NFL DAILY FANTASY BREAKDOWN - WEEK 6!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
What a horrible Thursday night game between the Potatoes and Puff Puff Bears! Either way we are on to bigger and better things this weekend. Several questionable players so watch the injury reports and be ready to pivot Sunday morning.
WEEKEND DFS STACK:
SEATTLE VS. ARIZONA
While everyone will be focused on the Chiefs & Bills I like to slide down to this game. Seahawks are #1 in PPG (34.3) and also allowing the most PPG (37.0) so this would be a great stack game! Seahawks are 30th vs. WR-1, 28th vs. WR-2, 32nd vs. TE and 26th vs. pass catching RBs. This points me over to an Arizona stack with a run back of 1-2 Seahawks. I also like flipping it and take a Seattle stack because of the potent offense and running it back with a Cardinal. Both teams passing at a 60%+ rate and both teams rank 30th and 26th in short pass defense. In overall passing defense they rank 27th and 31st.
KYLER MURRAY + MARQUISE BROWN + RONDALE MOORE + METCALF
GENO SMITH + LOCKETT + METCALF + MARQUISE BROWN OR RONDALE MOORE
Both stacks are solid options with the Seattle side holding an edge on the ceiling and highest average points per game.
I don't like giving out lineups because I want people to think for themselves and pick some players but this is how I'll start my Seattle stack. The difference here is I ran it back with 2 Arizona players instead of 1. I don't mind the Carolina DEF this weekend as the Rams have been struggling offensively. You could pivot down to Rondale Moore and free up the money and ownership percentage of Marquise Brown and boost your flex or move to a top tier RB. Travis Kelce is in another good spot this week.
WR/CB MATCHUP BUMPS:
Looking at the studs and working our way down to the value plays.
Kupp doesn’t need much explanation but one of his main matchups this week is against Hartsfield in the slot. Kupp runs 53% of his routes out of the slot and Hartsfield covers the slot 63% of the time. Rams are passing on 69% of plays which is highest in the NFL and average the lowest rushing yards per game in the NFL at 63 yards per game. Kupp has 108+ receiving yards in 4 of 5 games this year and 11+ catches in 3 of the 5.
One of the lower rated corners in the NFL is Marco Wilson for the Cardinals. He is projected to have 5 snaps against Lockett and 22 snaps against Metcalf. Cardinals have the 27th rated passing defense and Seahawks have one of the top rated passing offenses due to how bad their defense is which is propelling their stats. Over the last 3 weeks Metcalf has 8, 10 and 12 targets putting up 88, 149 and 64 yards with 5+ grabs in each of those last 3 games.
Just a solid option for the Patriots that is always priced low. Last week he put up a 7-111-1 line on 8 targets and he missed week 3 and 4 but in week 2 had a 9-95 line on 13 targets. If he is on the field he’s a solid option.
Cobb projected for 32 snaps against Michael Carter which is great for us! Cobb runs 82% of his routes out of the slot and as we discussed last week Carter covers the slot 93% of the time giving us a boost on Cobb. Last week Cobb exploded for 7 grabs and 99 yards on 13 targets leading the team in targets, receptions and yardage. Hopefully, we are seeing Cobb get back into the mix because the first 4 weeks he was <4 targets and <3 catches.
Marquise Brown will gobble up several targets against anyone but if you are looking for a pivot or another option for a stack then check out Rondale Moore. Moore has a projected 31 snaps against Coby Bryant who is the lowest rated corner for a bad Seattle defense. Moore runs 65% of his routes out of the slot and Bryant covers the slot 88% of the time. Seahawks have the 31st rated passing defense allowing the 27th most passing yards per game at 261.7. Moore missed weeks 1-3 but played the last two. Last week against a tough Philly defense he had 8 targets and 7 grabs for 68 yards.
HONORABLE MENTIONS: JUSTIN JEFFERSON, AJ BROWN
ADDITIONAL PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
Great matchup this week and should be the primary RB against the Browns. Browns allowing 5.3 rushing yards per attempt which is 30th in the NFL plus they are allowing 181.3 rushing yards per game which is 31st in the NFL. Who likes to run the ball? PATRIOTS! Last week he rushed 25 times for 161 yards. He is 2200 cheaper than Nick Chubb on DK so he makes the list as a lower priced option.
Hall is a 6’1” 220lb monster of a back that is seeing more and more work each week. He has increased his carries from 6 to 7 to 8 to 17 and finally 18 last week and over the last 3 weeks he has 2, 6 and 11 targets. He has double digit fantasy points every week but at his price that’s only 2x value. Last week he put up 30.7 DKP which is around 5x his salary. Packers don’t allow a ton of rushing yards per game but they are allowing 4.8 yards per carry which is 22nd in the NFL.
Vikings are a middle of the road rushing defense but with Tua out Dolphins will run at a higher rate. Mostert has always been a solid RB option he just can’t stay healthy so use him while you can. Over the last two weeks he has 18 and 15 carries for 113 and 69 rushing yards averaging 6.3 ypc last week and 4.6 ypc the prior week. Vikings allowing a 77% red zone TD% which is 29th in the NFL. Like Mostert to get into the end zone this week.
Walker stepping into the primary role for the Hawks will likely be a popular option this week. At only 5400 on DK he is fairly cheap for a starting RB. Matchup has a large total at 51 but Cardinals decent against the run at 4.3 ypc allowed and only 93 rushing yards per game so use wisely.
Projected to be the lowest owned WR for the Steelers this week and he is 1100 cheaper than Johnson. We wrote up him last week and took 6 balls for 83 yards on 8 targets as a dirt cheap option. Pickett loves throwing to him and what else can the Steelers do? They can’t run and they aren’t going to lead against the Bucs.
Thanks for reading and good luck!