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NBA StatWise 2/23/19 & How I went 6-1.


So yesterday was my Aunts 75th surprise birthday party. I posted all of our cheatsheets and our StatWise sheets and then ran out the door hoping to get back in time for a quick update. I did make it back in time to update our fantasy cheatsheets but I had no time to research the NBA StatWise sheet. I opened the sheet and spent under 10 minutes picking out games and ended up going 6-1. I could of easily hit all the plays and ended with a better 11-4 record on the night but I wanted to play the safe games with less risk so I had something to sweat on a Saturday night. So I wanted to recap how I came up with my plays and how I quickly used the StatWise picks.


Games I played from the NBA Sheet and why: (6-1 Record)


BKN/CHA over 226.5 (Rated #3) – We had this game at 232 points for a #3 rating. I LOVE overs and #3 rated plays are the lowest plays I’m rolling with this week. It was on point as that total hit 232 on the dot going over the 226.5 number – WINNER #1.


LAL/NOR over 232.5 (Rated #2) – This was a high total but the “projected pace” we changed to on February 8th has proven itself accurate. This game had a projected pace of 111.1 (league average of 103.9) which is one of the highest I’ve seen this month. We had it pegged at 239.9 so let’s round up and say 240 points. Game scored 243 points covering the 232.5 total. – WINNER #2.


ATL -2.5 (Rated #2) – We had this game with ATL winning by a solid 10.6 points with a projected final score of 118-108 they ended up covering 120-112 for a solid cover. – WINNER #3.


DET +3.5 (Rated #2) – We had them winning 108-104 as a dog. They won 119-96 for another easy win and cover. – WINNER #4.


DET/MIA over 207 (Rated #3) – Like I said before I love OVERS and plays rated #3 and higher. They put up 215 points and covered the 207 total. – WINNER #5.


SAC/OKC over 239.5 (Rated #1) – Wow what a total in this game! SAC plays zero defense and we had this pegged as our highest projected game of the month with 252.5 points and the highest projected pace I have seen of 115.5 – Holy moly we were ready for some FIREWORKS! The game finished 119-116 for 235 points going under and missing a sweep by 4.5 points. But it was a great game. I was worried with OKC coming off a 2OT the prior night and having a monster projected total. Good game but a loss.


HOU +9.5 vs. GSW (Rated #2) – We had this game with GSW winning 115-114 with HOU easily covering the +9.5 (and climbing) point spread. Harden was ruled out and this went to +13 before game time so someone got a sweet money line bet in if they waited. HOU ended up winning outright 118-112 as a double digit dog. Yes I was shocked myself but not going to pass on a #2 rated side. - WINNER #6.


OTHER GAMES that I did not play that were on the sheet and why: (5-3 record)


Philly under (Rated #4) – This was a #4 rated play which I’m passing and only playing #3 and higher AND with no Joel Embiid their defensive efficiency completely changes so I passed on this game since we don’t make adjustments for players ruled out.


NOR +5 (Rated #2) – We had this game with NOR winning 121-119 as a +5 dog and this was a #2 rated play. However I did pass on this game because like we stated above the playing time for AD is coming down so was unsure what their offensive efficiency would look like. They won the game 128-115 as a +5 dog and sheet gave us an easy dog winner. However I was not on it but I hope you were!


ATL/PHO under 233.5 (Rated #2) – We had this was a #2 rated play. However I am not playing under this week. Game squeaked in the under as they put up 232 covering the under by 1.5 points for a winner.


BOS/CHI under 221 (Rated #2) – Vegas total was 221 and we had it pegged at 213 for a rated #2 under. 83% of Vegas money was on the under so it was a popular play. However I am not playing any under bets and it lost putting up just over 240 points.


HOU/GSW under 233 (Rated #4) – Okay so by now you understand that I’m passing on unders. Another winner as this ended with 230 points. To close for my money but a sheet #4 under winner.


SAC +7 over OKC (Rated #4) – This was a rated #4 play and with limited time to pick my plays and glancing at OKC’s 21-7 home records and SAC 11-17 on the road I wasn’t going to touch it. #4 plays are so close that it is almost not worth the bet unless you love the side it gives you some confirmation. We had this game with SAC losing 126-127 but covering the +7 opening line or +5.5 if you bet it later in the day. SAC ended up winning the game 119-116 (shocked me) and easily covered either spread you had. We had a ton of dog winners last night.


MIN +12.5 and under 229 (Rated #1) – When KAT was ruled out I passed on this game because he is a significant factor for MIN. Also noting that MIL is 24-5 at home and 9-1 in their last 10 games. The MIN side ended up as a winner as they lost 140-128 thus covering by 0.5 points. The under did not hit as it put up a massive 268 total points in the game.


If you are not familiar with our NBA StatWise sheet here is a screen shot below. It breaks down each game individually for all games on the sheet. We also have a similar sheet for NCAA Hoops!


NBA StatWise Sheet Example Game:

So here is quick tutorial on reading the sheet - The two teams have a projected score under the SAFE model and X-Factor model. The X-Factor model is the one we recommend. It factors in everything from offensive/defensive efficiency numbers, projected game pace, home/away splits, turnovers, fouls, etc. It does not factor in b2b games for tiredness and efficiency changes for major players being ruled out. We can manually calculate the players on/off court numbers and in the future we will do that for the sheet but with the season 2/3 over it is not worthwhile to change it this year. We rated plays from #1 to #4 with 1 being the best. We also highlight in orange the home teams home numbers and road teams road numbers. So in this example you can quickly look at see LAL are 12-17 on the road and NOR is 17-11 at home. You can also quicly see NOR has an offensive efficiency of 1.11 at home vs. a LAL offensive efficiency of 1.05 on the road. We also bring in how each team does vs. the Vegas spread, over and under. There is a video on the website that goes into further detail if you are interested.


Thank you for reading and good luck.

Haze

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