NFL "Prize Picks" & Player Props for Season Long Bets!
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NFL SEASON LONG PLAYER PROPS:
DEREK CARR OVER 4500.5 PASSING YARDS
In 2021 he put up 4,804 yards easily going over this number by over 300 yards. The Raiders secondary unit ranks 29th by PFF which means they should be throwing a ton trying to play “catch up” especially with that tough AFC West loaded with the likes of Mahomes, Wilson and Herbert! Not to mention the addition of Adams and the draft of Zamir White who is an excellent pass catching back!
KIRK COUSINS OVER 4200.5 PASSING YARDS
In his 4 years with the Vikings Cousins has put up 4,221 (over), 4,265 (over), 3,603 (under) and 4,298 (over) giving him a 3-1 “OVER” total. Now Justin Jefferson is a top 3 WR in the NFL and he still has Adam Thielen. Their secondary grades out at 18th in the NFL so another average year for Cousins will put him sliding over this number.
RAW PROJECTION: 4,500 passing yards (Projected 300+ over his line.)
AARON RODGERS OVER 4000.5 PASSING YARDS
This is still “the Aaron Rodgers” and even without Adams he’s an elite QB. He has hit this “OVER” 4 years in a row and in 5 of the last 6 seasons. In 16 games last year he put up 4,115, prior year was 4,299, in 2019 was 4,002 and 2018 was 4,442 and now he has an extra game to play with the extended schedule! This number just feels low with his recent success.
RAW PROJECTION: 4,533 Passing Yards
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY OVER 925.5 RUSHING YARDS
This is an “injury” bet because if healthy he should cruise OVER this number. In 2018 and 2019 he put up 1,098 and 1,387 on the ground and what is more impressive is that he averaged 5.0 and 4.8 yards per carry respectively. The only way he stays under this number is if he gets hurt again.
RAW PROJECTION: 1,037 rushing yards
SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 875.5 RUSHING YARDS
Another “injury” prone RB with a low rushing total that we can target. In his rookie year in 2018 he played 16 games and rushed for 1,307 yards and followed that up with 1,003 yards in 2019 but that was only playing 13 games. His raw projection from two different websites is 1,086 and 1,137 which are both well over the 875.5 total. Giants will enter the 2022 season with a slightly better offensive line that ranks 18th in the NFL.
EZEKIEL ELLIOT OVER 875.5 RUSHING YARDS
The 27 RB is sliding down draft board compared to years past but he has been OVER this number EVERY YEAR he has been in the league. He has consistently averaged over 4.0 yards per carry. Since 2016 he has put up 4.2, 4.0, 4.5, 4.7, 4.1 and then 5.1 his rookie year. He has struggled the last 2 years but still managed to put up 1,002 last year and then 979 the prior year (in only 15 games). The prior 2 years which was 2018 and 2019 he put up 1,434 and 1,357. Those big years are behind us but asking for Zeke to rush for 900 yards in 17 games doesn’t seem like a stretch as Dallas still boast the 6th best offensive line in the NFL.
RAW PROJECTION: 954 rushing yards & 1,004 rushing yards (2 sources)
JAMES CONNER OVER 825.5 RUSHING YARDS
Last year in 15 games he only put up 752 rushing yards but this year he is projected to top 1,000 rushing yards and has virtually no competition for touches. Arizona may lean on the running game a bit more while Hopkins is suspended. The offensive line for the Cardinals has an average age over 30 years old which make them susceptible to injuries. Not my favorite pick but definitely one that I think we can look at this year.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON OVER 1350.5 RECEIVING YARDS
In 2 years he has put up 1,400 receiving yards (in his rookie season) and then 1,616 last year. Nothing has changed and this line should be 1,400-1,450 so jumping on 1,350.5. Both of his projections are around 1,500 yards.
JA’MARR CHASE OVER 1,250.5 RECEIVING YARDS
In his rookie year he put up 1,455 which is impressive watching him jump up in double coverage and bring down these long Joe Burrow passes. 1,250.5 is just too low for me to pass up. Justin Jefferson went from 1,400 in his rookie year to over 1,600 the following year so even if Ja’Marr Chase regresses to match his rookie year stat line he is still crushing this line by 200 yards. Ja’Marr Chase as the 12th easiest schedule for the WR position! His raw projection is 1,430 and 1,460 yards.
TEE HIGGINS OVER 975.5 RECEIVING YARDS
His raw projection is around 200 yards over this number so it popped off the chart for me. In his rookie year he put up 908 and then last year he really broke out putting up 1,091 and should be the clear WR-2 in the offense. If Chase gets double teamed that will give Tee Higgins to some additional looks in one-on-one coverage. Like we said above Cincy has the 12th easiest schedule for WRs.
BRANDON COOKS OVER 975.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Hard not to take an over on a WR-1 that plays on one of the worst teams in the league. They should be down a bunch with a ton of “garbage time” yards coming their way. Cooks was OVER this number in 2021, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015 giving him a 6-1 “OVER” run. His raw projection this season is 1,081 yards and 1,036 yards both projecting him to go over this number. As an added BONUS Houston has the 6th easiest schedule for the WR position.
JAYLEN WADDLE OVER 925.5 RECEIVING YARDS
He put up 1,015 yards last year as a rookie and with the addition of Tyreek Hill most coverage should move toward Tyreek. His raw projection is 1,103 yards which is 175 yards OVER this line. Typically, most player props are close to the player projections but when I find some that are 150-200 yards different those are ones I like to dig in and check out. 4th easiest schedule for the WR position and Waddle could regress and still nail this over.
COURTLAND SUTTON OVER 900.5 RECEIVING YARDS
I like Sutton or Jeudy to go OVER this year with Russell Wilson at QB. When I was looking at these two I only wanted one for the article and went with Sutton. Sutton has a raw projection of 1,050 yards while Jeudy was around 950. When I compared their Prize Pick lines Jeudy was 925.5 which was only a difference of around 25 yards but Sutton was lower at 900.5 so taking the larger gap. Second easiest schedule for the WR position in 2022!
GABE DAVIS OVER 875.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Gabe Davis was the WR-4 last year and thus only put up 549 yards. Now he moves into the WR-2 spot and has been a “standout” in training camp. Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley both gone giving Gabe Davis a projected receiving line over 1,100 yards which would crush this total. Even if they miss the projection and he sits at 900 yards which is low for a WR-2 that is still an OVER!
MICHAEL THOMAS OVER 800.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Is Michael Thomas healthy? If so, he only needs to average 48 yards per game and play 17 of the 18 games to slide over this number. Since they are unlikely to make the playoffs he should play 18 games and then he only needs to average 44.5 yards per game functioning as the WR-1. This is a WR who has 1,725 and 1,405 yards with Brees under center so even the downgrade at QB should get him over his number. His raw projection across most sites is sitting around 900 yards. Saints hold the 11th easiest schedule for the WR position in 2022.
AARON RODGERS OVER 3.5 300+ PASSING YARD GAMES
He is projected for 7 this year which is a stretch but over recent years he has 4, 5, 4 and 4 so asking for another 4 isn’t a stretch. Packers sitting with the 13th easiest schedule for QBs.
TOM BRADY UNDER 8.5 300+ PASSING YARD GAMES
Love some Brady but this line is inflated considering his age and it’s likely Tampa Bay will run the ball more in 2022. In terms of 300+ games over past seasons he has only put up 8, 7, 5, 5, 6, 5, 7, 5, 6 and 8. We have to get back to 2011 when he had 11 before we see an OVER. With the number at 8.5 and not 8 I really like the UNDER here. Tampa Bay also has the 2nd HARDEST Schedule for the QB in 2022!
DERRICK HENRY UNDER 8.5 100+ RUSHING YARD GAMES
Only projected for 3-4 100+ yard games I was curious why his prop was 8.5? TEN will take a step back and Henry is now 28 years old and last year lost almost a yard per carry than his prior year. He has only been over 8.5 one time and that was in 2020 during his big season. That is giving him 5, 10, 6, 2 and 2 100+ yard games over recent years. Titans hold the 17th schedule for the RB position so that puts them right near the middle of the pack. Titans offensive line takes a step back and ranks 27th going into the 2022 season. I worry Henry will see more “stacked” boxes with AJ Brown gone and Titans boasting a depleted WR core.
JA’MARR CHASE OVER 5.5 100+ REC YARD GAMES
He is projected for 7 this year and had 5 in his rookie season. Asking for 1 more than his rookie season isn’t asking much for this talent! Soft schedule and great rapport with Joe Burrow should put him over the 5.5.
TRAVIS KELCE OVER 4.5 100+ REC YARD GAMES
With Tyreek Hill gone Kelce should get a few more looks in 2022. He has put up 4, 6, 2 and 5 over the last 4 seasons and is projected for 6 games with 100+ yards this season.
AMON-RA ST. BROWN OVER 77.5 RECEPTIONS
He went nuts at the end of the season last year and finished with 90 catches. 77.5 feels low. Remember last year when he finished the season with 8, 8, 9, 8, 8 and 10 catches? Remember, in most of those games Swift and Hockenson were both out so he got some extra targets but he was able to produce. If he can average only 4.3 catches per game and not get injured he should cruise over this number. I think his projection of 85 catches is a “safe” number we can expect putting us more than 10% over this number.
JA’MARR CHASE OVER 75.5 RECEPTIONS
Now you can see our third Ja’Marr Chase prop! Projected to hit 90+ this season and had 81 last year and that was with 11 drops over 75.5 is the only way to go! Chase is a star and I can’t see a scenario where he falls under this line.
BRANDON AIYUK OVER 57.5 RECEPTIONS
Brandon Aiyuk is having a great preseason and building rapport with Trey Lance. He has 56 and 60 catches over the last 2 years so asking for 58 would be an easy average to target and everything is looking up for him in 2022.
Good Luck Everyone!
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