NBA Sports Betting Report from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA totals continue to be more predictive than sides. Last night our totals range of outcomes ended up at 2-2 with a split game that hit so 3-2. We should of ended at 4-1 but took a horrible beat on the Denver under when it scored 23 points in OT. But that happens. The only other loss was by 4 points when the Laker game slit over the 223 number settling on 227. Let’s look at some plays for tonight.
NBA PLAYS TO CONSIDER:
PHX/DET OVER 216.5
Our model is giving us a range of outcomes from 222-246. Vegas opened this at 218.5 and is now 216.5. This is a clear “pace down” game with PHO playing at the slowest pace in the league. Even if you project this game to “pace down” and give it 96-98 possessions which is way under league average we still have it going over. The offensive efficiencies for these teams are 1.17 and 1.13 over the last 3 games meaning they are scoring points. Both teams are also allowing a ton of points with their defensive efficiencies at 1.19 and 1.14. These two teams should average out at 2.32 per 100 possessions. 2.32 x 96 possessions (which is really low) puts as at 222.7 total points. 96 possessions is really low as PHO is averaging 98.7 on the year and DET 106.4 and over the last 3 games they are at 96.1 and 103.4. As long as they shoot average this should slide over!
WAS/BOS OVER 235
Our model is giving us a range of outcomes from 240-252 which is a TON of points but also the Vegas spread is high at mid 230’s. Just like above both of these teams have great offensive efficiency numbers coming in at 1.17 for both. The defensive efficiencies are 1.12 and 1.11. If you average this out at 1.14 per team and 2.28 combined then we just need to come up with the number of possessions. Boston is 26th in pace and Washington is 2nd. Typically teams are going to play up to the higher paced team unless that team is a heavy favorite.
We have this projected for 106 possessions x 2.28 = 241 total points. We also have this game where it could get as high as 109 possessions and that would crush the total. One other factor that comes into play here is that these teams are what I consider “Hot” over the last 3 games in shoot percentages. WAS in 2nd in FG attempts, 6th in 3 point %, BOS is 5th and 6th in eFG% and 3 point %. Shots should be dropping!
TOR/SAC over 225
Finally! We get some over plays tonight after being on the “under” side for the majority of the season. Our model has this game at 114-113 for 227 total points going over the 225. Our range of outcomes is 224-237. You can see the lowest model puts this game right at the Vegas total so we obviously like the over here. On the season TOR plays at the 11th fastest pace and SAC the 10th. This is really close to the “pace up” game that we always talk about. This is a model game where they are between 103.5 – 105.5 possession per game for each time on the season and the last 3 games. With a range this small we can easily project the possessions to fall in this tight window so let’s look at 104.5 for the game. TOR is playing at a 1.11 OE (offensive efficiency) and SAC 1.04. TOR is at a whopping 1.19 DE (defensive efficiency) and SAC 1.15. If we average this out and combine them we come up with a 2.24 for the game x 104.5 possessions = 234 total points eclipsing the 225 Vegas number. The two teams combined PPG is at 220 on the season and 224 over the last 3. Defensively they are allowing a combined 230 and 244 over the last 3 games. TOR is also 5th in 3 point attempts over the last 3 games. Take the over!
OTHER GAMES WE ARE LEANING ON BUT DID NOT MAKE THE CUT FOR PLAY:
NOP/CHA OVER 218
Range of outcomes here is 218-226 so we are leaning over the total. The teams are 21st and 13th in pace on the year and 14th and 7th over the last 3 games. This should average out to a 2.12 x 103 – 105.5 possessions and that just slides in at 218 and slightly over. The red flag for me is that NOP have hit unders 63% of games and CHA is 75% of games hit the under. Also, NOP are shooting only 31% from 3 point land over the last 3 games which ranks 28th. I lean the over here if you are doing a big parlay but hesitate to recommend it to anyone. Model is showing an “over play” though.
NYK (-2.5) / OKC
All 3 of the models that I run has NYK winning this game by 9, 7 and 23 points so I’m laying the -2.5. The average of all the models has them winning 111-98. Our projected line has this at NYK -6.5. The red flag for me is that variance on NBA sides to start the season and that OKC is #1 in 3 point attempts over the last 3 games and averaging 21.7 MORE 3 pointers than NYK.
MIL (-5.5) / UTAH
This looks too obvious here. We have MIL winning by 16, 12 and 23 in our 3 models and if you average them out we have them winning 125-108 covering the low -5.5 number. MIL is 1st in eFG% over the last 3 games, 3rd in 3 point attempts and 1st in 3 point % over the last 3 games. They are winning games by an average of 18.3 points. If Giannis is playing then I’m leaning MIL here.
BKN (+1) / MEM
No Durant, No Kyrie, No problem! Brooklyn shocked the world and demolished Philly last night after the news broke that Kyrie wasn’t going to play. He didn’t travel with the team so he is also not playing tonight. Line opened at BKN -2 and is now +1 with money hitting MEM. MEM is 3-5 ATS for 37.5% and BKN was very impressive last night so I’m going against the public 3 point line shift and going with BKN here. MEM is 28th in eFG% and 26th in 3 point attempts over the last 3 games. BKN is 7th best in FG attempts and 4th in eFG% over the last 3 games.
HOU/ORL UNDER 222.5
I can’t bet this but there are arrows pointing to it. Vegas opened this at 227.5 and it’s all the way down to 222.5 for a 5 point shift to the under. Over the last 3 games HOU is playing at the 20th pace and ORL the 26th pace. During that same span these two teams combined PPG is only 205 and allowed PPG is 202. The efficiency stats break this game down at 2.02 x 105 possessions (which is high for what they are averaging) is 212 points. Range of outcomes is 200-215 but I can’t bet an UNDER with Houston involved.
Let me know your thoughts on these plays.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze