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NFL Week 5 Breakdown of Plays!


NFL Week 5 Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS & NOTES:

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PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR YOUR LINEUPS:

DAVID JOHNSON (7500):

ALGO SCORE/RANK: 86.9 - #4 Running Back

VEGAS TOTAL: 47.5

FANTASY PPG: 18.6

DEFENSIVE GRADE: Cincy is 21st rush defense and 31st pass defense. They are allowing the most FP to running backs at 39.1 per game.

GAME SCRIPT: ARI opened +4 down to +3 so with the favorable game script DJ is a near lock for me this week.

BREAKDOWN NOTES: Christian Kirk not likely to play this week which will be DJ even more involved in the passing game.


DALVIN COOK (8400):

ALGO SCORE/RANK: 90.8 - #3 Running Back

VEGAS TOTAL: 44.0

FANTASY PPG: 26.6

DEFENSIVE GRADE: NYG are 13th vs. RBs in terms of FPs. However they rank 27th vs pass catching RBs out of the backfield.

GAME SCRIPT: I would also call this a favorable game script since Minny ranks as the 4th best rushing offense and 27th in passing. They are rushing for 155.2 yards per game on the ground and don’t look at this changing that anytime soon.

BREAKDOWN NOTES: Cook has 8 and 5 targets across his last two games combing for 10 receipts for 68 yards so he is also doing work in the passing game.


OTHER RUNNING BACK QUICK NOTES:

DAVID MONTGOMERY – He is someone that is quietly getting a ton for work and it is increasing. After only 6 carries in Week 1 he has rushed 18, 13 and 21 times over the last 3 weeks and also had 5, 3 and 3 targets. That is around 20 touches a game (17 rushes and 3 targets). I expect him to have a breakdown game here soon. Priced at only $5,200 on DK facing Oakland he is worth a flier. CHI is -6 so they could be running out the clock in the 4th Q and DM could be the guy they are leaning on.


WIDE RECEIVER MATCHUPS:

THIELAND / DIGGS – NYG have a horrible secondary with DeAndre Baker and Janoris Jenkins. Mike Evans roasted Jenkins two weeks ago for a record week and last week I was looking at Keenum/McClaurin but McClaurin was scratched and then Keenum was benched for Haskins who completed only 52% of his passes and killed the entire WAS offense. Diggs will see Jenkins the majority of the time. Both could have success but will Minny need to throw at all in this game???


JULIO JONES – Love this guy! I have a large life sized fat head of Julio in my man-cave so I am always watching his stock. This week he should see a large majority of his routes covered by Lonnie Johnson Jr. who is a horrible cover corner. He is giving up a 67% catch rate. He lines up on the same size as Julio almost 70% of snaps.


LARRY FITZGERALD – No Christian Kirk this week and ARI is always down so I expect David Johnson and Fitz to eat up the majority of the passing down work with a little K. Johnson sprinkled in as a flier. Fitz gets a dream matching running 94% of his routes out of the slot the Cincy slot cover corner is B.W. Webb who grades out 13 points lower than Fitz per PFF. Fitz is 4” taller and 28 lbs heavier and Fitz also supports a very high catch rate at 67% which is great for PPR leagues.


MICHAEL THOMAS – He is someone else that is coming up as a good matchup but looking closely at the numbers I would be a little careful. He plays 45% on the left, 31% in the slot and 24% on the right and they are matching him up with the primary right cover corner who plays there 94% of the time. Thomas will always get a ton of targets but I don’t think he will run a large majority of his routes vs. Hargraves so I’m not going to dive into those stats any further.


MIKE EVANS / GODWIN – Wow! Buc’s ripped the Rams a new one last week and I was wrong about that. Godwin exploded! This week Marshon Lattimore should shadow cover Mike Evans giving Godwin the edge. I would say that Mike Evans is 5” taller than Lattimore and giving up almost a 70% catch rate so this will be interesting see!


OTHER NOTES:

The lowest graded corner at PFF is Tre Herndom for JAC and D.J. Moore should see a lot of routes against him with Curtis Samuel sprinkling some in.


TOP 3 PLAYER ALGO RANKS PER POSITION:

QUARTER BACKS:

1. Patrick Mahomes – Playing at home in prime time, no brainer here!

2. Lamar Jackson – His rushing ability gives him a high floor any given week.

3. Dak Prescott – Struggled last week and not an easy matchup but he has put up some big games.

RUNNING BACKS:

1. Christian Mccaffrey – Volume and fantasy points will always have him in the top spot.

2. Austin Ekeler – This doesn’t factor in Gordon coming back, will be curious to see the touches and how they are split out. I still think Ekeler has a good week this week.

3. Dalvin Cook – see write up above.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

1. Keenan Allen – His monster game and target share is going to hold the top algo spot for a while. If Lac are down he can have a monster if they blowout DEN then he will likely sit as his 2x floor.

2. Julio Jones – Love him! See write up above.

3. Michael Thomas

4. Sammy Watkins – great pairing with Mahomes.

5. E. Sanders / Mike Evans / Godwin all sit around 5-8.

TIGHT ENDS:

1. Travis Kelce – Playing at home in a prime spot with a 57 over/under. IND is giving up 18.1 fantasy points to the TE position (30th).

2. Evan Engram – His volume in the passing game is hard to pass up on. MIN is 22nd vs. TE.

3. Mark Andrews – Ankle getting better so his volume should pick up!


OTHER TIGHT END NOTES:

Sneaky lower owned plays this week could be Tyler Eifert (3300) going up against ARI who is dead last vs. TEs giving up 27.8 fantasy points to the position. Jared Cook vs. Tampa Bay as they are 31st vs. the TE. Dawson Knox (3100) vs. Tenn is 27th vs. TE. If Jack Doyle is out from that massive hit then look at Ebron vs. KC who is 29th. I know all of those are not in the main slate but wanted to give you some additional options across the board.


STACKS TO CONSIDER FOR GPP AND CASH GAMES:

CARDINALS: KYLER MURRAY / DAVID JOHNSON / LARRY FITZ: This game has a solid total of 47.5 in a week where there is no 50+ on the main slate. No team total is projected over 30 so I think people will be all over the map in GPPs this week. I like the WR/CB matchup for Fitz, DJ gets a ton of work in the passing game and Murray can break off 350 and 4 TDs at any time. Stack is priced fair and gives you plenty of wiggle room for other positions.


PACKERS: AARON RODGERS/ MVS / JIMMY GRAHAM – Last I heard was that Adam Schefter tweeted Adams was unlikely to play this week due to his toe. If that is the case then I’d like to a bump in usage for MVS, Graham, Allison and Aaron Rodgers. They are +3.5 vs. Dallas with a solid total of 47.0.


BUCS: WINSTON / GODWIN + KAMARA OR MICHAEL THOMAS – This game is either going to be a boring defensive battle with several turnovers or a shootout. I wouldn’t stack one side naked but I’d game stack and hope for the best. Vegas total is 47 and Saints opened at -6.5 and is now down to -3.5. Bucs taking some heavy public money after that Rams beatdown. I always like to stack the dog since they should likely be throwing more and if the Saints are trying to kill clock Kamara is the perfect person to run it back because he also gets a ton of work in the passing game.


LINEUP BUILDING PROCESS using CORE 4 ALGO:

So I recommend locking in the top 4 CORE ALGO players from the NFL CheatSheet and then running 10 lineups. Week 3 had one of those 10 lineups his 232 Dk points. Last week Keenan Allen let us down so I ended up at a -10% loss on the Core 4 10 lineups I ran. This week if you look at the Core 4 it is going to give you: Mahomes but he is not on the main slate so we look down to Lamar Jackson, TE is going to give you Engram or Andrews, RBs are Ekeler / CMC / Dalvin Cook and with the unknown of Melvin Gordon’s return I’m likely going down to #3 Algo RB Dalvin Cook for a safe floor, WRs we get Keenan Allen, Julio, Michael Thomas, Mike Evans and Godwin. I’ll likely look past Keenan as I think they can easily win that game as almost a touchdown fav and go with Julio as my stud. So for right now I’m looking at: Lamar Jackson – Dalvin Cook – Julio Jones – Evan Engram (or move down to a cheaper TE if the lineup building process is struggling).


WR/CB MATCHUP CHART: I’ve followed the PFF WR/CB matchup chart for years. Take it as part of your research and not the only thing. I see people basing all their lineup decisions off this chart that is floating around. You have to understand that if a player is at a certain position 50% of the snaps and the CB is there 50% that doesn’t mean that he will always line up against that CB. That CB may only cover him 20-25% of the time. Where you can use the chart for value is looking at someone who plays 80%+ in the same spot matched up against a CB who plays 80%+ on that side of the field or that position. Too many people are putting faith in something that is random.


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