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NFL Sports Betting Picks (Week 11) from CheatSheetPros!


NFL Sports Betting Picks Week 11 from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

NFL Algo Best Bets are 10-3 on the year with 2 pushes. We haven’t had any plays in the last couple of weeks as nothing was jumping out.


BEST BETS: 10-3 RECORD

New England -3 or -3.5 over Philly

This is our top play this week and I don’t understand the line. If you use the YPP algo that most sport bettors compare games to we have this at New England -10 so I love the FG or FG plus the hook. Our Algo has this game at 28-21 easily covering the spread. StatWise it is ALL NEW ENGLAND. Baltimore was a rough game with the rushing ability from Lamar Jackson but they shut him down in the 2nd half for the most part. Wentz is not a runner so they can get back to their dominant defensive ways. 87% of the tickets are on NE. Philly just doesn’t have the secondary to keep Tom Brady for throwing it all over on them. New England is 2nd in pass defense DVOA and 14th in rush defense DVOA. Plus they are coming off a bye week which is a monster advantage to New England. NE is also 5th vs. WR-1 and 1st vs. WR-2’s. This line is way to low!


HEAVY LEANS: These are plays we like based on our algo but don’t qualify as our “top bets” that fall into the “Best Bets” category.


HOUSTON / BALTIMORE OVER 50.5 OR 51.5

Our Algo has this game scoring a nice 56 points. Vegas line opened at 49 and already out to 51.5. Houston is 8th in points per game at 26.4 and Baltimore is 1st at 33.3. Both teams have pretty solid rush defenses but their pass defenses have holes. We have Baltimore winning this game 31-25. One team will get out early and the other team will start playing catch up and drive this over the top!


NYJETS (+120) over WASHINGTON

We have the NY Jets winning this game 19-14 and that does not take into account Dwayne Haskins is the starting QB. Haskins has looked terrible but he is a rookie and just getting his feet wet so I can understand that. I’ll take Sam Darnold, Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder to ink out a win here on the road. Don’t get me wrong these teams are SHIT! NYJ are 30th in points per game at 14.4 and WAS is even worse at 32nd putting up 12 points per game.


3 TEAM X 10 POINT TEASER: Almost every sportsbook will allow a 3 team 10 point teaser and I love betting these! So here is the one I’m eye balling for this week if you want to ride along with me.


SAN FRANCISCO (PICK) – Line opened at -14 and now down to -10. We have the algo spread on this game should be -8 so we don’t like laying 10. However, SF has the #1 passing defense and allowing a league low of 143.8 passing yards per game. ARI is 21st in rushing defense and 26th in passing defense. San Fran puts up 30+ and ARI can’t keep up!


NEW ENGLAND (+6.5) – Line opened at -3 and now -3.5. 87% of the wagers are on NE.

I mean NE took the loss to Baltimore and then had a bye. So Sanu has another week to get acclimated to the offense plus Bill has 2 weeks to prepare of this game. No way Philly wins this and if by some miracle they do I don’t think they are beating the Pats by an entire touchdown! Tom Brady will tear about this secondary.


MINNESOTA VIKINGS (PICK) – Line opened at -10.5 and now -10. We have this game on our algo has Minny winning 24-17. However, that does not account for Denver starting their rookie QB in Brandon Allen. Denver is 28th in points per game at 16.6 while Minny is 9th at 26.2. Both teams have solid defenses but I’m going to side with the experienced players in Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and Diggs to get this done.


--> PIVOT PICK: If you don’t like any of the plays above (Minny is my least favorite) then my pivot game would be OVER 41.5 in the Houston Baltimore game. We have that game at 55-56 so that gives you plenty of wiggle room in what should be a shoot-out game of high powered offenses.


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