NFL Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
YouTube Version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrEx3d5c3Cw
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I use the NFL Cheatsheet for the Sports Betting picks in this article. You will notice we have 2 new things for 2021 and that is the "Bobby Index" which is a power ranking factor for each team converted into a projected line so that we have something to compare to the Vegas line. This will usually move in the directly of the Index line. We also have the custom "Cheat Line and Cheat Score" for 2021. This is really similar to the prior method we used based on yardages and efficiencies but has a few new factors applied in. With only one week of data it spit out some really fun skewed crazy lines so I toned it down with a small factor to bring it back to reality. I'll open in up in the next week or two when we get some averages built up!
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GAME SELECTION #1
SAINTS (-3) OVER CAROLINA
Line opened at pick'em and now it's out to Saints -3. Saints exploded last week with Winston and his 5 TDs! He only attempted 20 passes completing 14 of them for 5 TDs with a QBR of 130.8. That defense kept the Packers in check and made them look miserable throughout the entire game. You can see our new "Bobby Index" rating that projects this game at -8. The "Cheat Line" needs a little more data but I have it on the sheet with a skew factor to tone it down so it's not so extreme. The first question people are going to ask is the "Cheat Line" and why does it have CAR -1. CAR played terrible last week against a bad NY Jets team and so their stats are skewed racking them up vs. a weaker opponent so disregard the Cheatline for this game and lock in the Saints!
Below we have a screen shot of some general ranks after Week 1. I don't put much weight into the CAR stats since they were playing the struggling Jets but they still ranked 31st against the WR-1 giving Corey Davis two TDs late in the game. They also allowed a 100% red zone TD rate. Saints played a decent Packer team that was off their game but still managed a 100% red zone TD percentage and only allowed 2.9 yards per carry to a stud back field of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
GAME SELECTION #2
LA RAMS (-3.5) OVER INDY
Bobby Index has this game at Rams -7 so laying -3.5 is a value play I'm jumping on. The Cheat Line even has Rams at -5.5 here and I don't mind it because both teams played decent opponents last week and were around their average projected yards and stats so no heavy skew here.
I love me some Jonathan Taylor and the Indy "O" but not against this Rams team! Indy last week gave up 4 TDs in the air to Russell Wilson and over 100 rushing yards. I don't think the Rams will have trouble scoring here with all their weapons. Stafford was extremely efficient in his Rams debut going 20 of 26 for 321 and 3 TDs only sacked once. Henderson had a solid 16 rushes for 70 yards for 4.4 ypc to balance out the running game. The Rams gave up some yards on the ground last week but held Dalton to 206 passing yards and 0 TDs with 3 sacks and a pick. I worry about the passing targets for Indy as Jonathan Taylor and Hines led the team last week with 7 and 8 targets followed by Pascal (5 targets) and then Pittman (4 targets).
GAME SELECTION #3
Buffalo (-3.5) over Miami
Index line has this game much closer at Buffalo -1 but the Cheat Line has it at -6.5 so it's kind of a mixed bag but here are my thoughts. Buffalo played arguably one of the best defenses in the NFL last week in the Steelers and lost a nail biter. Buffalo still passed 68% of the plays and held them to a 10th best 3.6 yards per carry on the ground. Josh Allen & Stefon Diggs come back strong this week! Miami is allowing the 19th most yards per carry at 4.2 and 28th at the WR-1. Miami was also 29th in QB pressure after one week so if you give Josh Allen time he will get the points on the board. Rolling B-U-F-F-A-L-O Baby!
GAME SELECTION #4
San Francisco / Philly OVER 50
Line opened at 46.5 and sky rocketed over to the 50 mark which caught my attention. Our Cheat Model which is a little "toned down" after last week still has this game projected around a total of 56.0 and judging by the line movement it's headed in that direction. 87% of the early money is also on the over. These two teams put up the 5th and 6th most offensive yards last week with 442 and 434 and to give you a comparison league average through the entire season last year was 358 yards. Both teams allowed 4.8 yards per carry which is bottom 8 in the NFL and both teams finished with 100% red zone TD percentage. Both teams also have a YPP (yard per point) production well better than league average. If things continue this could be a fun game to watch!
GAME SELECTION #5
Dallas / Chargers OVER 55
I love the top 4 games and if you made me pick a game #5 this is where I would be looking. Line opened at 50 and jumped to 55 with 99% of the money hitting the over. Our Cheat Line has this around 53.5 so we were over the 50 but now it's at 55 so that slid it down to game selection #5 for me. Why I like the over? Teams put up 451 and 424 offensive yards last week which ranks 3rd and 9th. Dallas also allowed 431 which is 26th most. Passing equals high scores because the clock stops on incomplete passes and a catch is a chunk of yards and these teams are passing at a 77% and 63% clip which is unreal right now. Neither team can apply QB pressure as LAC ranks 23rd and DAL ranks 32nd so both QBs should have time to throw. Don't mind a straight bet but prefer a tease down to something like Cowboys +9.5 with over 48.5 on a 6.5 point teaser.
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