONTO NEWS TO MONITOR:
Kyle Lowry & Pascal Siakam are both Q for tonight. If they miss then we likely see Normal Powell stay in the starting lineup where he has flourished the last two games. He has a 26.2 and 24.4 usage rate and played 37 and 32 minutes taking 18 FG attempts in both games. Those two games were good for 32 and 31.75 DKPs and his priced was 4300 then jumped to 4800. His is at 5200 tonight and playing the same IND team they just beat 107-102 so around 30 DKPs is a solid 6x. OG Anunoby is another guy that is playing really well right now and picking up the slack. If those guys miss he is a decent spot at 6900 coming off 53.5 DKPs vs. this same IND team where he was 9 for 16 with 8 boards and 5 STEALS!
I’m a little hyped up on this TOR team as I took 3rd in a small GPP over the weekend in a single entry tournament. I stacked the 4 TOR starters (hated Stanley Johnson and his usage – thus 4 instead of all 5) and then filled in with studs of Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm.
TOP BOOM% PLAYERS FROM OUR CHEATSHEET:
These are the top Boom% players on our NBA CheatSheet for the day, just another tool to help you narrow down your player pool.
Our DVP breakdown will show you the projected pace of the game and we also added an indicator for "pace up" and "pace down" games. You can see total fantasy points allowed, fantasy points allowed to the position, % of total points and then the fantasy points for the players that are playing multiple positions. Not seen in this screen shot we also have the FG% allowed, real life points allowed and rebounds allowed to the position incase you want to be really sneaky.
TIERS CONTEST BREAKDOWN:
For the TIERS contest on DK we have added in ownership % for the players to help you make better decisions. You can also see the DKPs over the last 10 games, usage rates, FPPM comparisons for season over last 5 games, projection minutes and our own GPP algo model to help you pick the best players.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!