NFL “Daily Fantasy Breakdown” Week 11!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
NFL Started off Week 11 pretty strong with TITANS (-6) and Vegas had them at TITANS (+3.5) and they won by 10! The CheatSheet models continue to be a strong source for sports betting information!
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DAILY FANTASY STACKS:
One of the things I like about the NFL cheatsheet is the ease that you can sort out the QB + 2 pass catchers and run back with an opponent pass catcher and find the cost of the stack, projection of that stack, average points produced and the stack ceiling. I also have a column to the right that shows how much cap space the stack will cost and the average salary left over so you can quickly scroll through and decide if it’s a stars and scrubs kind of stack or not.
ATLANTA vs. CHICAGO
I like both sides but let's start with the Falcons who are sitting on a top 3 team implied total and one of their best stacks is only 41% of the cap space. The Chiefs who are the SNF game are 56% of cap, Baltimore is 49% and the Bills directly behind them are 49%. The stack is CHEAP and leaves an average of 6700 per player which is around 1,000 more per player than the other stacks around it with the same team implied total. Yes they might poo the bed as they have only scored 17 and 15 points in the last two games but who cares we are taking shots to win a GPP! Do they have upside? Yes! They scored 37 points at home vs. Carolina just 3 games ago and they put up 28 in their prior home game against the 49'ers. Bears have allowed 31, 35 and 49 points over the last 3 games so if ATL wants to score they can score! In the game vs. CAR where they put up 37 points Mariota had 250 & 3 TDs and Pitts, Byrd (sneaky stack option) and Allgeier all caught touchdown passes. Kyle Pitts had the 5/80/1 line and Byrd 3/67/1.
On the Bears side Justin Fields is obvious and then Cole Kmet with Darnell Mooney is where I would look. Bears have scored 30, 32, 29 and 33 points over the last 4 weeks and allowed 31, 35 and 49 over the last 3. Here is the TARGET chart for the Bears. I like to single out a team I'm looking at to see if anyone else climbs into my radar but this is basically the top obvious guys and Pettis would be the sneaky WR who had 7 targets in Week 6 and 5 targets in Week 8 priced at only 3300/5000. Get some action on this game!
If you want to "spend up" I don't mind stacking the Bills now that they are going to miss the 3-6' of snow with 15-30 mph winds. When I'm looking through AVG Fantasy Point Value the Bills also climb to the top. They also have one of the top ceiling stacks at 4.62x with MIN and NE right there too. Josh Allen has put up 26, 27, 20, 30, 39, 25 and 31 DKPs over recent weeks so he is solid for cash or gpp. Diggs has 25+ DKPs in 4 of the last 5 games putting up 28, 4, 26, 34 and 27. Amari Cooper would be the run back player but at 6400/7200 on DK/FD that is pretty expensive and eats up a lot of salary so I prefer to go down to Peoples-Jones (4600/5900). In the screen shot below you can see that in week 6, 7 and 10 he was in the same point range as Cooper but at at significant less cost. Another plus is that the Bills need to win this game after dropping that game to the Jets.
OTHER GPP DART STACKS TO CONSIDER:
NEW ENGLAND - I like to pick a stack without looking at any Vegas totals, ownership numbers and just look to see who has the highest ceiling and they usually have a direct cheap price tag. Here we see New Englant priced at nly 19,600 which is 39% of the cap space leaving you almost 7000 (DK) per player. That is a DIRT CHEAP PUNT STACK! Build a DK lineup with those guys and you can load it with studs! They have a ceiling of almost 4.7x but they have the highest ceiling for any QB/WR1/WR2/OPP WR1.
CINCY - If you plug in the same parameters as above but flip the WR-2 for RB-1 you get Cincy jumping to the top. That's basically because of that last game Mixon had where he exploded and set all kinds of NFL records. But the stak is only 53% of stack so around average price and that gives you a solid RB and solid WR to build around and they are coming off a 42 point explosion against Carolina.
Barkley in another good spot this week going up against the Lions who give up 5.3 yards per carry (30th). Lions also good to attack across the board on the deeper dive running back stats - By those I mean they rank 30th in allowing 5-10 yard rushes and 27th in runs of 10+ yards. Solid pick for cash games but hard to use him for GPPs because he doesn't give you the value at his 8900/9700 salary. He is expensive but gives you a solid 2x-3x value and you need more than that for a GPP.
Finally, a heavy dose of Taylor last week with 22 rushing attempts for 147 yards and a touchdown. Eagles still have the #1 passing defense but rank 28th in rushing defense and they are allowing 4.7 yards per carry (22nd). I like him for cash games and will have a few shares in gpps but his last game was still only around 3.5x value.
Herbert is on the IR so now David Montgomery should have backfield all to himself. His ceiling this year is around 3x his current salary but keep an eye on him going forward!
He took a 71% snap share left week and Najee still has a banged up knee so Warren would be a decent dart at only 4900 on DK.
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS:
The loss of Cooper Kupp is going to sink the ship for the Rams who already rank 31st in offensive yards per game (282.7) and 27th in points per game at (14.7). The only weapons left are Tyler Higbee and Allen Robinson. Tyler Higbee lead the team in targets last week with 8 (Allen Robinson had 6).
With everyone talking about Allen Robinson (5600/6600) I prefer to look at Skowronek who is (3900/5300) and is projected ownership is only 1.6%. Cooper Kupp ran most of his routes in the slot and that is where Ben Skowronek will run most of his. The slot is one of the best places to attack the Saints. I don't have high hopes for the Rams as our model is only projecting them to score 11-14 points but they have to throw it somewhere because they can't run!
No Ja'Marr Chase this week so Tee Higgins is the WR-1 and I doubt Joe Mixon has another 5 touchdowns. Higgins runs almost 80% of his routes from the outside and Levi Wallace will cover him in around half his snaps and grades out at a low 54.0 on PFF and he is allowing a QB passer rating around 100 when targeted.
Over the last 4 weeks McLaurin has 9.0 targets per game and WAS is coming off the big win vs. Philly where they put up 32 points (given the last touchdown was a garbage score). HOU has allowed 24, 29, 17 and 38 points over the last 4 games and their secondary ranks 31st vs. WR-1 and 31st vs. WR-2 and that along should be Scary Terry on your radar! 25th rated pass defense. Everyone is talking about Brian Robinson vs. Houston this week so while his ownership should climb I prefer taking the WR-1 at a sub 6K price tag!
23.4 and then 22.0 DKP over the last two weeks in this offensive explosion. His DK price tag is only (4100) so that is over 5x value. Bears have put up 30, 32, 29 and 33 points over the last 4 games.
PRIZE PICKS NFL BONUS:
These are the players with a hit rate north of 70% since Week 3. Jessica did a great job helping us pull down our player game logs so now we have all players and all games that we incorporate into our NFL Cheatsheet!
DVP CHART BREAKDOWN:
TOP 10 HIGHEST TARGETED PLAYERS OVER THE LAST 4 WEEKS: