PLAYER PROP breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Player props are extremely fun to mix and match and put together based on game theory and recent performances. Most of our player props are found using our cheatsheets. If you are playing on THRIVE FANTASY, Prize Picks or your local sportsbook we have some picks for you! Good Luck and have fun with it!
PROPS THAT WE LIKE:
ELIJAH MITCHELL CARRIES (*** FAVORITE PROP! ***)
Over 19.5 CARRIES pays +100
Over 21.5 CARRIES pays +125
Over 23.5 CARRIES pays +150
Over 25.5 CARRIES pays +210
ELIJAH MITCHELL 20 CARRIES + OVER 77.5 YARDS - pays +165
This continues to be an easy slam dunk each week as Mitchell is a true workhouse back and the 49'ers aren't afraid to give him the ball. He has 27, 21, 21, 22, 27, and 27 carries over recent weeks. Since he has 5 weeks OVER 19.5 carries I'll take that at even money and then make ladder bets for the 22/24/26. Packers have a great defense but they are giving up 4.7 yards per carry which ranks 29th in the NFL. San Francisco will need to feed the rock to their stud RB and have success to stay in this game and keep the Packers off the field.
AARON JONES - OVER 4.5 RECEIPTIONS - pays +167
THOUGHTS: Aaron Jones has 5 catches in each of the last two games so when I noticed over 4.5 catches paying +167 that is a wager we only have to win around 38% of the time.
ALLEN LAZARD (RECEIPTIONS & YARDAGE PROPS):
Over 40 yards - pays -110
Over 50 yards - pays +108
Over 60 yards - pays +160
Over 70 yards - pays +250
Over 3.5 catches - pays +135
Over 4.5 catches - pays +260
Over 5.5 catches - pays +625
MVS is unlikely to play this week and even if he was playing I'm still on these Lazard props. Over the last two weeks Lazard has posted lines of 5/75 and 6/72. This is a playoff game where the 49'er defense should focus the extra attention on Adams which might give Lazard a few extra grabs. I like a straight wagers on over 60 +160 and over 4.5 catches for +260 and then you can even put them together in a parlay.
DAVANTE ADAMS RECEPTIONS OVER 9.5 - pays +245
THOUGHTS: Above I wrote about SF focusing extra defense on Adams and that is likely but he is still unguardable. He has 10+ catches in 3 of the last 4 weeks (not counting week 18 when they didn't play starters the entire game) and we can get +245 and that is another high probability wager that we only need to win a small percentage of the time. These two played in Week 3 and Adams caught 12 of 18 for 132 yards and a TD.
DEVIN SINGLETARY RUSHING YARDS:
Over 59.5 - pays -112
Over 79.5 - pays +160
Over 89.5 - pays +250
THOUGHTS: Kansas City is also killed by the run giving up 4.7 yards per carry. I was at the game when we played Denver and JaVonte Williams ran all over us so I got to witness it first hand. I imagine KC is going to go after Allen and that will open up running lanes for Singletary. Since Buffalo started featuring a single RB he has 16, 19, 23, 12 and 22 carries and even has put up 81, 88, 110, 39 and 86 yards over his last 5 games of the season. Taking a straight wager over 79.5 yards at +160 is another high probability wager we can focus on.
JOSH ALLEN - RUSHING TD OVER 0.5 - pays +150
THOUGHTS: I think this should be more of an even money prop but I found +150 on MyBookie and I jumped in. In Week 5 when they played Josh Allen ran in a score so take a shot on another one in a game with a monster total that should feature a ton of scoring!
PRIZE PICKS: RUSHING YARDS PROPS:
Elijah Mitchell over 74.5 (FAV)- He has 96, 85, 119, 66, 133 and 91 yards over recent games and going up against a rush defense giving up 4.7 yards per carry.
AJ Dillon over 39.5 - Tough matchup but Dillon has 28 carries in the last two games for 63 & 63 yards. Not my favorite prop but this is a low number against a tough rush defense.
Josh Allen over 45.5 (FAV)- he has 66, 63, 81 and 64 in his last 4 and had 11 attempts for 59 yards last time he played KC.
Patrick Mahomes over 20.5 - I was betting this line every week at 18.5 and now it jumped to 20.5 which is not enough. He has 29, 54, and 25 yards over the last 3. Last matchup when they lost to the Bills he ran 8 times for 61 yards.
Devin Singletary over 55.5 - 59.5 is -112 so there is value on PrizePicks at 55.5.
PRIZE PICKS: RECEIVING YARDS PROPS:
Joe Mixon over 16.5 (FAV) - Another wager that I have been slamming each week is the Mixon receiving yards over. I don't like this RUSH yards and have actually been hitting the under since he only has 48, 46, 65, 58 and 58 over recent weeks. His receiving yardages over the last 3 weeks are 28, 40 and 70 yards on 4, 7 and 6 catches. This is a game where TEN should have the lead pounding the ball with Derrick Henry and Cincy playing catch up so I like a lot of receiving yardage props for the Bengals. If you have a sportsbook where you can parlay props I love doing a 5-6 catch prop mixed with 40-60 yards and turn it into +300 to +600.
DAVANTE ADAMS over 90.5 - Kick out week 18 when the starters only played minimal snaps and Adams has put up 136, 114, 44, 121, 104 and 115 yards including 132 when these two played earlier in the year.
AARON JONES over 20.5 - He has 30, 21, 12 and 30 receiving yards over the last 4 games and earlier this season posted stat lines in the passing game of 4-61, 7-51, 4-34, 3-51 and 6-48. This is a MUST WIN game and could also be a one-and-done wager.
ALLEN LAZARD over 35.5 - Over 39.5 is the -110 straight wager at your local sportsbook so there is value on PrizePicks at 35.5. Lazard has been over this number in 4 of his last 5 games and MVS us unlikely to play this game. He also has "longs" of 29, 20, 34 and 32 so this could be another one-and-done pick.
PRIZE PICKS: RECEPTION PROPS:
ALLEN LAZARD OVER 3.0 - 5+ catches in 3 of last 5 games. I discussed Lazard above and also like his catch total to go over.
AARON JONES OVER 3.0 - 5 and 5 over the last two games and 3 is a push so we would of only lost this bet 5 times the entire season. He also has the ability to hit this number by halftime.
DAVANTE ADAMS OVER 8.0 - Discussed the Adams prop of over 9.5 above so taking over 8.0 on Prize Picks also interest me. You only lose at 7 and under, 8 is a push which I love and then 9+ is a win. I don't mind it but I would prefer taking the over 9.5 and monster plus money on your local sportsbook.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!