NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Last week we stated if you want to stack the CLE game then Baker + Landry + Corey Davis was our preferred stack and it exploded! Let’s dive into Week 14 and look at some cheap stack and some upside plays that we can build around this week! When discussing the stacks this week I’m going to use the Cowboys defense at 2400 so I can provide some players you can fill into your stack. With any money left over the last thing I do is change around my defense.
STACKING FOR GPPS:
The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.
TEAM STACKS WE LIKE THIS WEEK:
Cheap Stack:
Drew Lock (5100) + Tim Patrick (4200) + Noah Fant (4100)
Drew Lock is a player that won’t kill you but likely won’t win a GPP. The stack is cheap enough to allow the other players in your lineups to be stacked with studs. Lock has put up 13, 12 and 11 points over his last 3 games. That isn’t crushing it but he is sitting around 2.5x value. He also has a 33.2 DKP game in the start before those and that is massive value and would be almost 7x. CAR has the 26th rated passing defense. Tim Patrick is only 4200 and continues to be the most productive WR with Lock under center. He has 20.4 and 19.9 DKP in the last two games with him and while that doesn’t seem like much that is close to 5x value. Fant is the second most productive guy putting up around 10 DKP in both.
Your stack would look like this:
You could also add at least 2 studs like Tyreek Hill + Derick Henry and then still have money left over to get some high upside guys and it would look something like this:
Mid-Price Stack:
Tom Brady (6900) + Chris Godwin (6300) + Mike Evans (6600) & Feel free to run it back with Thielen or Jefferson.
Tampa Bay is tossing at a 64% clip which his crazy for an NFL team. They are attempting almost 40 pass attempts per game on the season (39.6 if you want to be technical) and over the last 3 games they are at 42.7. (Only the Steelers and Chargers have higher attempts per game.) The question becomes does Tom Brady have the GPP winning upside? Yes, I think he does. For his price tag on DK of 6600 we need 3x as a min target and 5x for a high side target so that range is 20 DKP on the low end and 33 DKP for the high end. So the first thing I look for is to see if he has done that recently? At all this year? Has he exceeded this number? Week 10 he had 34.8, Week 7 he had 39.9 and Week 4 36.5 so the answer is YES he has done it multiple times. His low games are around 15 DKP and averages around 20 DKP.
So how does the matchup look? MIN is allowing 261.7 passing yards per game which ranks 26th so that is a plus. How does the Vegas total look? Opened at 52 and down to 51.5. The total is over 50 so they expect points, points and more points! Our custom model has Tampa Bay scoring 29-34 total points. My thoughts on that game is that MIN will struggle to run vs. this stout Tampa “D” that ranks #1 is rush defense and allowing a league low 74.2 rushing yards per game so Cousins will be forced to “air-it-out” to keep up. The last two weeks Godwin and Evans have been eating up all the points. Godwin had 18 and 15 and Evans 20 and 16. They are both mid-priced in the 6K range and putting up around 2x.
Your lineup would start like this and it leaves around 5100 per play left so you have to fill it with mid-range players and value plays but great for cash because I don’t see MIN shutting down the 6th best “O” in the NFL and they are allowing 27.4 PPG.
Mid-Price Stack:
Phillip Rivers (5900) + TY Hilton (5100) + (Taylor or Hines)
Rivers has quietly been throwing it all over the field and he is still priced under 6K on DK. He has 19, 19, 22 and 19 DKP over the last 3 weeks which is a solid 3x return. T.Y. Hilton has finally started to produce putting up 28 and 18.1 DKP over the last two weeks and priced at only 5,100? YES Please! I also like adding one of the RBs to this stack because IND has not had two WRs go off in the same week, it’s always one guy and a RB. See the screen shot below as you can see one of the RBs usually has the big game and the other fizzles out. LV is allowing 257.1 passing yards per game which ranks 24th and the Vegas total has went from 50.5 at open up to 51.5 currently. We like points! WARNING: LV is really good vs. the TE as they rank 4th best at coverage so I would not slide in a Burton/Doyle play in this stack.
The stack would leave over 6,000 per player so you can get some studs in there with some values and have a fun high-upside lineup. I went Jonathan Taylor here because 2 of the last 3 weeks he has been the “better producing RB”. LV is also allowing 4.5 yards per rush and 121.1 rushing yards per game and Taylor is the pounder.
PLAYERS TO FILL IN WITH YOUR STACKS:
WIDE RECEIVERS:
T.Y. Hilton (5100) – As discussed above he has put up 28 and 18.1 DKP the last two weeks and facing a mid to weak pass defense with a Vegas total over 50. He is cheap!
Chris Godwin (6300) – Cheap WR for his production putting up 18 and 15 DKP over the last two weeks. Game total over 50, Buc’s passing at a high clip and he is always involved. Good mid-priced cash play.
Marvin Jones (5800) – If Golladay doesn’t go this week I would consider Marvin Jones in your lineups for GPPs. He has a low floor but also a high ceiling. He is coming off a 28.6 DKP game where he had 12 targets and caught 8 balls for 116 yards and a score. He has 12, 12, 6 and 10 targets in the last 4 games. Swift also plays into their passing game because if he is out they tend to throw more so keep an eye on Swift.
Michael Thomas (7100) – If you want to spend a little more money then I like some Michal Thomas at slightly over 7k. He stated in week 1 priced at a whopping 9000 on DK and now you get almost a 2k discount. 2 of the last 3 weeks he has 22.5 and 22.4 DKP points and 11, 6 and 12 targets over the last 3 weeks. Taysom likes throwing to Thomas and he has twice as many targets as the next person over the last 3 games.
Tyreek Hill (8500) – His price tag is up in that nose bleed tier but this Chiefs offense is amazing to watch. For those of you that are new to following me I live in the KC area and I’m a Chiefs fan. His targets over the last 4 weeks are 11, 16, 15 and 18, Wow! His DKP performances over the last 4 are 15, 60.9, 30 and 36. So that gives you huge upside and he is 1 play away from an 80 yard touchdown. Most people should shy away from him for his price tag and because they see MIA as a stout pass defense. Hill runs 55% of his routes out of the slot and that is where you can attack Miami. Nik Needham covers the slot for MIA 87% of the time and he is the lowest graded CB for MIA and allowing almost a 70% catch rate.
RUNNING BACKS:
Derick Henry (8700) – Let’s start at the high end pricing and work our way down. Henry coming off that dud last week gets to face a JAX team that is allowing 4.4 yards per rush and allowing 136.9 rushing yards per game which ranks 30th in the NFL. Henry is pretty much a lock for 100+ yards and at least one touchdown. The total in this game opened at 53 and still 53 so plenty of points for us. Henry is expensive but has eclipsed 40 DKP twice this year so we do have some upside but really like him for cash games due to the floor.
Jonathan Taylor (5800) – As we stated above he is in another good spot this week. LV is allowing 4.5 yards per rush (22nd) and 121.1 rushing yards per game. LV is also 20th at covering pass catching RBs and we saw a big screen from Taylor last week. I like IND to win this game and Taylor will be pounding the clock in the second half. Price is fair.
David Montgomery (6500) – Da Bears are driving me nutty this year but they are a decent team. I was ready to throw Montgomery away earlier this year due to his lack of productivity but while reading the sheet and writing an article I noticed that he had a tough stretch of games. In weeks 4-8 he faced some tough run defenses. He went up against Indy, Tampa Bay, Panthers (weak), Rams and Saints. In those games he always was over 10 DKP but never eclipsed 20. Now he gets a break in the schedule and faced the Packers in Week 12 and put up 28.3 DKP and then the Lions last week and put up 27.1 DKP. He took a 1K price hike from 5500 to 6500 but even at 6.5k he is pushing 4x-5x value over the last two games and now he gets the HOUSTON TEXANS! They are allowing 4.9 yards per rush which ranks 31st and they are allowing 150.9 rushing yards per game which ranks 31st. I’m using him for cash this week.
Miles Gaskin (5600) – In our Facebook chat group everyone was talking about Gaskin but I looked right past it and didn’t even consider him. He was balling out last week and had 23 touches! Now that was only good for 15.1 DKP but that is still 3x. He had 21 carries for 90 yards and caught 2 balls for another 50 yards. If he could of got into he endzone and eclipsed the 100 yard mark that is another 10 DKP putting him up 25 and then he is pushing 5x. Now MIA is facing my Kansas City Chiefs and they are decent in pass defense that ranks 13th but they are 30th in rush defense AND they are allowing 4.8 rushing yards per attempt! So if he has another 20 carries x 4.8 yards he is pushing the 100+ mark and he is the more likely candidate to score in the red zone. In the games Gaskin has played he has 21, 18, 18 and 16 carries. HE IS THE WORKHORSE! KC allowing 132.4 rushing yards per game which ranks 27th and they need to keep KC of the field!
J.D. McKissic (4900) – He is a cheap punt play as Antonio Gibson is nursing what appears to be a pretty bad toe injury and is unlikely to play this week. McKissic is great for sites like DK where we get the point per reception. 3 of the last 5 games he has massive target upside. He has 10, 2, 4, 15 and 15 targets. He wasn’t needed vs. DAL as they won 41-16 so only had 2 targets and they beat CIN 20-9 and he wasn’t really utilized but the other games he is in the 10-15 average target range. Last week he caught 10 balls for 70 yards and put up 18 DKP at only 4500. Now he may be the “main guy” for 400 more? They should NEED HIM this week facing a 49’ers team that is likely to win and be in the lead for most of the game. San Fran is solid against the run with the 8th best rush defense but they are 17th vs. pass catching RBs. TARGETS, TARGETS, TARGETS!!!
TIGHT ENDS:
Robert Tonyan (4200) – Cheap spot in a high powered offense and he has put up 14, 18 and 15 DKP over the last 3 and has 5 targets in each of those games. He is a part of this offense.
Hunter Henry (4400) – Last week they got crushed 45-0 by the Pats and he only had 2 targets. Prior to last week he had 10, 7 and 6 targets while putting up 14, 15 and 13 DKPs and still priced in the low 4K range. He was at 4800 the last two weeks and after last week he took a price drop to 4.4K. This week he is playing at HOME and facing the Falcons who are 30th in TE coverage.
Dalton Schultz (3500) – If you want to get a little cheaper as I usually like to save money on the TE spot then Shultz is in play. He has 4-7 targets per week and puts up 8-14 DKPs giving you a solid 3x. He won’t win a GPP by himself like Waller last week but he won’t kill you either. Dallas is always playing catch up and they can’t run so Schultz has safe targets.
Thanks for reading and good luck,
Haze