NFL DFS Picks WEEK 12 from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Last week we had some monster plays in our article with Randall Cobb 5.7x value, Michael Gallup 4.1x value, Lamar Jackson 4.3x value and Joe Mixon 3.1x value. We also smashed our NFL Best Bet with New England laying the points to move our NFL Algo Best Bets to 11-3 on the year! WEB OPTIMIZER FOR NFL & NBA is loaded up and ready to go for Week 12. Just go to the website and click the “Web Optimizer” dropdown!
GAME BY GAME BREAKDOWN:
I’m going to open the game with our ALGO projected score and then hit on the players that are viable in the game. I’m not able to write up every game so I’m picking the best ones with some upside.
CLEVELAND 21 vs. MIAMI 16
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at CLE -9 and is now -10.5 while the total has moved up a half a point from 44.5 to 45 points. With this only projected at 37 Algo points I’m not particularly targeting this game but there are some GPP plays you can look at. My personal take is that this game will be closer to the 44-45 than our projected 37 but I think CLE laying 10.5 points is just too many in this spot. Betting wise I’d lean MIA +10.5.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
Kalen Ballage (4400) is dirt cheap and has limited upside. In Week 10 he got 20 carries and 4 targets and last week he put up 12.7 DK points which was around 3x his salary BUT if you look at the stats he rushed 9 times for 9 yards, blah! I imagine if you loved your lineup and only had 4400 left for a RB position you could stick him in and hope for a TD. CLE is allowing 127.2 rushing yards per game (26th). DeVante Parker (5200) is soaking up a ton of targets as the default #1 WR. He has 10 and 10 his last two games and coming off a 7 catch for 135 yard game vs. a tough Buffalo secondary. He also doesn’t have less than 11 DK points in his last 7 weeks giving you a cash floor but also has only broke 20 points one time limiting his ceiling for GPPs.
Nick Chubb (8100) will be a popular pick this week with Miami giving up 148 rushing yards per game (31st) and the 28th most fantasy points to the RB position at 28.5. He is a beast of a RB and coming off a 27 carry game vs. PIT. Prior to his 27 carries last week he has also had at least 20 carries in each of his last 4 weeks. Actually he has only been below 20 3 times all year and that was week 1, 2 and 5 and even in those games he had 17, 18 and 16 carries. He also has a ceiling game of 42.3 points vs. BAL where he went for 165 rushing yards and 3 TDs.
Odell Beckham Jr. (7000) this has to be a blow up spot for him right? He has only put up 10, 11, 13 and 10 DK points in his last 4 contest but they were against stud teams such as PIT, BUF, DEN and NE. He still has 22 targets in his last two games. Now he gets the lowly Dolphins who are the 32nd DVOA pass defense and rank 30th vs. WR-1s. Jarvis Landry (6300) is also a solid option this week. He has 14, 25 and 17 point games in his last 3 and has 7, 10 and 13 targets in those and he is 700 cheaper. Landry runs out of the slot on 77% of snaps and the slot corner for Miami is Jomal Wiltz who has a PFF grade of only 44 making him one of the worst cover CBs in the league. One of these two guys is going to blow up this week! OBJ for GPP and Landry for Cash/GPP both.
PITTSBURGH 25 vs. CINCY 15
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at PIT -7 and now PIT -6.5. Total is still at 39. We have this at 40 points so we are pretty close to Vegas here. My take on this game is that CIN is awful and PIT defense has been outstanding since the acquisition of Minkam or however you spell his name. Betting wise I’d lean on PIT -6.5 as we have this spread could be as high as -10 for PIT so 6.5 is a gift.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
Everyone is hurt for the Steelers. Last I read there was no James Conner, No JuJu and No Dionte Johnson. Thank god they are playing the Bengals. Mason Rudolph (5500) has a good shot at hitting 3x for cash games. He is coming off 10, 14, 11 and 17 DK point outings and I don’t think 15-17 vs. Cincy is unheard of. James Washington (5000) and Jaylen Samuels (7200) should get plenty of work in the passing game with everyone else banged up. Vance McDonald (3500) could also get some extra looks as he has 7 targets in each of his last 3 games but hasn’t done much with them. CIN has the 31st DVOA pass defense, 24th DVOA rush defenses, 32nd vs. WR-1 and 31st vs. the TE. Joe Mixon (5900) is the on Bengal I would consider and only for GPPs. He is coming off 17, 20 and 18 DK point games in his last 3 and that was facing OAK, BAL and LAR. He also has 15, 30 and 17 carries along with 3-4 targets in each.
NEW ORLEANS 24 vs. CAROLINA 22
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at Saints -7 and is now -9.5 while the total opened at 48 and went down to 47. We have the projected line on this game as Saints -4.5 so -9.5 is a little high for us. Betting public rides with recent performance and Saints have scored 31+ points in 3 of their last 4 games while Carolina has dropped 3 of their last 4 with only 3 points last week vs. ATL and 16 vs. Green Bay. Betting stance is to stay away as I don’t want to lay 9.5 with the Saints but I don’t feel confident in taking 9.5 with Carolina. I’d look at a money line parlay with the Saints for my pick.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
Saints defense is 8th DVOA vs. the pass and 9th DVOA vs the run. They are also 3rd vs. WR-1s but they are without Lattimore this week. I won’t talk you out of CMC (10,500) as he is the only RB in town and has put up 33, 29, 41, 31, 22, 51, 34 and 30 DK point performances. His volume is just off the charts and he is the modern day Marshall Faulk. He has anywhere between 14 and 28 carries per game and his targets can be anywhere from 5 to 14. This last game vs. ATL where they only had 3 points on the board he has 14 carries for 70 yards but they 14 targets with 11 catches for 121 yards and still put up 33 DK points. He is almost a lock for 3x every week. D.J. Moore (6400) and Curtis Samuel (5400) are both viable options this week. I lean more D.J. Moore because of his volume. He has 15, 11 and 10 targets in the last 3 weeks along with 95, 120 and 101 yards putting up 18, 24 and 20 DK points. If he added a touchdown that would cement that 4x-5x GPP ceiling we need. Samuel is more cash game floor than GPP ceiling. He has 6.5, 13.5 and 16 DK points in his last 3 games. But in the two larger scoring games he caught a touchdown in each one and he is only getting about 60% of the targets that D.J. Moore is getting. If Moore caught the TD then he would of exploded.
CAR is 7th DVOA pass defense and 32nd DVOA rushing defense. Can Alvin Kamara (8200) get back to running the ball and have a monster game? I think so but if not he will catch several balls out of the backfield now the Drew Brees is back under center making him a solid cash game floor with GPP ceiling. CAR is giving up 128 rushing yards per game (27th). Coming off a 22 DK point game where he rushed for 75 yards and then had 10 catches for another 47 yards we are definitely looking at AK this week. CAR is giving up 41.6 fantasy points to the WR position (30th) so why not take some Michael Thomas (9300)? Yes he is expensive but his floor is 11 targets and 100 yards. He is coming off 28, 31, 30 and 25 DK point outings with 11, 14, 11 and 11 targets.
DETROIT 24 vs. WASHINGTON 16
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at Lions -3.5 and still -3.5 while the total went from 41 to 41.5. Betting stance is DET -3.5. We have this projected spread could be DET -8 with Haskins at QB so take the gift.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
Give me some Jeff Driskel (5500) this week. WAS is 26th DVOA vs. the pass and giving up 34.9 fantasy points to the WR and 19.2 to the QB. Driskel has a ton of WR weapons and they can’t run the ball so he has a solid floor. He has put up 19 and 27 DK points in two weeks as a starter and only has 1 pick with 72 pass attempts. His price is also on the rise as it started out at 4100 then jumped a bit to 4600 last week and then up to 5500 this week. So using current salary he has just under 4x when he was a last minute start and then 5x last week. That is great value! Marvin Jones (6100) and Kenny Golladay (6600) have an inverse relationship on the majority of their games. Josh Norman will usually shadow the WR-1 and that is why WAS ranks 4th best vs. WR-1 and then they are 32nd vs. the WR-2. So one of these guys is going to crush value and I’d pair him with Driskel. PFF has Josh Norman covering Golladay the majority of the time but they do not have it as a shadow situation so majority of the public is going to be on Marvin Jones. When they faced MIN in week 7 Golladay was shut down for 3 DK points while Marvin went for 43.3. In Week 8 vs. a weak NYG secondary Golladay went for 32 DK points while Marvin only got 6.2. My opinion is have exposure to both but if you run 60-65% Marvin Jones then put 30-35% Golladay. No plays for WAS for me as Dwayne Haskins is till getting his feet wet and then AP is splitting carries with Derrius Guice. Terry McLaurin was a think but he only has 9, 8, 8 and 2 DK points in his last 4 contest.
TENNESSEE 21 vs. JAX 19
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at TEN -2.5 and now it is -3. Total still sitting at 41. We have this game at 40 total points so we are pretty close to Vegas. Betting stance on this game is PASS! These two teams are 26th and 22nd in points per game and it has a low total.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
Nick Foles (5400) came back with a solid 18.8 DK points (pushing 4x value) tossing for 296 and 2 TDs. D.J. Chark (6400) also had a monster game with 15 targets, 8 catches for 104 yards and 2 TDs putting up 33.4 DK points. Chark is having a solid season and has 15, 9 and 12 targets over his last 3 games and even has a nice ceiling. In week 5 he put up 8 for 164 yards and 2 TDs for 39.4 DK points. Wow! Leonard Fournette (7300) seems pretty expensive for me as TEN is the 4th best rush defensive DVOA and only allowing 24.7 fantasy points to the RB position (15th). Cash games I’m out on Fournette but GPP he is definitely viable because his ownership should be way down. His ceiling game is only around 4x. He only has 8 and 11 carries the last two games and Doug Marrone is aware that he needs to be more balances and get Fournette more carries. Prior to these last two weeks he had 19, 29, 20, 23 and 29 carries and put up 21, 19.5, 18, 27 and 30 DK points on those games.
Derrick Henry (6900) is the only person on the Titans I have interest in this week. He is facing the 30th rated rushing defense DVOA and coming off a couple monster games. JAC is giving up 135 rushing yards per game (29th). Henry has put up 36 and 25 DK points in his last two games. Last week he had a monster 23 carry for 188 yards and 2 TDs vs. KC. Priced as the 8th RB on the slate I think he will be popular but chalk RBs are always in the winning GPP lineups it is the sub 10% owned WRs that you need to focus on!
SEATTLE 25 vs. PHILLY 24
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at Seattle +3 and now down to +1.5 and is currently taking 81% of the tickets. Total opened at 49 and now down to 49 and we are right in that 49-50 point window. Betting stance: Bet Seattle money line or take the +1.5 and put it on a 6 point teaser taking it up to +7.5 and then I feel really good about it!
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
PHI is 12th rated pass defense DVOA and they are allowing only 238 passing yards per game (17th). They are also 7th rated rushing defense DVOA and only allowing 86 rushing yards per game (4th). I’m off Chris Carson for this game and looking at Russell Wilson (6800) who will need to air it out. He is coming off 18, 42, 16, 15, 29 and 30 DK point games. He has two 40+ DK point games this year giving up a good ceiling for GPPs. The reason we like him is that they shouldn’t be able to run the ball and all of the WRs have plus matchups per PFF WR/CB grades. Tyler Lockett (7600) has the best matchup at +20% while D.K. Metcalf (6300) is +15%. Metcalf has 12, 30 and 16 DK point games in his last 3 contest while Lockett has 6, 43, 19 and 18.
Carson Wentz (5600) is priced down this week. He gets to face a SEA team that is giving up 272 passing yards per game (28th) and the 23rd most fantasy points to the WR position and QB at 38.8 and 21.6. Wentz has had a rough schedule facing NE, CHI and BUF in his last 3 contest but still managed 13, 15 and 14 DK points for 2.5-3x value. Seattle should be a much easier opponent allowing him a 3x floor and 4x ceiling. I feel more confident with Wentz now that they are finally using Zach Ertz (6000). He is coming off 18 and 28 DK point games where he had 11 targets in both games and caught 9 balls in each for 103 yards and 94 yards. Alshon Jeffrey (4900) is hurt and still has the Q tag this week. If he is out then you can consider Nelson Agholor (4100) for GPP only as he had 9 and 8 targets the last two weeks. He didn’t do much with them only putting up 8 and 5 DK points but they were facing tough defenses. Jordan Howard (4800) is also Q this week and if he plays he has 19 and 23 carries in the last two weeks for 15 and 18 DK points. If he is out again then Miles Sanders (5000) because the default #1 RB. He only had 7 points last week facing NE, 10 points vs. CHI and then 22.8 points vs. BUF. Sneaky GPP play is Boston Scott (3000) if Howard is out he is the spell back behind Miles Sanders. He got 7 carries last week for only 26 yards but that was vs. a tough NE front. You only need 6 points for 2x value. Jay Ajayi (3000) is there but didn’t even see a snap on the field last week. If you think he might get some run he is also min priced on DK.
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