NBA Sports Betting Report from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Sorry yesterday I didn’t like much outside of Utah (1H) so I didn’t write an article and decided to start doing my taxes. Last article post our plays were fire and went 6-1 and even though I haven’t went back and looked at the NBA sheet last night I got several messages that the totals smashed yesterday. Let’s look at some plays for tonight!
Article Plays 2.01 went 6-1:
Lakers under 219 - WINNER! - Easy pick with Lakers hitting the under over 70%.
Houston over 223.5 - WINNER! - Another smash over that was never in doubt!
SAC over - Tough Loss - Almost got there but ultimately our only loss on the night.
MILW over 235 - WINNER! - Another over for a "W".
CHA +6.5 - WINNER! - Model had CHA winning 112-99 as a dog, actually won 129-121!
MEM +3.5 - WINNER! - Model had MEM winning 113-110 as a dog, actually won 133-102!
DAL under 218 - WINNER! - Squeaked out another Dallas under win!
MILW/IND OVER 233
Vegas opened at 232 and now slightly up to 233. We love MIL overs as they are hitting 60% of the time. Our range of outcomes is 236-239 so a really tight window with a high efficiency projected at 2.27 between these two teams. Over the last 3 games these teams play at the 6th and 9th fastest pace and they are 11th and 8th on the year. We have this modeled at slightly over 104 projections and with a 2.27 projected efficiency that is 236 points. Next, I want to check on recent shoot percentages to make sure the teams are playing solid. MIL ranks 2nd and 5th in eFG% and 3P% and IND is 5th and 12th so we are good there. These teams combined 24-16 for the over both hitting at 60%+.
CHA (+7) OVER PHILLY – CHA/PHI OVER 223
This is a game that I’m torn on but I’m going to be on +7 or over 223 tonight. PHI is playing great right now and they have won 3 straight and they are 10-0 vs. CHA in their last 10 meetings. However, what jumps out to me is that PHI is 10-1 at home but on the road they are only 5-5 and score 8 less points per 100 possessions. CHA is red hot right now and getting 7 points seems like a fair amount to grab. CHA has won 3 straight and scored 126 and 129 points in their last 2 games beating MIA and MIL. The more I look at the game I’m also on the over 223 here. I love betting overs! Our range is 225-231 and the Vegas number opened at 222 and is up to 223. Our model has Philly winning this game 115-114 and putting up around 230 total points. These teams are playing at the 8th and 10th fastest pace over the last 3 and we have the efficiency projected at 2.19. CHA is also 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
HOUSTON/OKC OVER 222:
Houston has been money on the over for us. This game opened at 224 and now down to 222 and that is mainly because SGA is out for the game. Now what does that mean? SGA off the court is a significant impact taking the offensive rating down from 110 to 97.9 but it has the opposite effect on the pace that goes from 99.4 to 102.0. Theo Maledon plays at a fast pace but not as good of a shooter. I’m watching this today to see if I can get that total down to 220.5 or 221 before betting it since it is trending down. These two teams play at the 3rd and 4th fastest pace over the last 3 and should run between 2.14 – 2.18. If we look at the low side of 2.14 (since SGA is out) and give them a low 104 possessions that is 222 points right at the Vegas number. Now I do think that is low because we have this projected at 106 possessions giving us a little cushion.
GAMES THAT I HAVE A LEAN ON:
DAL/ATL UNDER 223
Opened at 224 and now 223. Our range is 217-225 so we have the majority of outcomes going under 223. ATL is hitting the under 75% of time with a 15-5 record for unders and DAL is 13-8 hitting 61.9% of the time. DAL is 27th in pace on the season and 19th ove the last 3 games and ATL is playing at a consistent pace as they are 12th on the season and 11th over the last 3. We project this around 101-102.5 possessions and a 2.17 pace. Our model has this game 112-107 so squeaking out an under play.
CLIPPERS (1H) OVER CLEVELAND
Vegas open this game at LAC -8.5 and now LAC -7.5, I prefer the first line because you see things like last night with Utah. They were -12 for the game and won by 12 but they were up 69-46 at the first half. If the LAC were down at the half you can get another shot at the win hitting the 2nd half play. 100% of the spread bets are on CLE right now but if Kawhi and PG are in then I love the Clippers side who sit at 13-9 ATS for 59.1%. We have this game modeled at 114-99 and winning by 15 points. LAC sit at 9th and 10th in eFG% and 3P% over the last 3 while CLE is 30th and 30th and Andre Drummond is questionable.
WAS/MIAMI OVER 229.5
The red flag is that WAS in 26th in 3P% over the last 3 games and we have a range of outcomes from 226-242 so around 25% of the time this game will squeak under. However, we follow the majority of outcomes and that is the over. We have this game at 234 total points. WAS plays at the fastest pace on the season and 5th fastest over the last 3 games so I expect them to push the pace here and bring MIA up from their 17th pace. This game should run at 104-106 possessions and should play anywhere between 2.21 and 2.30 and that is why we get the wide range of outcomes. Looking at the “low” side we have 104 possessions x 2.21and that gives us 229 points right at the Vegas line. That is the “low” side so leaning over here.
PARLAY MIX:
I love to mix in an NHL game with a couple NBA games for a solid parlay. Tonight, Tampa Bay is the team I’m mixing into the parlay. They are a high -330 so I may look at the puck line. Colorado Avalanche have been money for me this year and tonight going with TB!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze