NFL Sports Betting Picks & Player Props!
JACKSONVILLE (+6.5) OVER PHILLY
Last week Jacksonville completely dominated the Chargers ultimately winning 38-10. They held a 25-16 FD edge and 413-312 yard edge. Holding the Chargers to only 16 first downs, 26 rushing yards and 286 passing yards was impressive. Our model has this game between Philly (-2.5) to (-5.5) so going to take the points. On the NFL CheatSheet these two rank 4th and 5th in total offense and 4th and 6th in total defense so this should be a good matchup. The key to success is Jacksonville and that running game as Eagles are allowing 5.4 yards per carry (29th). Jacksonville holding foes to 3.1 yards per carry which is 4th best in the NFL and allowing only 55 rushing yards per game which is lowest in the NFL.
DALLAS (-3.5) OVER WASHINGTON
Commanders have lost the last two games by 11 and 16 points. Last week they only managed to put up 240 yards and 8 points on that Eagle D. Cowboys came through for us with a moneyline winner, over on the sacks and over on CeeDee Lamb yardages. WAS gave up 400 yards, 21 first downs and 24 points on defense and 425 yards the prior week. Dallas always plays better @ HOME and that DEF ranks 8th right now.
2 GAMES I WANT TO TEASE:
BUFFALO BILLS / BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER
I was interested in Buffalo but its hard to go against the Ravens right now especially when they are playing at home. Both teams 2-1 ATS. Buffalo ranks 32nd in rushing and Ravens have been killed through the air so I expect points on the Buffalo side. Hard for anyone to stop Lamar & Company as they have put up 24, 38 and 37 points in the last 3 games and they rank #1 in PPG (33) and #4 in yards per game (380.3).
GREEN BAY PACKERS OVER NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Packers coming together after that 23-7 beating they took in Week 1 from the Vikes. They followed that up with a 27-10 win over the Bears and then a 14-12 clincher over the Bucs. Mac Jones is out so we get "Hoyer the destroyer" for a few weeks so the Packers D should feast and keep them out of the endzone. Patriots have the 29th rated rushing defense allowing 4.8 yards per carry and will face the 7th best rushing offense with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
PLAYER PROPS - "PRIZE PICK" LINES:
JAMES ROBINSON OVER 52.5 RUSHING YARDS
Eagles are allowing 5.4 yards per carry (29th).
Jacksonville is 10th in rushing yards per game at 123.3.
Jacksonville is rushing at the 9th highest percentage in the NFL and their best path to success against a strong Eagles defense.
Robinson has 40 rushing attempts and 164 yards with 2 touchdowns over the last 2 games.
NICK CHUBB OVER 88.5 RUSHING YARDS
Cleveland #1 in rushing yards per game at 190.7 and they run at the 2nd highest percentage in the NFL (54%).
ATL allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 109.3 rushing yards per game.
Chubb has 23, 17 and 22 rushing attempts for 113, 87 and 141 yards so the volume is there and 89 is a low number.
CORDARRELLE PATTERSON OVER 43.5 YARDS
His raw projection is 58 yards and this feels like such an easy winner on most weeks.
He has 141 and 120 yards in 2 of his 3 games to start the year.
CHRIS OLAVE OVER 54.5 YARDS
Chris Olave has got better each week going from 3/41 to 5/80 and then 9/147 last week and now Michael Thomas is unlikely to play this week.
TYLER LOCKETT OVER 59.5 YARDS
Each of the last 2 weeks Lockett has 9 grabs on 11 targets for 107 and 76 yards.
Lions are allowing 265.7 passing yards per game (25th).
Lions have no solid cornerbacks and Mike Hughes covers the slot and allowing a 76% catch rate and 145.3 QB rating when he is targeted.
Lockett lines up all over the formation but 46% of the time he is in the slot where he will have an excellent matchup!
ROBERT WOODS OVER 42.5 YARDS
Hard to pick a Titans WR but he is in a decent spot this week and his target share is growing. In terms of targets he went from 2 in week 1 to 5 in week 2 to 9 last week where he caught 4 for 85 yards.
Stephon Gilmore is the elite corner we have to stay away from and he spends 91% of his coverage on the outside which is bad news for Treylon Burks.
Robert Woods runs 35% out of the slot where he will likely get Kenny Moore coverage who is allowing a 135.2 passer rating. When he is on the outiside it will be between Gilmore and Facyson.
MARQUISE BROWN OVER 59.5 YARDS
Tough matchup against a Carolina secondary allowing the 13th fewest passing yards through the air.
Last week he has 17 targets and 14 catches for 140 yards and the clear WR-1.
AMARI COOPER OVER 57.5 YARDS
Amari will see Casey Hayward and A.J. Terrell for the majority of his routes and while they are elite corners they are struggling to contain WRs this year.
Casey Hayward is allowing a 132.2 passer rating when targeted and A.J. Terrell is allowing a 135.8.
The last two weeks Cooper has put up a 7/101/1 line on 11 targets and a 9/101/1 line on 10 targets.
KHALIL HERBERT RUSHING YARDS OVER 78.5
Herbert is a stud as we saw with his 20 carry 157 yard 2 touchdown performance when David Montgomery went down!
He is averaging 4.2 yards AFTER contact which is "elite".
Giants allowing 5.3 yards per carry (28th) and a whopping 157 rushing yards per game (30th).
JAMAAL WILLIAMS OVER 62.5 RUSHING YARDS
Seattle allowing 4.9 yards per carry and 157 rushing yards per game (30th).
Last week took 20 carries for 87 yards and should get another 20 this week playing @ Home.