NFL Week 8 Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
RECAP:
We launched our NFL Algo Best Bets in Week 5 and we are currently at 9-3 on the season and we were 0.5 points from a 10-2 run! All of our projected lines and projected algo scores are located on our NFL CheatSheet. This week is rough, I think it’s going to be a big Vegas week and hard to bet but I’ll give you what I have right now.
BEST BETS: < Record 9-3 >
New England (-10.5) over Cleveland – NE is an ATM this year. We have this projected line could be -21 or higher based on the statistical numbers. We have the projected final score with NE winning 31-16 easily covering the -10.5. Vegas line opened at NE -11.5 and has been bet down to -10.5 so money coming in on Cleveland. 95% of the bets on the ML are on NE and 62% of the bets on NE are on the spread. Patriots have the 8th best rushing defense, #1 passing defense and they are playing at home. Gilmore will shadow OBJ, Jonathan Jones will shadow Landry and McCourty will shadow Callaway. This is the best set of CBs in the league right now and PFF has this as -18%, -35% and -40% respectively for WR/CB matchups. Want more? NE is averaging 32 PPG vs. 20 for CLE, defensively NE is allowing 6.9 PPG while CLE 25.7. CLE is also allowing 154 rushing yards per game (30th) so NE will eat clock after they get a two touchdown lead and Baker (even though I love his commercials) isn’t good enough to mount a comeback vs. this defense on the road. Lay the points or put it into a money line parlay!
Seattle (OFF) over Atlanta – This line opened at -4 but then went off the board because we don’t know if Matty Ice is going to play. I like Seattle but hard to recommend without a line. If the line is in the -4 to -5 I’m going to play this game, if Matty Ice is OUT then I’ll take a much higher line and I’m afraid this could get stupid at -7 to -9. We have Seattle winning this game 26-20 covering the opening line of -4 but with Matt Ryan Q that changes things. Right now ATL can’t play any defense and they are giving up 31.9 PPG (31st) and 387 yards per game (27th). They are also 31st in DVOA pass defense and 32nd vs. fantasy points to WRs. We have this projected line as -7 in favor of Seattle. Watch for the line and consider Seattle a play if the line is less than -6 but without Ryan choose if you want to lay 7 or more if Ryan is out because I would be shocked if it isn’t -9.
NFL LEAN PLAYS BASED ON ALGO:
I like to put in the “lean” plays that are showing up on the sheet but not jumping out as huge covers. The reason I put these games in here is if you are on the fence this may sway you one way or the other. The “Best Bets” I’m very strict with and taking solid picks.
NY Jets +7 over JAX – We have Jacksonville winning 20-14 plus this line opened at JAX -4.5 and has been hammered out to -7, so why do we like it? Well there is sharp money on NYJs as 63% of the tickets are on NYJ spread. We have this line right on the money as JAX -7 and that is where it has been bet too. So let’s look at Jacksonville – Jalen Ramsey is GONE, their LB core of Leon Jacobs, Najee Goode and Quincy Williams are ALL DOUBTFUL so they will be relying on two guys signed this week in Payne and Smith plus Harris who was promoted from their practice squad. Darnold isn’t terrible and no one has been able to shred that Patriot defense. I’ll take Sammy D, Le’Veon Bell and Crowder/Anderson plus a touchdown. Wouldn’t be shocked if this gets to 7.5 closer to game time. Remember just two weeks ago Darnold beat Dallas 24-22 and went for 338 yards and 2 TDs.
ARIZONA +10.5 over Saints – Rumblings this week of Brees playing which is why this was knocked down to a “lean” instead of a best bet but I can’t imagine them playing Brees when they have a bye next week and they don’t need to win this game. Line opened at Saints -7.5 and has been bet out to -10.5 and that is where I am leaning on Zona. Have the projected line on this game as Saints -4 and we are getting +10.5. We also have the projected final score of this game 24.6-22. Saints are 30th in fantasy points to QBs and 26th in fantasy points to WRs so you are telling me Kyler Murray can’t keep this game within 10 points with Patrick Peterson back? I’ll take the points!
Tampa Bay +3 vs. Titans – Not a huge fan of this game and I think the one blowup is skewing the stats but we have TB winning 27-20 so I have to at least list it. TB is a scoring machine that is also giving up a ton of points and Titans are the opposite on both sides of the ball scoring a small amount of points and allowing a small amount of points. Tampa Bay is averaging 6 more plays per game and 3 more FDs and I’ll always side with the big offense vs. the defensive team that can’t score. I mean do we really have faith in Ryan Tannehill?
TEASER GAMES I LIKE: Most books have 10 points 3 team teasers and those are fun to bet and fun to watch so here are my favorite picks – pick your favorite 3. Last time we posted this we had 5-6 plays and they all covered for us so any 3 you picked you won!
LA Rams -3 – Rams are playing at home, 7th in PPG at 27.1 and added Jalen Ramsey to their defense. CIN only scoring 16 PPG and we have this algo game at 29-17 Rams!
Arizona +20.5 – Saints scoring 23.4 PPG and giving up 21 PPG so I’ll lean on a garbage time cover even if the Saints get out to a big lead!
New England (-0.5) – Easy lock in any teaser, see above write up!
Packers +6.5 – I don’t think there is anyway Mahomes is going to play and can’t see the Pack losing by 7 vs. a Mahomes less Chiefs team.
San Fran +3.5 – That defensive is amazing! The #1 rule in teasers is not to cross the 0 but I don’t mind it with a team that is giving up only 10.7 PPG (2nd)!
NYG +16 – Barkley back and DET without K. Johnson.
Tampa Bay +13 – TEN is only 17 PPG on offensive (27th).
NY Jets +17 – I’d wait for the hook at +17.5 but JAX is 20.6 PPG on offensive and Jax hurting on defense.
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Haze