NFL Week 5 ALGO Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
We are not giving you these plays as guarantees but simply sharing our ALGO projections and you can decide if you love it or hate it. Below is only my opinion of my top 3 along with our ALGO leans!
TOP SPORTS BETTING PICKS FOR NFL:
THE PICK: Baltimore (-3) over Pittsburgh
Projected Score: Baltimore 30 vs. Pittsburgh 23
Breakdown: Baltimore is currently sitting at #1 in offensive points per game at 33.8, #1 in offensive yards per game at 482.52 and #1 in rushing yards per game at 205.8. They also run the most plays per game at 72.5 and just a side note Pittsburgh is last in plays per game at 54.8. Another large standout in this game is Baltimore putting up 27.5 first downs per game (currently also ranks #1) while Pittsburgh is sitting at 15.8. Pittsburgh is 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game but overall a slightly better defense than Baltimore. We have this game with Baltimore winning by 7 points so we will gladly take the FG spread!
THE PICK: Arizona +3.5 over Cincy
Projected Score: Arizona 20 over Cincy 17
Breakdown: What a horrible game this should be with 25th and 30th ranked teams in offensive points per game duking it out. Two bad defenses and two bad offenses. What makes this game pop for us? Arizona opening at +4 moving down to +3 and our ALGO has them winning the game 20-17 as a dog. Last week we had 3 dogs under this same ALGO win outright. Arizona has a more efficient offense at 17.6 yards per game vs. Cincy at 21.6. Both defenses are around the same at 14.5 and 14.0. Kyler Murray gets to face the 31st rated pass defense who also ranks 31st vs. WR-1, 30th vs. WR-2 and 30th vs. RBs out of the backfield (David Johnson anyone???). I can’t see the Bengals beating anyone with 4 with that defense. Vegas gives you a random 3 points home field advantage but that actual home field for Cincy is only 2 points. Take the hook at +3.5 and throw some pizza money on the money line parley with something else you like!
THE PICK: New England (-15.5) over Washington
Projected Score: New England 32 over Washington 15
Breakdown: This game features the #1 defense in the NFL vs. the 31st rated offense. Washington is 28th in offensive points per game and offensive yards per game and 31st in defensive points allowed and 28th in defensive yards allowed. New England is 1st in points per game allowed and yards per game allowed on defense and 5th in offensive points per game. New England is only allowing 61.2 rushing yards per game and 181.8 passing yards per game. Wow! Vegas line opened at -13 and quickly moved to -15.5 while the under took a hammering opening at 47 and has now moved down 4.5 points to 42.5. Washington has yet to name a starting QB and if it’s not Keenum I don’t think they can get anywhere near 15 points and think they sit in the 3-10 point range while New England has their usually 30+ outing and scores at will. Our projected line for this game with Washington having home field advantage is -23 so I’ll jump on the -15.5!
OTHER LEAN ALGO PLAYS FOR NFL:
Indianapolis Colts +11 vs. Kansas City: Projection: KC winning 30-26.
(Note: Indy hopefully doesn’t win this game since I live in KC and I’m a big Chiefs fan but 11 is really high. Kansas City is giving up 23.5 points per game on defensive and 149.8 rushing yards per game (31st) and Indy is the 7th rated rushing offense putting up 132.5 rushing yards per game. KC will get their 30 points but I don’t think they can keep the Colts under 21 points. You could wait for 11.5 and run it on a 3 team 10 point teaser to +21.5 and I love that.)
Tampa Bay +3.5 vs. New Orleans: Projection: Tampa winning 31-23
(Note: The numbers are skewed after that 55 point outburst last week but still +3.5 with the hook is too good to pass up!)
New York Jets +13.5 vs. Philly Eagles: Projection: Philly 28-16
(Note: Way too many points here for a Philly defense that is giving up 26.2 points per game (27th) and 385 yards per game (23rd). However, if Falk is starting I would likely stay way but if Sam Darnold starts then I love +13.5 here with him and Crowder throwing it all over the field!)
Tennessee Titans -3 vs. Buffalo Bills: Projection Titans 21-18
(Note: This is only a game I would play if Josh Allen is going to sit. Yes the projection of winning by 3 and laying 3 looks crazy but if Josh Allen is out then I lean to Titans laying 3.)
FREE FLICK GROUP CHAT (Sports Betting):
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Thank you for reading and good luck!