NBA Sports Betting Report (March 7th, 2020) from CheatSheetPros!
Definitions & References:
O/E is offensive efficiency and that is how many points scored per 100 possessions.
D/E is defensive efficiency and that is how many points allowed per 100 possessions.
PLAYS TO CONSIDER:
SUGGESTED PLAY: CHA +8
VEGAS LOOK: Only 11% of the money on CHA and total dropped from 222 to 219.
PROJECTED SCORE: We have this ranging from Houston winning by 5 to CHA winning by 7.
ANALYSIS: Westbrook and Eric Gordon are both out tonight. Houston is -15 in rebounds their L3 games. Recent games CHA lost to Denver by only 2, Spurs by 1 and MILW by only 8. Houston lost by 15 to the Clippers, by 2 to the NYK and beat BOS by 1. Take the points here.
SUGGESTED PLAY: UTAH -8 <My 2ndfavorite pick!>
VEGAS LOOK: 81% of the money on Utah right now.
PROJECTED SCORE: Utah 116 vs. DET 101.
ANALYSIS: Utah has won 4 straight and 4-4 since the break while DET is off 2 straight losses and 1-5 since the break. Utah has the advantage in rebounds, blocks and steals giving them the edge. Their O/E is ahead at 1.15 vs. 1.09 and they also lead in D/E at 1.06 vs. 1.12. Got to lay the points here.
SUGGESTED PLAY: DEN -9.5
VEGAS LOOK: 65% of the bets on DEN.
PROJECTED SCORE: Denver 122 vs. CLE 107
ANALYSIS: I think this game is going to be slightly closer than our projected margin but I think Denver can pull off a cover here. CLE has lost 4 straight (6 by Boston, 13 by Utah, 9 by Indy and 12 by the Pelicans). Denver hasn’t exactly been fire on the other side beating CHA by only 2 as a -9.5 point favorite, losing by 16 to GSW but then they beat TOR by 15 and got crushed by the Clippers. I think this is a pretty good line on the game but I think this is one where we see the rebounding get stupid in favor of Denver. They are allowing the least amount of boards and grabbing the 3rd most offensive boards per game.
SUGGESTED PLAY: MEM -6.5 <My favorite pick!>
VEGAS LOOK: 96% of the bets on Memphis right now.
PROJECTED SCORE: Memphis 129 vs. ATL 93
ANALYSIS: So take the projected score with a grain of salt because there is a massive rebounding disparity here and that is skewing it. But -6.5 is an easy pick. These teams just played on March 2ndand MEM waxed them 127-88. Number wise this one is not even close but NBA has ups and downs to temper expectations. ATL is losing their last 3 by an average of 11 points while MEM is winning by 17.7 points. Memphis is +13 is boards the L3 while ATL is -10.6 – that is a HUGE gap! Memphis is also leading the O/E at 1.11 vs. 1.03 and leading the D/E by a HUGE margin 0.94 to 1.14! Memphis!
THOUGHTS ON THE OTHER TWO GAMES:
PORTLAND (-2.5) vs. SACRAMENTO
As far as I can tell this is going to be a tight game and Vegas also agrees with the low spread. If I had to pick a side I’d go with Portland at home laying the -2.5. We have them projected to win 124-115 and 119-115 so both models I like covering the spread. Portland is running their O/E at 1.21 vs. only 1.12 by SAC and their D/E is also slightly better at 1.10 vs. 1.14. Portland is allowing scoring 11 more points per 100 possessions than they are allowing. Portland is also hitting the 3 ball at a 44% clip which is +8% better than SAC. SAC has been better on the boards and we have seen a +5 advantage turn into +15 for the game and 10-12 extra points.
GOLDEN STATE (PICK) vs. PHILLY
So I NEVER pick GSW correctly, I’m always wrong on them so I throw stats out the window and just fade it altogether. We have this going both ways in different models. Philly has been terrible on the road with a 10-23 spread but GSW is only 7-25 at home. Both teams have a negative margin their L3 games. Philly is scoring 11 points more per 100 possessions but also allowing 9 points more per 100. This game is a toss up to me and if you have an edge on it please let me know!
MY PARLAY FOR THE DAY!
NBA: Memphis -6.5
NBA: Utah -8
NCAAB: Middle Tenn ST -3.5
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze