QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
It's Thursday which means our NBA CheatSheet is posted in our FREE Facebook group for people to play with and it will be updated around 90 minutes prior to lock when we import the rest of the Prize Pick lines for the night! Today is a rainy day and I had some free time to wanted to focus on some picks and HOW I find them on the NBA CheatSheet.
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PRIZE PICK PLAYS:
TYRESE HALIBURTON OVER 33.5 POINTS + ASSISTS
The first guy that jumped out was Haliburton and when he gets HOT he is HOT! His Points + Assists over the last 5 games are 56, 40, 38, 29 and 36 giving him a 4-1 "OVER" on his number. Houston is allowing 118.4 PPG over the last two weeks and they are 29th in 3PM allowed, so what do you notice on the screen shot above? Look at the RED column on the middle right for 3PM and you see he has 5 and 6 3PM over the last 2 games so the DVP is setting up great for Haliburton.
BROOK LOPEZ OVER 20.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS
Lopez has been on quite the run lately putting up 32, 21, 32, 21, 23, 35 and 24 Points + Rebounds giving him a 7-0 "OVER" run. Brooklyn is 28th in REB allowed and 21st in PAINT POINTS allowed so the DVP is setting up good for Lopez.
JRUE HOLIDAY OVER 24.5 POINS + ASSISTS
I included two players here because I want to show people that you can see how players are doing when someone is IN or OUT of the game. This would be something I would look at to see how Khris Middleton playing affects the stats for Jrue Holiday. Jrue Holiday has been over his 18.5 points prop in 5 of 6 games (as you can see on the top left corner) and he has been over his 6.5 asssits prop in 5 of 6 games so I like taking the OVER his points + assists prop of 24.5. Look at the game on 2/26 for Holiday and what would of happened if you bet one of them instead of the combo - He put up 33 points and went way over his points prop but his AST dropped to only 5 because he was scoring so much and that would of lost.
MIKAL BRIDGES OVER 25.5 POINTS
Mikal is just an "auto-play" for me nightly but I typically bet same game parlays so I can get 20+, 22+, etc. but for this using the Prize Pick line as that is what the majority of people have access too. You can see his last 3 games he has 30, 33 and 38 points giving him an average around 33-34 PPG so glad to take a shot on the over 25.5. (NOTE: The reason I like points only is because he is a solid scoring machine that is hitting the over at a high clip. If you look at his REB he goes from 0, 8, 10, 3, 2 and that is just to sporadic for me to have any confidence in on a 5.5 line, it could go either way.) UPDATE: Spencer Dinwiddie is OUT which just gives an extra boost to Mikal Bridges!
IMMANUEL QUICKLEY - POINTS PROP - LINE PENDING
We don't have a points prop on Quickley but it's one I've been getting at 8+, 10+, 12+ on my same game parlays so curious to see what PP releases. He has 14 and 38 the last 2 games but Jalen Brunson was OUT and you can see that just looking on the sheet but when Jalen Brunson was playing he had 21, 15, 23, 13 and 16 so if I can get a decent line it's another one that I'm interested in. SAC is allowing 126.6 PPG over the last two weeks which ranks 30th and they are allowing the most 3PM shots at 15.9 per game which also ranks 30th. Looking at the RED LINE that is his 3PM shots per game and he has been solid with 3, 5, 5, 2, 4, 2 and 3 and in another good spot tonight.
POSSIBLE PICKS TO MONITOR:
KLAY THOMPSON 3PM SHOTS - He has 5 and 4 in the 2 games with Steph back and prior to that 4, 3, 3, 6 and even a 12 spot! Always a play to consider! No line at this time.
JAREN JACKSON JR. BLOCKS - With 2, 2, 3, 5 and 4 over the last 5 games 2+ feels like a lock or pretty safe bet. No line at this time but something to watch!
SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
NEW YORK KNICKS +125 OVER SACRAMENTO
This should be a great game as NYK are 9-1 over the last 10 games and SAC is 7-3 over the last 10. In their prior matchup the NYK won at home 112-99. First thing I'm looking at is the ROAD record and ATS for NYK and we see they are 20-12 SU and 22-10 ATS which is fantastic as most teams are under .500 when they hit the road. NYK have impressive wins knocking off BOS twice and MIA in just their last 5 games and they should get Jalen Brunson back tonight after his 2 game absence. (PRO TIP: Look at the screen shot below and you can see the game results, dates and opponents. What I'm focusing on here is how the NYK do with Jalen Brunson in the lineup. The 2 games without him they lost and squeaked out a 2 point win over Boston. His prior 5 games they beat MIA by 2, crushed BKN by 24, crushed BOS by 15, Pelicans by 22 and WAS by 6.) Take NYK moneyline!
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-2.5) OVER MEMPHIS
This is a play that I'm leaning on right now. With Ja Morant OUT MEM has lost 2 games in a row by 9 and 6 points. GSW has played MEM twice this season but both while they were at home and they won 122-120 and 123-109. GSW are not as strong on the road but they have their star Steph Curry back in the lineup who just dropped a 40 spot. (NOTE: The reason I'm "leaning" on this play is because GSW have lost their last 7 road games SU so that makes me a little nervous. GSW are 27-7 SU @ Home but fall to 7-25 SU on the road. Hopefully, Curry can turn that around!)
MILWAUKEE / BROOKLYN OVER 231
This is another play that I'm leaning on but haven't pulled the trigger. MIL has a GREAT OVER record at home (22-11) and their last 4 games have combined for 257, 228, 263 and 256. Vegas opened this at 228.5 and it's already up to 233.5 which is a HUGE jump. Their last matchup was 118-104 (222 points) just 5 games ago but MIL was on the road and they are a 22-10 "UNDER" play while on the road. So prior matchup falling only 9 points off this total and MIL completely flips to an OVER play at home puts it on my radar. I will likely look for an ALT OVER on DK.
SAME GAME PARLAY ACTION:
The 3 legs above on a SGPx card pays +780 which is 7.8 to 1 odds.
RECAP OF ACTION DURING THE PRIOR WEEK:
Posted this +475 WINNER on March 6th on our Twitter account (@CheatSheetPros). Make sure to follow!
Picked up a couple decent bankroll builders using the NBA cheatsheet, I can't stress how much easier it makes your reserach having all the stats & game logs right next to each other and even pulling in the PrizePick lines!
This was one of my "darts" that was +830 that ended up coming through.
Took the risk on MIKAL 25+ points when he was hitting 30+ per game and paired with a lower Dinwiddie number for plus money.
Added in Shai + Steph who are the top scoring players from each team at a slightly lower alt line for a safer leg.
Kyrie AST has been smashing so grabbed his alt with Luka + Markanen PRA combos.
Anthony Davis was smashing without Lebron and it was HIGHLY LIKELY that he would be the top scoring player and (-120) was to good to be true so locked it in as I couldn't find anything else I wanted to add for a SGP.
Good Luck,
Haze!