NBA Sports Betting Report from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Let me start by saying this is a small 5 game slate and there are no “lock” plays that I see tonight but I’m going to shoot you straight and break it down for you!
UTAH (1H) OVER ATLANTA
NBA games pushing double digit spreads I tend to take a different approach on. I bet the 1H and then if they are down I hammer back the 2nd half so it gives me two changes for a win. I wrote this up on Utah a few days ago and they smashed the 1H line as they were up 69-46 at the half and ended the game right on the Vegas number for a push if you took the game line. Last night is a perfect example, I wrote up Clippers 1H and hammer 2H line if they did not cover it. So how did it play out? Clippers were up 52-49 at the half and the second half they ended up pulling away 121-99. So back to our game tonight. UTAH is -8.5 for the game so take the 1H and then hammer it out in the 2nd half if they don’t cover it. I also don’t mind just hitting them at -8.5 if you don’t want to mess with halftime lines. Utah is 9-1 in their last 10 games and 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games. They played ATL back on January 15th and beat them 116-92. Now let me mention my NBA sheet has this game modeled at Utah winning by only 4 so this is “my pick” going against my NBA model.
PHILLY (1H) OVER PORTLAND
Same concept as above. Philly is -10 and while I don’t mind that I prefer to split this into two separate plays. So my “best play of the day” was PHI/POR over 222, I thought that was a slam dunk but before I could write it up Damian Lillard was ruled OUT for tonight. So, when that happens I go check the ON/OFF court numbers and it was HUGE! With Lillard on the court they play at a 100.3 pace and 119.5 offensive rating and with him OFF the court they play at a 97.1 (slow) and the offensive rating drops down to 102.4. That is a 17 point drop! That has me flipping off the total and going to back Philly who sits at 10-1 at home and has 7 of their last 8 games.
LEAN PLAYS – HAVEN’T DECIDED IF I WILL BET THESE OR NOT BUT I WILL GIVE YOU MY TWO CENTS:
HOUSTON/MEMHIS OVER 224
After that horrible show last night of only 87 points I completely understand the hesitation on taking an “over” that is why it fell into the “lean” section. Oladipo couldn’t get it done last night so now Wall has a change who has been more efficiency and holding a higher usage than Dipo so let’s see what happens. We have this game modeled at 2.17 x 104 possessions on the low end putting us at 225.6 points. The range of outcomes is 229-238 so even if we are off this should be close. 86% of the public is on the under but the total has moved up 0.5 in some spots to 224.5.
MEMPHIS (-3) OVER HOUSTON
Did you see that game last night? How do I not sprinkle a unit on the Memphis side after that. Houston went from scoring 126 vs. the Pelicans to 136 vs. OKC and then got shut down by OKC 104-87. They only scored 87 total points! Horrible! Memphis has not less than 116 points in their last 3 games putting up 116, 133 and 129. MEM beat a tough PHO team by 4, beat a tough PHI team by 2 and even bean BKN by 5. They had won 7 straight before the last game where they lost to IND 134-116. Back on track tonight!
DALLAS/GSW UNDER 228.5
Everyone is on the OVER! It’s one of the top consensus plays and over 80% of the money is on the over but I’m leaning to the under here. These teams are a combined 25-18 for the “under” each hitting at 57.1% and 59.1%. I have this game modeled at 217 total points and my range is 217-228. The one fluke here that is sitting in the back of my head is that GSW could really push the pace and if they get this up from 101-102 possessions to 106-107 it will squeak over. GSW will also be without Wiseman and Looney for this game so Curry should see a ton of shots from downdown. So I lean the under but don’t love it.
DALLAS (-3) OVER GOLDEN STATE
I likely won’t be this game but I’ll give you my thoughts on it. Dallas has a tough run of games playing PHO twice and then Utah twice before that. In those 4 games they never got over 108 points as a team against those solid defenses. Then last night they went to ATL and put up 122 points winning 122-116. They should pick things back up and I really hope Porzingis can play tonight because that is a huge bump for them. GSW are without Wiseman and Looney also. DAL is 8-2 vs. GSW ATS in their last 10 matchups. They are winning with an average of 120-111. My NBA model has DAL by 2 so it is too close to the spread but would lean Dallas to get back on track here.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!