NFL Turkey Day Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Everyone have a great Thanksgiving during this tough pandemic shit show of a year. I normally have over 12-15 family members but due to the pandemic and high risk individuals we have cut it down to almost nothing this year so I’ll be watching a ton of football on Thursday!
STACKING FOR GPPS:
The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.
TURKEY DAY GAME BREAKDOWN:
HOUSTON / DETROIT
Vegas total opened at 51.0 and has moved up to 51.5 and is the highest total on the 3 game slate.
Watson / Fuller / Cooks & Golladay – This would be my preferred stack but Watson is 7400 so it is going to limit you on the players you can use to fill in and what defense you will be able to choose. Since Week 5 Watson has put up 24+ DKP in every game except one so he is one of the safest QB plays on the slate. Since HOU has virtually no running game (as they rank 31st in rush yards per game) Watson always has to get it done through the air and they pass 62% of the plays.
JORDAN AKINS (2900) – He is dirt cheap and coming off a 13.3 DKP game last week so if you need a “punt” TE or to free up some money he is viable to use with either Cooks or Fuller. I just ran a lineup with Watson/Akins/Cooks and if frees up enough cash to put together almost any build you want for this slate.
D’ANDRE SWIFT (6,500) – He is almost a “must play” for me in cash games if he is in. DET is allowing 139 rush yards per game (30th) and they have the 31st DLine, 29th in allowing 5-10 yar runs and even 22nd in runs of 10+ yards. Swift has a couple 25-30 DKP games and that is pushing 5x his salary in a game they desperately need to win.
Stafford / Golladay (if playing) / Marvin Jones & Cooks – This stack will free up a lot of money. If you are going to fade D’Andre Swift or thinks he has a bad game then you can hit the other side of this game.
MARVIN HALL (3900) – He is a cheap GPP contrarian play and has hit 14+ DKP in 2 of his last 4 games.
WASHINGTON / DALLAS
Vegas opened at 48 and has moved down to 46.
Both of these stacks are going to be CHEAP and have some upside to them. The offenses rank 30th and 25th so it’s not going to be a 60 point outburst of points so temper expectations.
Alex Smith / Terry McLaurin / J.D. McKissic & CeeDee Lamb
Andy Dalton / CeeDee Lamb / Schultz & McLaurin
The thought of stacking Andy Dalton and this Cowboys team makes me nervous. However, he did put up 20.3 DKP last week and he has the weapons to be successful AND he should be more comfortable in this offense. With is low mid 5k price tag that is pushing almost 4x upside. The reason I went with Dalton Schultz over Cooper is 1) price savings as you go from 5700 down to 3800 and 2) it also gives you something different as the average user is going to take Cooper and Lamb and then start filling in from there. Schultz has put up 13, 9 and 11 DKP over the last 3 weeks giving you a solid floor and filling in a tough TE spot.
ANTONIO GIBSON (6000) – I find myself with Swift and Gibson for my RBs in my early builds this week. Gibson is going to face the 25th rushing defense that is allowing a whopping 153.8 rushing yards per game (31st). DAL also has the 29th OLine, 26th in allowing runs of 5-10 yards and 29th in allowing runs of 10+ yards. Gibson also has put up 17, 23, 14 and 22 DKP over the last 4 weeks giving you a floor of around 2.5x value.
TERRY MCLAURIN (7000) – He is expensive but gives you a solid floor, he does not have 5x upside like some of the other plays, I mean, his team is 29th in points per game and they are using the RBs quite a bit. However, if he can get 5-7 catches, 100+ yards and a TD that is around 25 DKP giving you 3.0-3.5x value. He has put up 13, 18, 28 and 22 DKP over the last 4 weeks. DAL is also 27th in WR-1 coverage.
RAVERS / STEELERS
This total opened at 46 and down to 44.5 and is the lowest of the 3 games on the slate.
This game features two solid defenses in the NFL as the Steelers rank 1st in total D and Ravens rank 7th in total D.
Big Ben / Diontae Johnson / (Claypool -or- JuJu) & Mark Andrews – Apparently, Steelers have forgot how to run the ball and they have been passing at a 60%+ clip over the last few games. If you think that is going to continue then I like this stack above. Ben (6600) has put up 18, 32 and 28 DKP over the last 3 games. I don’t like any of the BAL WRs and so I went with he TE Mark Andrews as he is the only one that is consistently getting targets and putting up points. In the last 5 games Diontae Johnson has left early from 1 game I did not return and the other games he has 26, 27, 14 and 29 DKPs. I think he may of exited early in the 14 DKP game but I’m not 100% sure. I like taking Johnson and either one of Claypool or JuJu to go with the stack.
GUS EDWARDS (4000) – He has a tough matchup vs. this PIT DEF that ranks 4th vs. the run and only allowing 103.4 yards per game. However, they are still allowing 100 years per game and Edwards is CHEAP and will get the majority of carries. Love him as a “clear” punt play at the RB spot if you can load up the WRs and TEs on the roster.
Stay turned for the NCAA Betting article that is coming and the NFL Sunday article will also be up today! Good luck to you this week and stay safe homies! Thanks for reading,
Haze