NFL "Prize Picks" & Player Props for Sunday!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Going to get some "Prize Picks" and player props up today that are popping on the NFL cheatsheet!
STEP #1 - I go to the "Prize Picks" tab and sort by Hit Rate% and start going down the list looking at the game logs. (Just FYI the "-99" means BYE week.) Below are the games that have an 86% hit rate and high since Week 4 and their game logs.
STEP #2 - Pick out the players that look to consistently hit the overs (or unders if you are an under player) and then look at the gap. I like to have a "gap" to give some comfort. An example would be if a player is on a 5-0 over but his yardage is 55 yards and he has 56, 59, 57, 55.5, etc that is not giving you much of a "gap. But we will look at some of these that have large gaps with consistent hit rates.
My 5 player card - You can also pivot off Adams or CMC and go Kelce if you prefer to put two KC players together.
JACOBY BRISSETT - Looking at the NFL cheatsheet logs he has a 100% OVER rate since week 5 putting up 324, 212, 278, 258, 266, 230 and 234 passing yards. A line of 210.5 feels too low even in a tougher matchup against the Bucs. His last 4 week average gives us a gap of 60.8 yards to the over which is around a 28% over margin. You can also see PFF projection has him at 255.1 passing yards which is slightly under his average of recent games but still 40ish yards over.
DONOVAN PEOPLES-JONES - On the screen shot above you can see his receiving yards and receptions are both at the top with high hit rates. However, the receiption line of 3.0 gives him a small gap as he is at a 4.7 reception average but his receiving yard average gives us a larger gap. With a line of 41.5 and average of 80.3 that gives us a gap of almost double his line. DPJ has 61, 99, 81, 71, 74, 50 and 71 yards since week 4 with a 100% over rate. I like pairing him with Jacoby Brissett since they are correlated.
PATRICK MAHOMES - KC doesn't have much run game as they are playing with a 3 headed rotation and none of them are really consistent but Mahomes passing yards is! We have a gap of 83.2 passing yards to the OVER with an 86% hit rate since week 4. His last 4 game average is 368.7 passing yards so like taking the over 285.5.
CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY - CMC is a stud but you put in him in this San Fran offense and he becomes a monster. With Mitchell eating into his rushing yards he comes the primary receiving yard back and has 55, 39 and 67 receiving yards in the last 3 games giving him a healthy over spot.
DAVANTE ADAMS - I was going to go with Travis Kelce here as he also has an 86% over rate and would be a great pair with Mahomes but with JuJu coming back and the heavy workload for Kelce I could see him getting some second half rest in a game that should be a blowout. Adams has a 6-1 OVER run since Week 4 and a strong 3-0 over run with 141, 126 and 146 over the last 3 weeks.
SAME GAME PARLAYS:
I play a ton of same game parlays now that DK Sportsbook is legal in my state. I started to write articles on SGP's but have found the majority of readers don't have access to SGP's so I focused my articles more on "Prize Picks" & player props. I won all of my SGP's on Thanksgiving Day so that was a great hit after missing some huge SGP's by a single leg! I went Black Friday shopping with the family so only had time to do one CFB game yesterday and hit it for another +250!