NFL Daily Fantasy Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
This week I'm really going to focus on using screen shots for some of my favorite stacks so you can see how I use the NFL Cheatsheet and the tabs I'm looking at to get some "better stats". I also want you to see the things that jump out at me when looking for a stackable team. Let's dive in!
STACKING FOR GPPS:
The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.
STACKS WE LIKE FOR THIS WEEK:
STACK #1 - ATLANTA FALCONS
Matt Ryan + 2 Pass Catchers of your choice!
Matt Ryan is (DK-6000 & FD-7300) this week and I typically look for 4x value on DK so that means we need 6000 x 4x = 24 DKP. So, let's look at the NFL sheet and his recent weeks in terms of DKPs on the "Stack Tab". If you look at the screen shot below you can see he has hit that number in 4 of his last 5 games so the ATL offense is playing well and we know they can't run so passing is their only option at this point.
Now finding the two pass catchers is the tricky part because no one really stands out. Cordarrelle Patterson has been putting up solid numbers so he would be one of my preferred options. The secondary guy always flips between Pitts / Gage / Sharpe / Zaccheaus. Pitts has a 29.9 and 26.3 DKPK game for the highest ceiling so if you can afford it that would be my preference. Gage would be my 2nd option was he has been over 13 DKP twice.
I also refer over to the "Weekly Target Chart" so I can determine where the targets are going. Looking at the screen shot below we know Ridley is out so Pitts is the top options with 7-6-5 the last 3 weeks. Patterson is solid with 6-5-5 and then Gage had 8 last week and then 6 two weeks ago. The other guys you can see their DKP came from only a couple targets and catching a TD with one of them. I'd rather have the higher target options so prefer Pitts > Patterson > Gage in that order if you can afford it.
STACK #2 - COLTS
Carson Wentz + Michael Pittman
Colts show up in several different ways to sort the stack wizard. Here I sorted by "stack value" and then looked for the Vegas implied total on the right and CAP%. The goal here is finding a stack under 50% of your cap space with a high implied team total. Dallas (which we will address later) comes up and the Colts.
Looking at our "Stack Tab" there are a few things that jump out at me. JAX allowing the 26th most passing yards per game and the 32nd rated passing defense. Jax is decent against the run allowing only 3.8 yards per carry which is 3rd best in the NFL so passing might be the easiest path for success with Wentz/Pittman.
Colts are 13th in "Pass Pro" and Jax is 31st in applying pressure so Wentz should have time to throw.
We have Colts getting as high as 30 points in this game which gives us big upside for the cheap stack combo.
Looking at the recent games on the "Stack Tab" we are looking for Wentz to give us 4x so at (DK-5900 & FD-7500) we need just under 24 DKPs. He is consistently over 3x and close to 4x almost every week.
Michael Pittman is the clear WR-1 with a 5x game in Week 8.
If you want a secondary pass catcher Zach Pascal comes up on the "Weekly Target Chart" with 7-8-6 targets the last 3 weeks.
STACK #3 - LA CHARGERS
Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen
Last week the game against Philly the LAC had a 28-20 first down edge and 445-331 yardage edge pulling a 27-24 win. Of those 445 total yards 356 came through the air which is what we want to see for "stacking".
Justin Herbert (DK-7300 & FD-8000) needs 7.3 x 4x = 29.2 DKPs for 4x value. Looking back at recent games he had 34.6 last week and 45.8 in Week 5 and even 30.8 in Week 3. He is someone that has a big ceiling, I mean look at the 45.8 that is 6.3x value on his current salary and even his game last week of 34.6 is 4.7x value!
LAC are passing at the 6th highest rate in the NFL (64%) so stack up Herbert and Allen and build around them.
STACK #4 - TAMPA BAY
Tom Brady + Chris Godwin
So we just said LAC are passing at the 6th highest rate in the NFL but do you know what team is #1? Yes, you guessed it! Bucs passing 67% of players for the highest rate in the NFL.
Something else we like to see is that WAS is horrible against the pass giving up the most pass yards per game at 286.8 (32nd).
We project Tampa Bay to put up 30-38 points in this game giving us a big ceiling.
WAS is decent against the run allowing a lower 4.0 yards per carry and the 11th least amount of rushing yards per game.
We need around 30 DKP for Tom Brady to hit 4x and you can see he has done that in 5 of the last 8 weeks which a high of 40.7 which is over 5.5x value.
Antonio Brown should still be out this week and we can see with AB out the last two weeks Godwin has put up 28.1 and 31.0 DKP so he is my preferred option.
SPECIAL NOTE: Notice that when Tom Brady has a lower scoring game Leonard Fournette has a bigger game. This is usually because he has 2 rushing touchdowns plus a bunch of yards. If not stacking Tom Brady I love using Leonard Fournette in your lineups because either Tom or Fournette will have a big game this week so using them as building blocks.
FILLER PLAYERS WE LIKE THIS WEEK:
Most of your stacks are going to be QB + WR/TE so we are going to focus on the RBs that you can fill in around your team and game stacks!
MARK INGRAM - The Saints brought in and worked out several RBs last week which seemed odd after signing Mark Ingram but this is a big red flag on the health of Alvin Kamara. I went around in all my season long leagues and picked up Mark Ingram two days ago when this was mentioned. Now it's being reported that Kamara is Q with a knee sprain. I can't pay his price tag this week but like a pivot to Mark Ingram who should get more work even if AK starts. He is only $4,500 on DK.
JONATHAN TAYLOR - He is fine to use, he is the 3rd highest priced RB and putting up 3x-4x consistently so if you can afford him and like him then go for it! I don't like wasting time to high priced studs.
DALVIN COOK - Cook has one of the best matchups of the week and $100 lower than Taylor. LAC are giving up the most rushing yards per game at 161.6 (32nd) and an obserd 5.0 yards per carry (32nd). The only thing that worries me is that everyone else can see that stat and he will be chalky. With an $8K price tag on DK he needs 32 points for 4x and he doesn't have a 32 DKP game all year. I think your good for cash but GPP he can't return the value you need to take down a GPP.
D'ERNEST JOHNSON - Yes, Nick Chubb could play this week and I hope he does but if not then we have to eat some Johnson chalk. He is only $4,700 on DK and Cleveland runs the ball at the 3rd highest rate and they are the #1 rushing offense putting up over 160 rush yards per game. The last time he started was against Denver in Week 7 and he ran 22 times for 146 yards for 27.8 DKP at only $4800. The pure volume alone would make him a chalk we gotta eat.
CORDARELLE PATTERSON - We need around 25 fantansy points for that 4x range and he had 22.6 last week with 9 carries and 6 grabs. With no Calvin Ridley his floor is locked in but his price tag is climbing. Last week he caught 6 balls for 126 receiving yards and this offensive is passing at a high clip. DK he is great to use due to the PPR scoring but less of a fan on Fanduel.
JAMES CONNER - Once again James Conner will be a workhouse back and priced at only $6,300 on DK this week. Last week he had 21 carries (great volume!) for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns and caught another 5 balls for 77 MORE yards and another touchdown putting up 40.3 DKPs. Eat the chalk!
LEONARD FOURNETTE - If you don't want to eat some RB chalk then Fournette isn't a bad option. He has solid 3x stability and 5x upside. He just had 30.7 DKP in Week 6. His price tag has slid down from 6400 to 6100 after a tough game against the Saints. Fournette is 5th in targets per game for the Bucs and 2 of the guys ahead of him aren't playing this week.
MELVIN GORDON - I don't think he heard the message that JaVonte Williams was going to take over the RB-1 role in Denver. Last week he had 21 carries for 80 yards and a touchdown and 2 more grabs for 17.5 DKP. The prior week he had 20.2 DKP and priced at only 5300 this week that is over 3x and pushing 4x at a dirt cheap price.
JORDAN HOWARD - Out of no where he got 17 carries last week to lead the backfield and put up 71 yards and a touchdown. It was only 13.1 DKP and had no involvement in the passing game but sub 5K RB getting goal line carries is always worth a look. Prefer on Fanduel > DK since they aren't full PPR scoring.
DEVIN SINGLETARY - Zack Moss might not go this week and if he doesn't we have to consider Singletary no matter how ugly it is, lol. Last week he had 7 catches on 8 targets. This is a game they should put up 30+ actual points and he will be involved. If he can get the back field to himself I could see 50-60 rushing yards, a touchdown and 3 for 30 giving up around 18 DKPs which is 3.5x at a lower ownership number.
BRANDON BOLDEN - Damien Harris and Stevenson were both still sideline at practice today and that is a good indication they likely won't play this week. Bolden sitting at 4400 on DK could get the lions share of carries in the backfield for the Patriots. He has flashing upside he just doesn't get the opportunity but this week that may change. On 8 carries last week he averaged 6.8 yards per carry and 6.5 on 4 carries the week prior. In Week 7 he also caught 6 balls on 7 targets for 79 yards. He can run the rock and catch the ball out of the backfield.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze