NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
What a fun week to have a Tuesday Night Football game! This delayed everything from our sheet to the article for a day but we are ready to dive into Week 6 action! I finally found a solid format for the NFL breakdown that I’m going to try to stick with each week. I will do my best to post as many screen shots as possible so you can see what I’m referring too. Congrats to our freaking AWESOME PREMIUM CHAT GROUP for finding that Fulgham play last week! I was in there Sunday am and asked for any 3k punts and Kyle tossed out Fulgham and that guy went bonkers!
HOW DO I USE THE SHEET TO COME UP WITH A PLAYER POOL? This is the question that I get asked most often. I am going to go through the different sections and show you the plays that I am coming up with for my player pool.
ALGO PICKS:
These are plays looking at the ALGO model on the sheet. I recommend taking the “highest” player per team and putting into your player pool.
When I refer to “Algo Picks” I’m talking about the main player tab that is sorted by ALGO when the sheet is released. I typically only want to take the top player from each team but if there is something like Julio Jones / Calvin Ridley this is like a 1-A and 1-B so I don’t mind either of them. You have to make sure a WR-3 isn’t climbing the chart due to an inflated DVP game so that is why I typically refer to taking the top player per team. This pops the following players for us to put in the player pool.
D-HOPKINS
ADAM THIELEN
CHASE CLAYPOOL
JULIO JONES / CALVIN RIDLEY
JUSTIN JEFFERSON – I consider him a 1-B to Adam Thielen.
TERRY MCLAURIN
A.J. BROWN
ODELL BECKHAM
DAVID MONTGOMERY
ALEXANDER MATTISON (Will be a popular pick this week!)
You get the idea of how we are looking at the main group of players using the ALGO rating. You can see on the cheatsheet the DVP, FPPG, Team stats, opponent stats so I won’t waste time on those, these are the top players that are jumping out.
WR vs. CB MATCHUP CHART PICKS:
Knowing if a player is in shadow coverage or lining up against a tough corner is key when building DFS lineups. Our matchup chart will break this down for you and you can easily sort by ALGO and get the best plays!
You can see that I added in the ALGO column for everyone so we can quickly get some good plays without digging into all the numbers. This is just a mix of targets per game, fantasy points per game and the advantage vs. CB matchup. The top ALGO players for this week are:
ALLEN ROBINSON – A-Rob slides in there with 11 targets per game and 19-31.3 fantasy points each week for the last 3 and a slight advantage vs. his primary corner.
ADAM THIELEN – Thielen already popped on the main tab and now we see him again! He is at 8.8 targets per game and 29 points for each of the last two weeks with a massive matchup advantage. To dive into this a little further you see Adam lines up and runs 56% of his routes on the right side so we want to look at the left corner for the other team. Yes I know it is confusing the RIGHT WR faces the LEFT CB. This is A.J. Terrell and he is on that side almost 70% of the time. He is allowing a 92% catch rate which is one of the highest in the league.
D-HOPKINS – He also shows up again and you can see the stats on his screen shot.
AMARI COOPER – He also shows up again and you can see the stats on his screen shot.
JAMISON CROWDER – Crowder is cheap and he will also show up again down below!
TARGET MONSTERS:
Targets = Volume = Points, this is where we can find some good potential.
The screen shot above will show you every player with at least 8.0 targets per game so far this year and how they have done each week. The guys that jump out at me are Jeff Smith, Crowder, Allen Robinson, McLaurin, Robby Anderson and A.J. Brown.
MOST TARGETED PLAYERS FROM LAST WEEK:
Allen Robinson (17 targets)
Stefon Diggs (16 targets)
Emmanuel Sanders (14 targets)
Robby Anderson (13 targets)
Adam Thielen (13 targets)
Travis Fulgham (13 targets)
Jeff Smith / Darius Slayton / Chase Claypool (12 targets)
TRENCHES:
Here we are looking to attack some of the weak defensive lines!
32 – LIONS (Jax will have a smash spot if they actually run the ball. The yare passing on 67% of their plays which is unreal!)
31 – MIAMI (NYJ have no running backs after releasing Bell but maybe there is a GPP dart in that backfield that you can use as a punt.)
30 – HOU (Derrick Henry has a SMASH spot!)
29 – MIN (Todd Gurley is in a good spot but they throw a lot so GPP only.)
28 – LA RAMS (San Fran RBs are in a good spot and they run a ton!)
27 – RAIDERS (On bye this week.)
26 – CIN (Hello, Jonathan Taylor! Let’s go!)
DEFENSE VS. POSITION POINTS ALLOWED:
Screen shot below explains everything. You can determine which teams give up the most fantasy points at the position or even per game!
OTHER PLAYS THAT WE DID NOT COVER:
I spend a lot of time listening to Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, reading different columns and blogs and occasionally there are a few guys that people make really good points on and I put them in my player pool. I always want to know who everyone is “touting” up so I can get an idea of the players that are going to be higher owned.
JEFF SMITH – This guy had 12 and 10 targets the last two weeks. With no Bell now you have Crowder and Jeff Smith and one of them will have a big game this week!
TIM PATRICK – It feels like forever ago but don’t forget his prime time 6 grab – 113 yard – 1 TD line for 26.3 DK points. Sitting at a low 4500 price tag on DK he will be in my pool.
D.J. CHARK – This could be an under owned GPP play this week. Last week he was shadowed and didn’t get anything done so everyone thinks Shenault or however you spell his name has eclipsed him on the depth chart. Chark is still the #1 and the team is throwing 67% of the time. I will have some DJ Chark dat doo dat doo!
Thank you for taking the time to read my article. You can use several sources to come up with your player pool and find your players. I look at targets, air yards, vegas totals, run/pass % by the teams, DVP points allowed, ranks vs. WR-1, WR-2, TE, etc. There are several factors. Keep a sheet on your smart phone and when you are watching that Thursday night or Sunday night game and you see someone pop then make a note. I do this for season long waivers and for DFS plays and guys I want to dig into.
Thanks for reading,
Haze