NBA Sports Betting Report from CheatSheetPros!
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PHILLY / DETRIOT – OVER 217
They just played and with Joel Embiid on the court they put up 224 total points. Vegas opened this at 217 and still 217 with over 90% of the bets on the over. The two teams are a combined 18-15 to the “over”. Our model has this game projected at 227 total points. These two teams are at the 5th and 8th fastest pace on the season. This game should play around at 2.13 combined offensive efficiency and around 104-107 total possessions. That puts this game safely at around 2.13 x 104 = 221 points for the low end. Take a unit on the OVER 217.
BROOKLYN / MIAMI – OVER 235.5
BKN plays no defense and their games are 13-5 for the “overs” (72.2%) so until things change this is just an “auto-bet” for me. Vegas opened at a whopping 235 and now up to 235.5 with 72% of the bets. Our model has this game projected with a range of 231-244 and the average sitting at 236. So yes we are close to Vegas and I usually like a “cushion” but not here. BKN is #1 in offensive PPG and they are #1 in defensive PPG allowed over the last 3 games (4th on the season). The efficiency in this game should average out to around 2.20 and the possessions could run anywhere from 104-110. So if you run 2.2 x 104 possessions which I think is the absolute MIN that puts you at 228 total points which is under the 235.5 However, BKN will pace up this game as they play at the 4th fastest pace and they are 2nd in eFG% and 5th in 3P% over the last 3. We have BKN 121-115.
DENVER / DALLAS – OVER 223
Vegas opened this at 221.5 and now it’s at 223 with 90% of the bets. DAL has played at a slow pace (24th) while DEN is playing at the fastest pace of the last 3 games and 15th on the season. DEN is 12-4 for the “over” (75%) and they should pace up this game to get over the league average possession number of 104. We have this sitting around 105-106.5 possessions with a combined efficiency of 2.21 and that puts us around 230 for the “low end”. Our model actually has this game with a range of 231-247 with a projected final of DEN 126 v. DAL 114. Those numbers seem crazy high for the total but that gives me enough cushion to lay a bet on the OVER 223 here.
LAKERS (-10.5 OR TAKE 1ST HALF SPREAD)
This game is a clear mis-match on paper but who knows if LeBron James or Anthony Davis might sit and skew the stats. I’m leaning on a first half bet here and if that doesn’t cover then taking the second half spread. Laying double digits in the NBA is tough but the Lakers are the team I’d want to back if I am doing it. Lakers are 10-7 vs. the spread (58.8%) and they are 9-0 on the road this year. If you look at my NBA model you see this is projected to be a “closer” game. However, the Lakers are a team that you can’t model like the rest of the NBA. CLE just played BKN and beat them twice putting up a ton of points so their stats are skewed. Lakers DEF is dominating and pulls down the offensive efficiency of any team. Lakers allowing a LEAGUE BEST 1.009 defensive efficiency on the season which is why the “unders” are hitting in 70.6% of their games.
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