NCAA Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
The NEW NCAA Betting sheet has been so much fun to play and as always we have added more information each week to it. Last week games with 3+ different than the Vegas spread were 61.5%, 67% and 61.9% depending on which model you were using but they all showed great success. The "Specific Split Model" had the highest rate at 18-9 for 67%. I didn't do much research on totals but was told they were also hitting at a high rate. These picks are game that I LIKE and they are not all recommended plays from our NCAA Betting sheet. I have 14 games the sheet kicked out for the week but only have time to post my favorite few.
NCAA BETS TO MAKE WITH SCREEN SHOTS:
BET #1 TO MAKE:
PICK: UCF (-14.5) OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
As you can see on the screen shot above we have this game easily blowing past the 14.5 spread and winning by 23-28 points. The thing that jumps out is that UCF has an "upgrade" on the running and passing game so they have two paths of success this week. They are 26th in rush yards per game facing a defense that is 103th in rush yards allowed. They are 1st in passing yards per game and facing a defense that is 58th in pass yards allowed. So you can get the idea of what I'm looking at. UCF also has a strength of schedule that is tougher than South Florida and they are winning by an average of 13 PPG vs. South Florida who has the tougher schedule is losing by an average of 23 points per game. The FEI line has it much closer but our model has a much higher win %. Common Opponents: I always look at common opponents and see how they stack up just to see if they support the side I'm on. Both teams played TEMPLE and UCF beat them 38-13 while South Florida lost 37-39. South Florida also lost to Houston 56-21 getting blown out and UCR thumped Houston 44-21. I'm laying the points!
BET #2 TO MAKE:
PICK: INDIANA (-10.5) OVER MARYLAND
Looking at the screen shot above both of our models have Indiana covering by a range of 17-20 points. The biggest path for success in this game is the Indiana passing game that is 18th in PY per game and Maryland is 78th is PY allowed on defense. Both teams have a similar strength of schedule but with different outcomes. Indiana is winning by 10.2 PPG and Maryland is losing by 7.7. Indiana is coming off a great game vs. a tough Ohio State team where they lost 42-35 and had a change to come down the field at the end for a tie.
BET #3 TO MAKE:
PICK: COASTAL CAROLINA (-16.5) OVER TEXAS STATE
What jumps out at me is the "Big Upgrades" for Coastal Carolina and the "Big Downgrades" for Texas State. Both teams have a similar strength of schedule but CC is winning by 20 PPG and Texas State is losing by 8.3 PPG. Both of our models have CC winning by 19-22 points. I don't think Texas State has a chance to win the game so the question is can CC cover the -16.5 points? I'm going to lay the -16.5. Common Opponents: Both teams played App State and CC won 34-23 and Texas State lost 38-17. App State is rated higher than Texas State and CC won by 11. Texas State is rated slightly lower than Georgia State and CC just beat Geogia State 51-0 only 3 games ago. I think we have to lay the points here.
BET #4 TO MAKE:
PICK: FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-7) OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
I recommend plays with our models are 3+ points different than the Vegas spread and you can see this one is under the 3 but I like it so I'm adding it to the article. As long as the dog doesn't have a path for success in the passing game then I don't mind laying points, the back door covers come from dogs with an upgrade in the passing game and here MTS is going to run into the 17th pass defense and 15th rush defense. Florida ATL should have an easy time running the ball against the 112th rushing defense so they should easily cover the 7 points and I think this is more of a 10-14 point win. Florida International and MTS are rated pretty close to the same with FI slightly higher and Florida Atlantic just beat them 38-19 and rushed for 381 yards on the ground. FL-Int & MTS have pretty much the same rush defense in yards allowed per game. Lay the 7.
Good luck everyone!