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NFL Week 13 Breakdown


NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!

QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

NFL covid coaster continues as we saw the Ravens game last week get bounced around until they landed on a Wednesday afternoon time.


STACKING FOR GPPS:

The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.

TEAM STACKS WE LIKE THIS WEEK:

I always like to explain the benefits of the money per player left over so for the stack I’m using I’m going to go low punt defense around 2400 (Falcons) and also a lower TE (if not used in the stack) and fill in someone like Akins (2900). If there is money left over you can come back and upgrade the defense at the end.


CHICAGO BEARS

MITCHELL TRUBISKY / ALLEN ROBINSON / DARNELL MOONEY


I’m torn on the “David Montgomery” chalk week coming up. He was also touted when he faced TEN and put up 6 DKPs and let everyone down. I don’t mind if you want to add him to the stack instead of Mooney because he is only 5500 this week. The argument for playing Montgomery is that he has been through a tough schedule this year facing the Saints, Rams, Bucs and Colts and they have top rush defenses so maybe there is some life left in little ole D-Montgomery.


Trubisky (5400) is cheap and he threw the ball 46 times last week and put up 21.8 DKP (so around 4x value). He also peppered Allen Robinson (6700) with 13 targets and he ended up with 8 grabs for 74 yards and 2 scores. If playing Allen Robinson I think Trubisky is a must. Mooney only put up 8.4 DKP last week but he had 9 targets and that is almost twice as many as the next WR.


If you run the stack above “as-is” with the 2400 DEF and 2900 TE that is going to leave you 7,300 per player to fill in 4 spots. That is huge! That means you could use Dalvin Cook (9500) and Derrick Henry (9200) and still have 5,250 for the other two players. I’m not endorsing those two guys and we will talk about them later but you get the idea that you can load up with your studs that you enjoy watching.


LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

DEREK CARR / NELSON AGHOLOR / HUNTER RENFROW


Derek Carr (5800) is cheap and has 4x upside. Josh Jacobs is banged up and might not go this week and that means Carr may have to throw it a few more times. Jets hold the 32nd DVOA pass defense and they are allowing 284 PY per game (30th). Jets are also 30th vs. WR-1 and 31st vs. WR-2 coverage. If Nelson Agholor (5200) can go (Q with ankle injury) he is in a great spot. Hunter Renfrow (4200) is dirt cheap and had 9 targets last week catching 7 balls for 73 yards. If you prefer Henry Ruggs (4500) he is also in play, but he is sitting at 5 or less targets per game so his floor is much lower. This also leaves you with 7,350 per player left over. Vegas has a big bounce back this week against the hapless J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

RUSSELL WILSON / D.K. METCALF / DAVID MOORE


This stack is expensive and only leaves you 6,350 per player to fill in the holes. But it’s a fun stack to watch and you also have a great floor. Wilson had one back game in Week 10 and then if we look past that game he was on a run of 36, 29, 29 and 20 DKP before last week. No one has a ceiling like Metcalf as 3 of his last 5 games he is over 26+ DKP and is coming off 30.7 DKP and also has a 43 DKP game during that span. Last week he had 13 targets, caught 10 balls for 177 yards. David Moore (3400) is just a cheap piece to add into the stack incase he catches a TD. Lockett and Metcalf hardly ever go off together so you can only play one in your stack with Wilson for a GPP and then add in a cheap TE or David Moore.


GREEN BAY PACKERS

AARON RODGERS / DAVANTE ADAMS / ROBERT TONYAN


Aaron Rodgers (6800) is priced above our other guys in our “cheap stacks” and so it DaVante Adams (9000) but we have a team that can easily score 30+ points and they are trending in the right direction. Adams has 6 straight games with 6+ catches and TD. Robert Tonyan (3700) fills a TE spot that is hard to find value at. This stack will leave you 5,620 per play but that is do-able for this stud stack. Tonyan has been coming on as of late with 10 catches and 2 TDs over the last two games and put up over 30 total DKPs (17.7 last week and 15.4 week prior).


CLEVELAND / TITANS GAME

This is going to be a popular stack with a total of 53.5. Both teams have stud RBs that are in play that will take away from the pass catcher stacking aspect so beware if you run one of these stacks. We see weeks with Derrick Henry taking 30 carries and right now with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt they could do the same and this could be a fast clock moving game if both teams are running the ball.


If you do want to stack it up I like:

BAKER MAYFIELD / JARVIS LANDRY / COREY DAVIS -OR- AJ BROWN


Baker Mayfield is (5300) and that is just dirt cheap and Jarvis Landry is the default WR-1 going up against the 27th pass defense? Yes, please! Landry is coming off a monster 11 target game where he had 8 grabs for 143 yards and a score putting up 31.3 DKP. His price tag jumped 1,000 from 5200 to 6200 but that is still 5x value on what he did last week using this weeks price tag! A.J. Brown is a fine play but 7600 is a little steep for his floor. If you go down to Corey Davis (5100) you save $2,500 in salary and still get a piece. Davis has 3 straight games of 10+ DKPs giving you a solid floor.



PLAYERS TO FILL IN WITH YOUR STACKS:


RUNNING BACKS:

AUSTIN EKELER (7100) – This guy had 16 TARGETS last week, that is crazy! He put up 24 DKP without scoring a TD. If he got into the end zone you are looking at a 30 DKP day and that is over 4x value. He also gives you a solid floor with that many targets. NE is also 25th vs. pass catching RBs!


LATAVIUS MURRAY (5900) – Murray fits this offense much better than Alvin Kamara with Taysom under center. Taysom will run the ball instead of the dump off to Kamara so we are seeing his production drop down and Murray come in as the thumper. Last week Murray had 19 carries for 124 yards and TWO TOUCHDOWNS for 28.6 DKPs. That is pushing 5x value. Who knows what will happen from week to week but not a pay strategy for GPPs.


JONATHAN TAYLOR (5700) – Houston is allowing 154.67 rushing yards per game (31st). Taylor quietly had 22 carries last time he was on the field. If he can get 20+ touches vs. Houston he should crush value. His prior 3 games he had 11, 6 and only 7 rush attempts and put up 5, 10 and 5 DKPs so enough people should be sour on him to possible look elsewhere and we can grab him at lower ownership.


JAMES ROBINSON (7300) – Coming off a 29.9 DKP game where he rushed 22 times for 128 yards and caught 5 balls for 31 yards is ELITE LEVEL RB priced in the low 7k range. Interesting fact is that he has AT LEAST 10 DKP in EVERY GAME THIS YEAR. I don’t think the Jags want Mike Glennon to air it out 40 times so James Robinson should be locked into 20+ touches this week. MIN ranks 19th in rush yards per game and allowing 120.7 per game. In the trenches on our cheat sheet you notice Jax has the 5th OLine facing MIN and their 28th DLine, Jax is 8th in runs of 5-10 yards and MIN is 18th in allowing them. Robinson should have room to run and get his hundo yard and bonus on DK.


DALVIN COOK (9500) – Be careful if you are using Dalvin this week. He has 30, 22, 30, 27 and then 18 carries last week. They need to lighten his load if they want to have him around for the playoffs. He should still get 20 carries but if they get a lead I think Mattison will take over and give him a break. At a whopping 9500 you need almost 30 points just for 3x and 5x is almost impossible. Now he has done it with his 51.6 DKP game in Week 8 vs. the Packers but I’m just weary of it. Playing a stud RB that will be chalky against a bad rush defense price in the nose bleed section of DK, what could go wrong?


DERRICK HENRY (9200) – I’m not worried about Henry getting a light workload as this should be a crazy game with a high total. The price point is worrisome because like Dalvin you need around 30 DKP for just 3x value and 5x is pushing 45 DKP. He is coming off a 41.5 DKP game but in that game he scored 3 times and rushed 27 times for 178 yards. I think he is going to fall more into the 130 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. Now if you want to stretch it and give him 130 and two touchdowns that is around 28 DKPs. So he needs 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns just to get close to 3x value.


NICK CHUBB (7700) – Since coming back he has rushed for 144, 114 and 126 yards in the 3 games with 19, 20 and 19 carries and a couple scores. Solid production from this price point.


WIDE RECEIVERS:

ALLEN ROBINSON (6700) – Got peppered with 13 targets last week and caught two TDs. Trubisky has his favorite WR primed and ready to go and sub 7k pricing.


JARVIS LANDRY (6200) – Default WR-1 in CLE coming off an 8 catch – 143 yard – 1 TD game for over 30 DKPs and still priced in the low 6k range.


BRANDON COOKS (5600) – Cooks went 7 straight games with 10+ DKPs giving you a solid floor (well one was 9.9 but you get the picture). Now Will Fuller is out and he is the default WR-1 and there are 7-8 more targets per game to go around. His ceiling just sky rocketed and he is still priced in the mid 5ks? Take a shot!


COREY DAVIS (5100) – Love this guy if you don’t have much money left but he also has a very low floor. Over his last 5 games he has put up 0, 10, 12, 19 and 30 DKPs giving you a floor of ZERO and a high of 6x value. He can go anywhere from 3-10 targets in a game. Perfect for taking a stab in a large field GPP.


TEE HIGGINS (4600) – Need to a lower priced guy to shove into your lineup? Why not Tee Higgins. He is coming off a 5 catch, 44 yard game with a TD from a bad QB. Someone has to catch those ducks bring thrown.


HONORABLE MENTIONS: MIMS & PERRIMAN

TIGHT ENDS:


EVAN ENGRAM (4900) – Engram for GPP. He has GPP upside but he just hasn’t been able to explode yet. He has 9, 3, 10 and 10 targets in his last 4 games and 3 of those 4 he was over 12 DKPs. He is one of the most targeted TEs on the field right now and coming off a 129 yard performance. Hopefully they keep feeding him and he can get into the end zone!


HUNTER HENRY (4800) – Here you are paying for a consistent floor. He has 14, 15 and 13 DKP in his last 3 giving you around 3x. No big ceiling but not floor of 0. He will take his 6-10 targets and put up a handful of yards. Good for cash.


DALLAS GOEDERT (4300) – Ertz was doing virtually nothing and Goedert was still getting targets with Ertz on the field so hoping his ownership drops with people seeing Ertz back into the lineup. Goedert has 20.5 and 18.7 DKP the last two weeks and across those two games he has 16 targets and two scores. Cheap for that upside he provides!


ROBERT TONYAN (3700) – Picking it back up over the last two weeks with 15 and 17 DKP points and 5 catches in each game with a score. Price is too cheap in this offense.


PUNTS: JORDAN AKINS (2900) – Right now his ceiling has been around 10-15 DKP and a floor of 0-3 DKP. With Will Fuller now out they were talking about using Akins in the SLOT for several formations. That would be a HUGE boost to his value. Plug him in some lines before his price jumps!


PUNTS: ANTHONY FIRKSER (2500) – Smith is questionable and if he is out then I will lock Firkser into all my lines as this cheap price point. I think it was Week 6 vs. HOU when Jonnu got hurt and Firkser took over for the remainder of the game and he caught 8 balls on 9 targets for 113 yards and a score putting up 28.3 DKP out of nowhere. I use him a lot in tough matchups because he is also a sneaky option of the stud WRs are covered. Keep an eye out!


FADE: DARREN WALLER (6100) – I can’t spend over 6k on a TE that has this much variance. His last 5 games he has 6, 22, 7, 13 and 8 DKPs. When we have stud WRs that are default WR-1s at the same price point I’d rather lock those in than Waller. Save money on your TE spot this week.


Thanks for reading,

Haze