NFL DFS Picks Week 15 from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
We are back with our Week 15 breakdown and plays. I hope everyone is having a fun season for NFL and I hope that you have enjoyed our articles because we have fun writing them and put a lot of time into them!
GAME BREAKDOWN: I’m going to hit on some of the better games to target and I’ll cap the Vegas spread, line movements and then hit on some plays for each game.
TAMPA BAY 29 VS. DETROIT 22
VEGAS LINE: Line opened at TB -4 and now -3.5 with the total dropping from 47.5 down to 46. 77% of the bets are on the Lions +3.5 and 82% of the tickets are on the over.
Sports Bettor Algo & Comments: DET -2.5, TB had a monster game that has skewed their stats all year. My lean here would be the over 46 as we have it at 51 points.
FANTASY PLAYS:
Jameis Winston (6900) + Chris Godwin (7700) or Breshad Perriman (4500)
Tampa Bay is 3rd in points per game at 29.1 and they are 2nd in passing yards per game at 298 and facing the 25th DVOA pass defense that is giving up the 23rd most fantasy points to the WR position at 30.2. No Mike Evans means Godwin will get all the default targets in a tougher CB/WR matchup. If you don’t like Godwin or think the CB will shut him down then pivot off to Perriman who should be low owned.
David Blough (5200) + Kenny Golladay (7200)
Tampa Bay has the #1 rush defense (DVOA) and the 19th rated pass defense. DET can’t run anyway so no big games coming from a DET RB this week. Look at Golladay with no Marvin Jones. TB is giving up the 32nd most fantasy points to the WR position at 39.1.
Both teams are also allowing the 31st and 24th most points on defense. With a game we have projected at the over this makes for a good game to stack up!
PHILLY 23 VS. WASHINGTON 16
VEGAS LINE: Line opened at PHI -6 and now -5. Total opened at 40.5 and now down to 39. 76% of the tickets are on PHI and 63% on the under.
Sports Bettor Algo & Comments: PHI -4.5, We have Philly winning this game by 7 points but it does not factor in all the WR injuries to Philly. I’d still lean Philly in this spot as WAS is terrible but slowly getting better.
FANTASY PLAYS:
ZACH ERTZ (6000) – Who else is there? Everyone is hurt. WAS ranks 31st DVOA vs. the TE and give up the 23rd most points to the TE.
GREG WARD (3000) – Min priced punt and should start and see enough targets to hit value.
MILES SANDERS (5900), BOSTON SCOTT (3000) – WAS is 23rd in fantasy points to the RB position and both should be in play.
WAS has a tough matchup but with Guice on IR Adrian Peterson (4400) and Chris Thompson (3900) should get plenty of work.
NEW ENGLAND 28 VS. CINCY 14
VEGAS LINE: Line opend at -10.5 and now -10, total opened at 39.5 and now 41.5. We have 83% of the tickets on NE and 82% on the under.
Sports Bettor Algo & Comments: NE -14, I’d still lean NE here at -10 facing Cincy but with the playoffs getting closer they may rest starters in the 2nd half once they have the game in hand so be careful.
FANTASY PLAYS:
JAMES WHITE (5400) – CIN is 29th vs. pass catching RBs and give up the 26th most points to the RB position.
JULIAN EDELMAN (7100) – Massive targets each week and CIN is 32nd vs. covering the WR-1.
I don’t care for anyone from Cincy as Mixon is priced up to 6.1k and NE is 1st in DVOA pass defense, 1st in fantasy points allowed to QB, RB and WR and 8th vs. TE. They are also 2nd vs. WR-1 and 1st vs. WR-2. Pass.
TENNEESEE 26 VS. HOUSTON 24
VEGAS LINE: Line opened at TEN -1.5 and now -3 while the total opened at 47.5 and has shot up to 50.5. 56% of the tickets are on TEN and 95% on the over.
Sports Bettor Algo & Comments: TEN -6.5, Wow we see value here from the Vegas spread of -3 to the sports bettor algo of -6.5 which is a good indicator of why it opened at -1.5 and went to -3. Lean here is TEN -3 and the over 50.5.
FANTASY PLAYS:
RYAN TANNEHILL (6500) – No secret anymore he is having a terrific run in TEN with at least 2 TDs every week since week 7 when he took off. His last 5 games have been 32, 15, 33, 20 and 28 DKP. Now he faces the 27th rated pass defense DVOA and they are allowing 266 passing yards per game (also 27th).
DERRICK HENRY (8500) – HOU is 27th in fantasy points to the RB position and Henry has put up 27, 27, 32, 36 and 25 DKP in his last 5 contest. He is Q this week but they are just limiting his reps and Vrabel said he WILL START THIS WEEK so don’t worry!
A.J. BROWN (6000) – I’m always on edge when looking at WRs who are catching 3-4 balls for 100+ yards because they are boom bust. So for GPP only Brown is a viable stack with Tannehill this week. He has 37, 7, 26 and 3 DKP in his last 4.
DESHAUN WATSON (6800) – Facing TEN and the 23rd rated pass defense DVOA they are also allowing 260 pass yards per game. Did you think at the beginning of the year Watson and Tannehill would ever be priced in the same tier? He has 30, 29 and 20 DKP in his last 3. If he can’t get it done through the air he will get it done with his legs. Watson is always in the player pool with this upside!
SEATTLE 26 VS. CAROLINA 24
VEGAS LINE: Line opened at SEA -4.5 and now -6.5 and the total has went from 48.5 to 49. We have 94% of the tickets on Seattle and 90% on the over.
Sports Bettor Algo & Comments: SEA -4.5, which is exactly where it opened and betting public has pushed it up to -6.5.
FANTASY PLAYS:
CHRIS CARSON (7500) – CAR is dead last in fantasy points allowed to the RB position. They are also allowing a whopping 139 rushing yards per game (29th) AND Penny is done!
D.J. MOORE (6600) – SEA has the 15th rated pass defense DVOA and allowing a whopping 271.2 passing yards per game (29th). They are 11th vs. WR-1s but my favorite target here in DJ Moore. He had a rough game last week but with only 6 targets and went 4-81 with 0 TD but prior to that he had the following: TARGETS 12, 9, 15, 11, 10, 9 and 10. YARDS: 75, 126, 95, 120 AND 101. Solid floor with a big ceiling and priced just right for us this week!
KANSAS CITY 27 VS. DENVER 20
VEGAS LINE: Line opened at KC -13 and now down to -9.5 while the total went from 46.5 down to 45.
Sports Bettor Algo & Comments: KC -6.5, you can see a large variance from the open to the sports betting algo line which has caused it to come down. This is a divisional game and is usually played close.
FANTASY PLAYS:
PATRICK MAHOMES (7100) + TYREEK HILL (7500) – If I’m doing any kind of stack in this game for the KC side I’m going with these two. Hill has speed that is unguardable. DEN is 27th vs. WR-1 coverage but still hold the solid 12th rated DVOA pass defense and 15th rated rush defense.
DREW LOCK (5700), COURTLAND SUTTON (5900), TIM PATRICK (3500), NOAH FANT (4100) – KC surprisingly has the 6th rated pass defense DVOA and they are 1st vs. WR-1 in coverage but then they fall to 15th vs. WR-2 and 27th to other WRs. Lock appears to be a solid QB of the future for the Broncos. The hole for KC is their rush defense where they are 30th DVOA. However, these games usually end up scoring around 50 points so anyone of these pass catchers is viable to play. Over the last 3 games when these teams met there has been an average score of KC 29 and DEN 17.33 while DEN averages 139.7 rushing yards facing KC and KC has pass yardage average of 262 over 194 for Denver. So looking at this DEN RBs are also viable plays and it just depends who is going to get the goal line carry that is going to have the most value.
OTHER PLAYERS TO CONSIDER THAT DIDN’T MAKE THE GAME BY GAME WRITEUP:
DeVante Parker (6400) – NYG are 30th vs. WR-1 coverage and giving up the 28th most fantasy points to the WR position at 32.5. He is in the concussion protocol and Q for Sunday so watch for the inactives. Prior to going out last week he had 38, 15 and 24 DKP.
Darius Slayton (4700) – MIA has the 32nd rated pass defense dvoa and they are 31st vs. WR-1, 29th vs. WR-2 and 17th vs. other WRs. With Eli Manning last week he caught 5 of 8 targets for 154 yards and two TDs.
Josh Jacobs (7000) or DeAndre Washington (4700) if Jacobs inactive – Jacobs looks like he is going to play this week and he gets to face the team giving up the 29th most fantasy points to the RB position at 26.3 and the 31st rated rush defense DVOA. The team is also 26th vs. pass catching RBs.
Kareem Hunt (6300) – Chubb is priced all the way up to 7900 but Hunt is still affordable. ARI is 13th in rush defense DVOA but they are 28th in pass catching RBs and Hunt is one of the best pass catching RBs in the league. ARI is also giving up the 22nd most fantasy points to the RB position. Hunt also has double digit fantasy points EVERY WEEK he has played putting up 15, 28, 13, 12 and 14.
Jarvis Landry (6700) – Facing ARI they are the 29th rated pass defense DVOA and 27th in fantasy points to the WR position. Landry has 7+ targets each week for the last 7 weeks and has 10+ targets in 5 of those. He has put up lows of 11.5 DKP up to as high as 39.8 DK.
Kenyan Drake (5000) – Ok if you have read this far into the article you get a super sleeper this week! Drake hasn’t been lighting it up recently so I think he will be lower owned and great for GPPs but look at this schedule. PIT, LAR, SF, TB, SF and BUF. My god that schedule is horrible for RBs! He has taken over the RB1 spot for the Cardinals and has double digit carries each week with at least 3+ targets in each game for the last 5 games. Now he gets a softer rush defense in CLE who is 25th DVOA and allowing a whopping 120.5 rushing yards per game (24th). 100 yards on the ground, plus a TD and we will give him 3 catches for 20 yards and that is around 22-25 DKP for 4x to 5x value!
SAN FRAN PLAYERS – We have them scoring 29.6 DKP and Vegas has them at 29.25 so we have to find some exposure this week as they are facing ATL who is giving up 26.4 points per game (26th). The question is does San Fran pass or run? They usually find one that is working and then they continue with it for the entire game. So in this case Emmanuel Sanders (6600) or Raheem Mostert (5200) / Matt Breida (4100) will have that monster game. San Fran is 2nd in rushing yards per game at 149.1 and they are 13th in passing yards per game at 239.5.
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze