NFL Championship Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I am excited for my home town Chiefs to make another AFC Championship game, just hope Mahomes is ready to go! If you are sports betting I’m going Chiefs -3 and Tampa Bay +3.5 (buy the hook if it’s not there). Both games we lean to the OVER as all these offenses are top notch and should make for a fun DFS weekend too!
STACKING FOR GPPS:
The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.
GAME BY GAME BREAKDOWN:
TAMPA BAY @ GREEN BAY
VEGAS: Packers opened -4 and now -3 total still at 51.0.
OUR MODEL: We have this game with Bucs taking it 31-29 in a high scoring shootout!
RUNNING GAME:
Tampa Bay has an advantage with the 9th best OLine facing Packers 23rd OLine. Packers have been decent at stopping chunk runs of 5-10 yards but they are 24th in power runs. Tampa Bay can run the ball here but don’t think it’s a massive game of rush yards. Packers rank 17th in total “D” and 18th in rushing “D”. Packers allowing 4.6 yards per rush which ranks 22nd in the NFL. Leonard Fournette (5300 DK/7200 FD) is cheap enough and appears to have taken over the backfield role. He put up 21.7 DK points last week for 4.4x value. He lead the carriers 17-13 over Ronald Jones (4600 DK/5600 FD). Fanduel I could get away with a GPP dart on Ronald Jones but on a site like DK that has PPR then I prefer Fournette who had 6 targets and 5 catches compared to only 1 target and 0 catches for Jones. Packers also rank 28th in pass catching RBs which is a big boost for Fournette on Draftkings!
Packers are at a disadvantage as the Bucs have the #1 DLine and they are 1st in stopping runs of 5-10 yards and 5th in runs of 10+ yards. Tampa ranks 5th in total “D” and 1st in rushing “D”. Bucs allowing a league low 3.6 yards per rush which is best in the NFL. Aaron Jones (6500 DK/8000 FD) had 18.3 DKP last week for 2.7x value but faces a stiff matchup this week. If he is going to exceed value it’s going to have to be incorporating some catches but keep in mind the Bucs rank 6th in pass catching RBs. Jamal Williams (4400 DK/5000 FD) is extremely cheap and in large field GPPs might be a better dart at lower ownership. A.J. Dillon (4000 DK / 4700 FD) is the 3rd RB option and only had 6 carries last week. Last week Jones had 14 carries, Williams 12 carries and Dillon 6 carries. Only Aaron Jones had any targets and it was only 2.
PASSING GAME:
Tampa Bay is passing at a 63% clip which is one of the highest in the NFL and they are 2nd in passing yards per game at 287.8. Bucs are 3rd best at QB protection and Packers are 10th in applying pressure to the QB. Tampa is the 3rd best “O” and 5th best passing “O”. Chris Godwin (5400 DK/6800 FD) is my top option to stack with Tom Brady (6100 DK/7800 FD). No one in Tampa needed to do much last week because the Defense took care of business so let’s look at the prior weeks. Godwin has the most steady production with 19.4, 33 and 19 DKPs in Week 16, Week 17 and the Wild Card round. He also has one of the better WR/CB matchups on the slate going up against Chandon Sullivan. Godwin runs 67% of the time in the slot and Sullivan covers the slot 80% of the time.
Jaire Alexander is the TOP CORNER to avoid in this matchup and he is only in the slot 4% of routes so he will hardly see any Godwin coverage. Alexander lines up on the outside 90% of the time and 75% on the left side putting him over Antonio Brown (4700 DK/5800 FD) for the majority of the time. Mike Evans (5800 DK/6600 FD) is all over the place as he plays 34% on the left, 38% in the slot and 27% on the right so he will see a little bit of everyone. Kevin King is the other CB for the Packers and he has a very low PFF grade and allowing a 70% catch rate.
Rob Gronkowski (3200 DK/5200 FD) has a solid matchup vs. Christian Kirksey who is allowing an 86% catch rate and has a 45.5 PFF grade (that is low!).
Aaron Rodgers (6500 DK/8700 FD) is having an MVP season and putting up a steady 25 fantasy points per giving you a solid 4x return. DaVante Adams (8000 DK/8900 FD) is a stud and matchups just don’t apply to him. He is projected for 8-9 catches and 100 yards with 70-75% chance of a TD. Adams is constantly hitting a floor of around 20 DKPs and has also hit 46.2 and 47.6 this year giving you one of the highest ceilings of any player. Adams is projected to get shadow coverage from Carlton Davis who is a mid-range cover corner and this is still an advantage for Adams. Adams is targeted on 31% of routes with a 79% catch rate. MVS (3900 DK/5500 FD) will have the toughest matchup against Jamel Dean. Once again, Allen Lazard (4200 DK/5700 FD) will be our second option to target for the Packers. Last week we said to take Lazard over MVS or Tonyan and he ended up going 4 for 96 with a TD, lead the team in receiving yards and was second in targets. Robert Tonyan (3600 DK/5700 FD) is a decent second option this week and sits right there behind Lazard. He will be covered by Devin White who is 5” shorter and allowing an 86% catch rate and has a low PFF grade. I prefer Lazard over Tonyan for GPP due to the ceiling but for cash I don’t mind Tonyan over Lazard due to the consistent points.
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY
VEGAS: Chiefs opened -2.5 and now -3 with the total going from 51 to 53.5.
OUR MODEL: We have KC winning 31-29 in a high scoring affair that is at 60 total points! (My bet is laying -3 with KC, model is just a recommendation.)
RUNNING GAME:
These two teams run at a 39% and 38% clip so I won’t waste of ton of time talking about RBs that won’t get the volume or the large amount of work. Devin Singletary (4500 DK/5800 FD) is a horrible option! Last week I gave him the benefit of the doubt having the backfield to himself and he awarded us with 6.7 points. Blah! He has not eclipsed 8, read that 8.0 DKPs in 4 WEEKS! Look elsewhere!
Darrell Williams (4800 DK/6000 FD) led the backfield last week for KC and put up 13.4 DKPs and he looked good doing it. Definitely prefer him over Devin Singletary. He had 13 carries for 78 yards and 4 catches for 16 yards. Le’Veon Bell (4100 DK/5100 FD) only had 2 rushes and 2 targets for 0 catches. I don’t now the status of Clyde Edwards (5000 DK/6200 FD) but if he is in that takes Williams production back.
PASSING GAME:
Load up this game for DFS! These two teams pass at a 61% and 62% clip AND they rank 1st and 3rd in passing yards per game. Defensively the teams are middle of the road pass defenses and are 13th and 14th in passing yards allowed per game.
Josh Allen (6900 DK/8500 FD) has been on fire! He has a great ceiling hitting the mid 30’s in 5 of the last 8 games and even broke 40 DKPs in Week 15. He always has rushing upside giving you a solid floor. His production is safe since they have no running game to speak of. If you are running Allen then your top stack option is Stefon Diggs (7000 DK/8300 FD). Look at these numbers on Diggs over recent weeks: 27.6, 27.8, 15, 44.5, 28.7 and 32.1 DKPs. That is HUGE value on his price tag! That is pushing 4x, 4x, dud, 6x, 4x, 4.5x. Cole Beasley (4100 DK/5700 FD) and John Brown (4300 DK/5600 FD) both have tough matchups but they are dirt cheap and one of them is going to pop. If you stack Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs then mix in Brown or Beasley because one of them will go for 3x plus. Last week it was Brown, Wild Card round it was Beasley, Week 17 it was Brown, etc.
Patrick Mahomes (7600 DK/9000 FD) is always a safe option but I don’t like him for GPPs this week. Now hear me out, I live in KC and I’m a huge Chiefs fan but the ceiling just hasn’t been there. Mahomes hasn’t broke the 30 DKP mark since Week 9 but he has been a steady 21-27 DKPs each week. He is playing at home this weekend in an AFC Championship Game and in perfect weather so maybe this monster game is coming???
Tyreek Hill (7200 DK/8400 FD) has one of the best WR/CB matchups as he runs in the slot almost 60% of the time and that is covered by Taron Johnson. Taron Johnson is a good corner but is allowing a 73% catch rate and 0.30 FP per route which is the highest of any Bills corners. Tre’Davious White is the stud corner for the Bills and he is only on the slot 2% of the time so likely won’t see much Tyreek Hill in this matchup. White plays 50% on the left side and 43% on the right side so he stays on the “outside”.
Travis Kelce (8000 DK/8600 FD) has a big plus matchup but does the TE/CB matchup really matter with Kelce? No! He is targeted on 25% of his routes and holds a 76% catch rate and has one of the best QBs in the league throwing to him. The primary coverage guy for Buffalo is Matt Milano who is 5” shorter and 37 lbs lighter. Travis Kelce should have an easy “box out” touchdown vs. the smaller Milano. Kelce has also had AT LEAST 22 DKPs in 5 STRAIGHT WEEKS and eclipsed 30 DKPs twice!
Thanks for reading,
Haze
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