NBA Sports Betting Report from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA went 3-1 or 2-2 last time I posted depending upon if you took Lakers game or Lakers 1H. We nailed both overs we posted and then lost the BKN over when they were shooting under 22%.
SIDES WE LIKE:
INDY (-2) OVER CHA
Vegas opened this game at IND +1 and now it’s out to -2 with 88% of the wagers. CHA is 29th in 3P% over their last 3 games and they are an upside down team. What does that mean Haze? That means their offensive efficiency is 1.06 and defensive is 1.12. What does that mean Haze? That means for every 100 possessions they are scoring 106 points and allowing 112 to the opponent. See how that is bad??? IND is at 1.11 on offense and 1.07 on defensive so at least they are right side up! Our model has this game at IND 115 vs. CHA 110. Tight game with IND taking it and covering the spread! BONUS: I don’t mind a sprinkle bet on the over 219.5 or parlayed into the IND side. These teams should play as a 2.16 efficiency x 103.5 possessions putting it over the total.
LAKERS (-3.5) OVER PHILLY
Lakers can always screw this up with LeBron and AD both Q tagged but they are Q tagged almost every game! We have this as a tight game on the NBA CheatSheet model but I personally like Lakers here. Lakers have been amazing on defense allowing a 1.014 defensive efficiency which is best in the NBA and even over the last 3 games they are allowing an even better 0.995 which is 2nd best in the NBA. Lakers are 14-4 and 10-0 on the road and they travel to Philly tonight to face the 12-6 76’ers who are a nice 9-1 at home. LeBron & Davis continue!
DENVER (-6) OVER MIAMI
We have this as Denver winning 120-102 so by a wide margin over the -6 Vegas spread. MIA is upside down in their efficiencies at 0.96 vs. 1.08 and DEN is a solid 1.14 vs. 1.09. DEN is also 8th and 11th in eFG% and 3P% over the last 3 games. They are also 3rd in total rebounds per game while Miami is 30th over the last 3. Denver is 10-7 and won 4 straight and Miami is on a 3 game slide LAY IT! BONUS: I also like taking DENVER team total points over as they are scoring 122.3 over the last 3 games and the total should be around 113.
BOSTON (-4) OVER SAS
Our custom model has Boston covering -4 in all 3 scenarios and by an average of 9 points. Our projected final score is 120-111. BOS is #1 in PPG over the last 3 and they are returning to full health finally! BOS is also #1 in eFG% and 2nd in 3P% over the last 3 games. Ride them while they are hot!
TOTALS WE LIKE:
DET/CLE OVER 215
Both of these teams projected “middle of the road” in pace and they should average around a 2.16 efficiency number. We have this at 102 possessions on the LOW end x 21.6 = 220 points. Custom model has this at 222. Vegas set this too low!
DENVER/MIAMI OVER 219.5
Vegas opened at 221 and now it’s down to 219.5 but 96% of the wagers are still on the over. We have this game at 120-102 = 222 total points. DEN is playing at the 2nd fastest pace over the last 3 games and MIA is playing very slow at the 25th pace. These teams should average out around 2.14 x 103.5 possessions = 221 points. It should fall close but I’m betting the over as this DEN team is 2nd in PPG over the last 3, pace it up for the WIN!
BOSTON/SAS OVER 223
Vegas opened this at 225 and now down to 223 with 94% of the wagers on the over. These teams combined PPG is 236 and allowed 224 over the last 3. That main thing I want to show is that both of these numbers are OVER the total. Pace on the season they are 21st and 15th and over the last 3 games they are 7th and 11th so picking it up a tad bit. BOS is hot right now and back to full health putting up 123.3 PPG over the last 3 which ranks as tops in the NBA. Our model has this game at 120-111 = 231 total points. These two teams should play around a 2.20 efficiency and we have this anywhere from 103.3 – 104.5 possessions putting it over.
BONUS: Parlay all 3 Totals to go OVER for a bigger payday!
UTAH (-2.5) OVER DALLAS
This was a target game for me but Donovan Mitchell is out. When checking the offensive ratings they score around 7 points less per 100 possessions with Mitchell OFF the court. I still lean Utah but with Donovan out I downgraded it. With Donovan Mitchell ON the court we have this 124-106 and if you remove the 7 points that still puts it 114-106 so we like it, just don’t love it!
ATLANTA (MONEYLINE) OVER BKN
I think we can always sprinkle a little on the team playing BKN and hit the money line for a good payday. They are +6 right now and I have not looked at the ML but guessing it around +160 to +185. We have this is as a tight game in our model and since BKN can’t rebound Clint Capela and John Collins should grab a ton of boards. Trae Young is a solid PG that can get the job done. Worth a shot the way the have been playing!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!