NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I wrote the Thanksgiving article this morning and 70% through it we had a power surge and I lost it. So I re-wrote the article for the second time and posted it. 1-2 hours after posting it they cancelled the Steelers/Ravens game. Ugh! So now I am moving on to Sunday NFL stacks and fillers for the week.
STACKING FOR GPPS:
The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.
TEAM STACKS WE LIKE THIS WEEK:
GAME: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS vs. ATLANTA FALCONS
VEGAS: Opened at 56 and now at 55, monster total for us to attack.
REASON: Stack is CHEAP and the players are projected for less than what the opponent team is allowing so plenty of DFS points there to exceed value.
Derek Carr / Darren Waller / Nelson Agholor & Julio/Calvin
This stack has to include Darren Waller (6000) as ATL is dead last vs. covering the TE position. Derek Carr has always had 20+ DKP when Waller has 15+ DKP so there is an easy correlation. I like Nelson Agholor (4900) because he is cheap and has the most targets the last two games by anyone catching the ball for Vegas not named Waller with 14. ATL has the 26th rated pass defense and they are allowing 300 PY per game which ranks 31st in the NFL. ATL holds a decent rush “D” ranking 10th and only allowing 106.5 RY/G so the path for points is going to come through the air. If you take this stack with Calvin and add a mediocre DEF play like the NYG you have around 5,800 per play left.
GAME: NEW YORK GIANTS VS. CINCY BENGALS
VEGAS: Opened at 43 and still at 43
REASON: Stack is CHEAP, will be low owned and allows you plenty of money to play with for the other spots in the lineup.
Daniel Jones / Sterling Shepard / Evan Engram
This stack has to include Shepard if he is playing as he has double digit fantasy points in each of the last 4 games and the is the only WR for the Giants to accomplish that. He has 11, 12, 15 and 18 DKP over the last 4. That isn’t great but it’s better than the rest of the WRs. I also like Slayton (4900) if you want to squeeze him in there as he has big play upside and he has hit double digits in 2 of the last 3 games. Anytime I can get a TE to correlate that is usually where I personally lean because the TE spots this year are almost laughable. Engram had a rough game last time out with only 4 DKP but prior to that he has 16, 12 and 11. Using the same NYG DEF at (3200) you have 6,340 left per player and this allows you plenty of room for STUDS in that lineup. Want to make it even better? Add A.J. Green (3600) in the run back stack and now you have over 7,000 per player left. You could add Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb and Keenan Allen and still have 3500 left over for a small flex play.
GAME: CAROLINA VS. MINNY
VEGAS: Opened at 48.5 and now up to 51.
REASON: Stack is mid-low in pricing and has huge upside with no CMC on the field.
Teddy Bridgewater / PICK 2 (Robby A, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel) and run back with Jefferson or Thielen.
This stack using a 3200 DEF like the NYG will allow you 5,725 per player left to fill up your roster. D.J. Moore over the last two games has 25 and 20 DKP, Curtis Samuel has 21, 4, 30 and 22 over the last 4. Robby is a consistent 10-15. I like going Moore and Samuel as the average person will use Robby + 1 other and the other two have been smashing as of late.
GAME: CHARGERS VS. BILLS
VEGAS: Opened at 52 and moved up to 53.5.
REASON: Stack is expensive but this game could become at 60 point shootout and there are studs on both sides that we can run it back with.
Justin Herbert / Keenan Allen / Hunter Henry & Stefon Diggs
This stack will cost you a pretty penny but it is not the most expensive stack. You will have 4800 left per play to fill in the roster spots. Herbert has been great this year for the Chargers and the team is a great team to stack because they are putting up the 27th most rushing yards per game (yes they suck) and they are 4th in passing yards per game. Keenan Allen (8000) is getting an insane amount of targets per game. He is coming off a 22 target game and his prior 4 gave been 7, 11, 11 and 13. Stefon Diggs has double digit targets in each 5 of the last 6 games and an average of 10.5 on the season. John Brown and Cole Beasley had 9 and 12 last week so they could be sneaky picks to put in there for a double stack on each side.
Josh Allen / Stefon Diggs / Cole Beasley and Keenan Allen
This is expensive but get some exposure to both sides and hope for fireworks!
GAME: SAINTS VS. BRONCOS
VEGAS: Opened at 45.5 and down to 43.5.
REASON: Stack is cheap and gives us enough free money to play all of our favorite players in the rest of our lineup.
Taysom Hill / Michael Thomas / Emmanuel Sanders & Tim Patrick
This stack is dirt cheap and last week I loved what I saw from Hill under center. When you get 4 points for a passing TD and 6 for a rushing TD Taysom is a guy that is more likely to run it in than throw it giving him some upside. His price is up a little at 6200 but that is still cheap when Mahomes is 8000 this week. Hill also peppered Michael Thomas with targets (12) and then Emmanuel Sanders (6). Alvin Kamara only had 1 target and took a back seat with Taysom under center. On the run back I like Tim Patrick because he is only 4900 and he has 20, 10 and 13 DKP over the last 3 weeks giving us a consistent 2-2.5x.
GAME: KANSAS CITY VS. TAMPA BAY
VEGAS: Opened at 53 and up to 56.
REASON: Stack is nose bleed pricing so you really have to get creative with your other spots but if you can then you might have some easy stack points in this one.
Patrick Mahomes / Tyreek Hill / Travis Kelce / (Godwin or Brown)
Tom Brady / Pick 2 (Chris Godwin / Antonio Brown / Mike Evans) and run back with Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce.
These stacks are expensive but this will be a fun game to watch and should have plenty of points. Hill and Kelce are both projected for 6-7 catches and around 80 yards and 60% for a TD. One of them will have a big game and the other should have a decent game. Tampa Bay is 2nd vs. WR-1 but Tyreek Hill is so fast I don’t really think the coverage stats affect him. Tampa is also 23rd vs. the TE so Travis Kelce should be targeted frequently.
PLAYERS TO FILL IN WITH YOUR STACKS:
JAMES WHITE (4500) – No more Rex Burkhead this year so that leaves James White, Damien Harris and Sony Michel. James White is only 4500 and on a site like DK where it’s PPR he is almost locked in for 3-5 catches with 40-50 yards giving you a solid floor. If he scores that is just a bonus that will blow away his value at this low price tag.
WAYNE GALLMAN (5000) – Gallman has put up 19, 15, 13 and 16 DKP over the last 4 weeks and while that is not amazing that is hitting between 3x-4x value which is enough for a low end punt. If you are stacking games like the Chiefs, Bills and Chargers then you need some low end RBs to squeeze in there. CIN is allowing 136.2 rush yards per game (29th).
DEVIN BOOKER (4000) – This guy is dirt cheap and has been getting some regular touches. I mean LV needs to save the hits on Jacobs if they are going to make a playoff run. Booker has 3, 21 and 13 DKP over the last 3. His floor is almost nothing but has a ceiling of 5x if LV can get a lead and eat clock. GPP punt only if you are doing multiple lineups.
RONALD JONES (6100) – If this game does not turn into an explosion of points it is because Tampa Bay is going to attack the 30th rated rushing defense of Kansas City. KC is allowing 133.5 rush yards per game (26th). RoJo could have one of those games where he is pushing 30 DKP like he did in Week 6 and Week 10. That is pushing 5x value so that is great upside for GPPs and would be contrarian off the TB passing game stacks.
I didn’t hit on any expensive guys because everyone knows who they are but the guys that have had monster performances over the last 3 weeks that I would use for the expensive fill ins are Dalvin Cook, Keenan Allen, Diontae Johnson, Tyreek Hill, Curtis Samuel, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs.
I want to wrap up with some lineup building thoughts. I’ve said this over and over and I’m going to keep writing it because I still have people in my own chat group that are not doing it. Make sure you play some CASH GAMES with your GPPs. These are Double Ups, Triple Ups and even 3-10 man contest. My personal entries include max entering a 20 max GPP and then taking the amount I spent to enter the 20 max and doing at least 2x that in GPPs. So, if you are doing the $1 per lineup x 20 max = $20 in GPP lineups then you should do $40-$50 in SINGLE ENTRY double ups. Most weeks you will lost 25-50% in the GPP and hit the cash game and turn a profit. Some weeks you will nail the GPP for a big profit and hit your cash games. Those small profits build up so when you do have a week you lose your cash lineup then it doesn’t hurt your bankroll.
Thanks for reading,