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NFL Week 4 Betting Picks!


NFL Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

NFL custom model did some smashing last week with a couple dog outright winners! We had CAR +6.5 winning 22-17 in our model and they actually ended up winning 21-16! We had the Seattle total hitting 65.1 points cruising over the total and they hit 69 for an easy over. We had the Packers +3.5 winning outright vs. the Saints with a final score of 36-29 and they actually did win the game with a score of 37-30! Arizona game we hd at 48.4 total points going under the 54.5 total and they scored 49 for a under win. Atlanta total we had at 55.7 and they actually scored 56. We also had the CIN/PHI game staying tight with a 22-21 final and they tied at 23-23. We don’t hit all the games but sometimes the custom algo model in the cheatsheet is scary close to the final!

BREAKDOWN OF GAMES:


COLTS 27 (-3) OVER BEARS 20

We have the COLTS taking this game by 7 points easily covering the -2.5 early spread. Vegas opened at pick and now Colts -2.5. Only 41% of the money is on the Colts. Indy sits with the 12th best “O” and 3rd best “D” facing the the Bears who have the 27th ranked “O” and 5th “D”. IND is 4th best at covering the WR-1 and INDY only giving up 93.3 rushing yards per game which ranks 4th in the NFL. Bears are throwing 59% of plays and INDY holds the #1 Pass “D”. Indy too much!


SAINTS 31 (-4) OVER LIONS 23

Saints hold the 3rd best “O” and 7th best “D” facing the Lions who have an average “O” at 15th and the 24th rated “D”. Lions are 25th vs. short passes and this is what Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas (Q) will eat all day. DET is allowing 29th in rushing “D” and allowing 172.3 rushing yards per game (30th). Saints only allowing 100 rushing yards per game (6th best) and 252 passing yards per game (20th). Lay the points.


CIN / JAX OVER THE TOTAL

Line opened at 45.5 and moved to 49. We have this right at 49 points but there are some other indicators that jump out at me. JAX is passing 64% of the time and CIN is passing 69% of the time. Passing equals chunk yards or an incomplete stops the clock and that equals more plays. CIN is averaging 75 plays per game (2nd most). If CIN can protect Joe Burrow then A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd should have big days in the air as JAX has the 32nd rated pass “D”. JAX should be able to run with the 3rd best rush offense and CIN is allowing 181.7 rushing yards per game (31st) so if they get in the red zone they should be able to pound Robinson into the end zone.


MIAMI / SEATTLE OVER THE TOTAL 54.5

Line is 54.5 and our model has this scoring 66.1 points cruising to the over. SEA is on fire this year averaging 289.7 passing yards per game (5th) and scoring 37 PPG (2nd) through the first 3 weeks. MIA has the 31st rated “D” and they are 31st in rush “D” and 25th in pass “D”. We know SEA will score 30-35 points in this game so we need MIA to put up some points. MIA has the 12th best passing “O” which is better than I expected under Ryan Fitzpatrick and they are facing SEA and their 29th rated pass “D”. SEA is dead last vs. the deep ball, 24th vs. WR-1 and 25th vs. WR-2 and WR-3. Fitz should throw all over them to try and keep them in this game. SEA is allowing 430 passing yards per game (last in NFL) and MIA is allowing 265.7 (25th).


BILLS (-3) OVER LAS VEGAS RAIDERS & OVER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS

This game sets up for a good parlay with Bills -3 and over 51.5 points. Line opened at 49.5 and is slowly climbing up. Neither team can run ranking 28th and 27th in rushing “O” and both teams can air it out ranking 2nd (Bills) and 8th (Raiders) in passing “O”. These teams rank 7th and 8th in first downs per game making them efficiency offenses. Buffalo is 3rd in PPG at 31, 4th in total yards per game at 434 and 2nd in passing yards per game at 330.3. LV is also giving up 163.7 rushing yards per game on the ground (28th) so the Bills can make this whatever they want and Raiders will need to air it out to stay in this game.

SPECIALTY TEASER – PICK 3 OF THESE 4:

SAINTS -4 teased to +6 – DET is having a rough year and they have the 29th rated rush defense and they are 25th at defending the short pass. Even if by some miracle the DET defense that is allowing 172.3 rushing yards per game (30th) find a way to stop Alvin Kamara and Lat Murray I can’t see them taking the Saints down by a large margin. I love the -4 with the Saints but if they pull some crazy FG win at the end of the game and DET takes this game by 3 or 4 I certainly don’t see them covering the Saints by 6 or more.

RAVENS -13.5 teased to -3.5 – You think Lamar Jackson is on fire right now after getting spanked by the Chiefs in primetime? I think I heard the announcers say Lamar was 21-1 against all teams that are not the Kansas City Chiefs. Look for a big game from Baltimore to get back on track and show their dominance. WAS in hardly the team that is going to hang with the #7 offense in the NFL as they rank 32nd (dead last) in the NFL. That is the 25th rushing “O” and 31st passing “O” facing the 2nd best rushing defense. Lamar & company roll this one.

RAMS -12.5 teased to -2.5 – This might be my least favorite of the 4 games listed here and that is mainly due to the Rams 25th rated rush defense and their D-Line. However, the NYG are struggling right now and injuries have piled up. They are only averaging 12.7 PPG (31st) and 272 total yards per game (31st). They average 56.7 rush yards per game (dead last in the NFL) and 26th in passing yards per game. I can’t imagine them staying in this game but even if they do I can’t see them winning the game so Rams laying -2.5 looks good teased down. Rams are sitting with the 2nd best rushing offense and 4th best passing offense and facing the 30th rated passing defense.

SEATTLE OVER 54.5 teased to 44.5 – Seattle has no defense and they are a powerhouse on offense. Even if this game doesn’t hit the 54.5 total points the 44.5 should be a cake walk. This is a game that you might hit over 44.5 before the end of the 3rd quarter. MIA is averaging 23.3 PPG and DAL 37 PPG. Our custom model has this one hitting 66.1 points. Always, have an easy total in your teaser.

Thanks for reading,

Haze

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