NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NFL was good to us last week as our cash game lineup had Drew Lock & Jerry Jeudy and after a rough first half they went nuts in the second half and Lock ended up putting 7x value on his low 5k-ish salary. This week I'm going to focus on stacking because that seems to be the thing that most people are struggling with. When I talk about stacking I am referring to taking a team QB + 1 or 2 pass catches and then run it back with a pass catcher from the other side. That should be the skeleton to every lineup you build for GPPs. In our sheets I have stack cost and the stacks for an average of 5500 per player and less are rock solid. These stacks allow you to fill in the other parts of the lineup with studs. I had a stack last week with Dalvin Cook + CMC and that was a fun line to watch climb the leaderboards!
RUNNING BACKS:
NICK CHUBB – He should be back this week and what a week to get some Chubby! Facing a HOU rush defense that ranks 28th and allowing a league high 159.5 rushing yards per game. In the trenches on our cheat sheet we have CLE with the #3 OLine facing the #31 DLine in the Texans. For second level yards, these are rushes from 5-10 yards we have CLE who ranks #1 and HOU ranks 27th in allowing them. Finally, for the 10+ yard runs CLE ranks 6th and HOU ranks 32nd allowing the most 10+ yard rushes.
J.D. McKISSIC – If you need a cheap punt RB he has been putting up 2x-3x each week. He has 17, 7, 14, 11 and 10 DKP.
QUARTER BACKS:
DESHAUN WASTON – Sitting at 6900 on DK this week he is a solid QB for GPP or cash games. Over the last 5 weeks his lowest DKP total is 23.9 which is over 3x his current salary. In Week 5-7 he put up 29.9, 35 and 27.2 DKP. HOU can’t run the ball as they rank 31st in rushing with only 87.6 yards per game and they are current the #10 passing offense putting up 280.8 PY per game. Watson is a rock solid option as the team has no defense so he is always playing catchup.
KYLER MURRAY – Welcome to the NFL Kyler Murray! His price tag is now 8000 on DK so we need 24-32 DK points to his that 3x-4x value. His last two games he has put up 42 and 41 points and that is 5x his current salary so we have the upside for GPPs. Prior to that he has 29, 30 and 24 DK points. I don’t mind the price tag of 8000. Bills have the 15th passing defense but Murray has rushing upside and he will get his through the air or on the ground!
TOM BRADY – When I went to this game on our cheat sheet I saw Teddy B at 6100 but then Tom Brady is only 6300 and coming off a thumping. Now he gets to face the 29th total defense in the Panthers. Brady is great for GPP because his floor is around 2x (except last week) and he has 5x-6x upside. In Week 7 he dropped 39.9 DKP and in Week 4 he put up 36.5. Tampa Bay is passing 63% of the time. Get right game for Brady and the Bucs!
WIDE RECEIVERS:
BRANDON COOKS – Love him at 1100 less than Will Fuller and he is getting the most targets on the team. Over the last 4 weeks Cooks has 9, 11, 9 and 11 targets and Fuller is at 6, 6, 11 and 6.
COOPER KUPP / ROBERT WOODS – Seattle is giving up the most fantasy points to the WR position. Kupp is coming off a 23 target game in Week 8 and has 7+ targets in every game all the way back to Week 3. Woods is 300 cheaper and has 8, 5 and 10 targets the last 3. Gerald Everett (3100) is cheap and has 8, 6 and 5 targets the last 3 so he might not be a bad punt TE.
KEENAN ALLEN – Justin Herbert was the best thing to happen for Allen. Allen has 28, 22 and 26 DKP over his last 3 targets and 10+ targets in each game. MIA ranks 18th vs. WR-1 coverage. MIA has a great CB in Xavien Howard but he only covers the slot 9% of the time. Nik Needham covers the slot 89% of the time and has a really low PFF grade in the 50’s allowing a team hit 69% catch rate. Allen runs out of the slot 45% of the time.
ALLEN LAZARD (4000) – You could go DaVante Adams but his price tag is a cool 9000 this week on DK. Now he is hitting value at that price but it is taking away his upside. Adams has 36, 30 and 47 DK points over his last 3 games so if you can afford him he is fine to use. Lazard who is returning this week from the IR is 5000 LESS and should be the WR-2 this week. Lazard in Weeks 1-3 he put up 18, 8 and 29 DK points. Packers face off against the Jags this week who are giving up 280 passing yards per game (28th) and hold the dead last passing defense.
FAVORITE AFFORDABLE STACKS:
DeShaun Watson (6900) + Brandon Cooks (5600) + Jarvis Landry (5900) – No OBJ so Landry will be the WR1. In Week 8 without OBJ he had 11 targets and no one else on the team had more than 3. Houston can’t run so stack them up and run it back with the CLE WR-1.
Aaron Rodgers (7900) + Allen Lazard (4000) + DJ Chark (6200) – Everyone will be on Adams and rightfully so but for GPP I prefer dropping down and saving the cash to be different. Packers should easily win this game so I don’t think Adams will go crazy like he has been in the prior games.
Daniel Jones (5200) + Sterling Shepard (5000) + Travis Fulgham (6400) or Jalen Reagor (4200) – cheap stack for GPP as NYG can’t run and pass 61% of the time.
Drew Lock (5500) + Jerry Jeudy (5600) + Nelson Agholor (4900) or Henry Ruggs (4500) – Lock dropped 7x value for us last week with a big second half comeback. Jeudy is coming into his own now that they switched him to an outside WR instead of a slot WR.
Kyler Murray (8000) + Christian Kirk (5700) + run it back with someone cheaper since Stefon Diggs is too expensive this week at 7500 and he will see shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson. I like John Brown (5300) or Gabriel Davis (3400) on the run back. Christian Kirk (5700) as he is 2k less than Hopkins and has put up 20+ DKP in each of the last 3 games. DeAndre Hopkins will see shadow coverage from Tre-Davious White this week who is a top cover corner. I still expect Hopkins to do well but this just limits his ceiling for GPPs.
Justin Herbert (6600) + Keenan Allen (7100) or Mike Williams (5400) + Preston Williams (4300) – Last week MIA and ARI became a shootout and this could be the same. Tua appears to be favoring Preston Williams (4300) but if you prefer DeVante Parker (5000) they are both solid run back options or stacks with Tua.
Tua Tagovailoa (5600) + Preston Williams (4300) + DeVante Parker (5000) + run back with Keenan Allen (7100) – Solid cheap stack and I would run back both sides of this game for GPPs. Both of these teams rank 27th and 28th in rushing and they are both passing 55% of the time. LAC have the 6th best passing offense and MIA has the 14th best passing offense.
DVP SCREEN SHOT FOR THIS WEEK:
TARGETS LAST 3 GAMES - TOP 15 PLAYERS:
LINEUP BUILDING PROCESS:
The biggest question I get is how I construction my lineups.
#1 - Find your STACK. Pick your QB, pass catchers and then the run back player.
#2 - To determine amount of money left over find a cheap DEFENSE and plug in.
#3 - I usually go to TE and find a mid-low TE that I want to run if they are not already in my stack.
#4 - This allows me to determine the amount left over to fill in the holes.
#5 - HAVE FUN! This is the best part of lineup building because I'll take a shell lineup like this and duplicate it 5-7 times and then fill it in with different players. For example: You can add NICK CHUBB, AARON JONES, JARVIS LANDRY. I usually try to fit a few STUDS or at least 2 STUDS and one mid-tier guy with upside.
HERE IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE:
I love stacking with a WR/TE combo. In this example we are hitting the NYG side and running it back with Jalen Reagor. I have added in my cheap punt defense in the Broncos and now I have 7,175 left off for EACH PLAYER. Using these CHEAP STACKS you can fill this in with STUDS! Whoever you want.
EXAMPLE FILL INS:
#1 - Alvin Kamara + Nick Chubb + DaVante Adams + 4700 left over for flex spot.
#2 - Aaron Jones + Nick Chubb + Keenan Allen + DK Metcalf.
The main thing I want to point out is that you can fix in with studs and it makes watching NFL games so much more fun. If you are running 20 max tourneys then find 4-8 different cheap stacks and then run them 3-4 times each with different studs. When you have a week where Dalvin Cook is in a smash spot like the last two weeks you can put him in EVERY STACKED LINEUP!
Thanks for reading my article and good luck to everyone this weekend! I will write up my betting article in the next couple of days for this weeks picks!
Thanks for reading,
Haze