NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
We are already into Week 8 and it feels like this year is flying by. It might be because of COVID and the lack of things I can get out and do right now that I spend more time watching and researching. Last week was a solid week as my double ups were on fire and I made a 50% return on my GPP lines. My double up line was at 190.18 and then the last game caused the pay line in 3 of my $25 single entries move to 190.55. However, when I refreshed again I did manage to win a Showdown no that last late game for a 150 unit return. Okay it was only $1 entry and tied first for $155 but 150 units sounds so much better! Either way it was a good week.
ALGO PICKS:
These are plays looking at the ALGO model on the sheet. I recommend taking the “highest” player per team and putting into your player pool. I have been preaching this for 3 weeks now. Last week you would of came up with DeAndre Hopkins (28.3 points), Julio Jones (17.7 points), Terry McLaurin (22 points), Tee Higgins (18.8 points), Golladay (20.4 points), DaVante Adams (47.6 points) and Keenan Allen (25.5 points). This week our Algo picks look like this:
WIDE RECEIVER PLAYS:
Brandon Aiyuk (5800)
DaVante Adams (8800)
A.J. Green (4500) / Tyler Boyd (6600)
Travis Fulgham (5900)
Mike Evans (5700)
Robby Anderson (6600)
RUNNING BACK PLAYS:
Kareen Hunt (6900)
Dalvin Cook (7500)
Derrick Henry (8000)
FAVORITE GAME STACK:
If you are playing in a GPP then I recommend you start your lineup building by taking a QB with at least 1 (prefer 2) of his pass catchers and then run it back with 1 pass catcher from the other side. I scroll through the DK app and look at pricing to see what stacks are cheap then I can fill in around it with studs. Hoping that game goes off, goes into OT or becomes a crazy shootout is how you take down a GPP. I do have one game that dirt cheap to stack and I wanted to show you what it looks like on our “Stacks Tab” on the cheatsheet.
LAS VEGAS @ CLEVELAND – Vegas total opened at 55.5 and has moved down to 53. Our Algo has this at 59.6 points which is amazing and the prices for the players are cheap. Derek Carr at 5500 or Mayfield at 6100 are cheap QBs and you can pair them with 2 WRs and one from the other team and they are all CHEAP! Agholor (4700), Renfroe (3800), Ruggs (4900), my word they are all under 5K! Landry (5600), Higgins (4200) and Peoples-Jones (3800) and even Harrison Bryant who looked great last week is (3200).
Las Vegas is 31st in total defense and allowing 283.8 passing yards per game (28th) and Cleveland is 25th in total defense and allowing 288.1 passing yards per game (30th). Las Vegas comes in with the 6th best passing “O” and Brownies have the 16th best passing “O”. This game just has shootout written all over it and is great for stacking purposes. Also, it could be lower owned as both of these teams are only projected at 86.4 and 85.5 total fantasy points but both teams are allowing over 112 fantasy points per game. Someone has to eat up that extra production. Vegas is putting up 28.5 PPG and Cleveland 28.6 PPG.
Example Stack: Just doing a quick look at my phone while writing this article you can run Carr (5500) + Agholor (4700) + Waller (5600) and run it back with Higgins (4200) and then if you went low end punt defense Miami (2400) then you have 6900 per spot to fill up RB1, RB2, WR3 & FLEX. You could add Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and DaVante Adams to this lineup and then find a cheap 3300 piece for the flex. Now how fun would that be to see the Vegas game go nuts and have a 38-35 score and then know your other spots are filled with Henry, Cook and Adams? That makes FF fun!
WR vs. CB MATCHUP CHART PICKS:
Knowing if a player is in shadow coverage or lining up against a tough corner is key when building DFS lineups. Our matchup chart will break this down for you and you can easily sort by ALGO and get the best plays!
TYLER BOYD – Boyd runs in the slot 85% of the time and Kristian Fulton covers the slot over 61% of the time for TEN. TEN has Malcolm Butler and Johnathan Joseph on the outside and they are both solid corners that are allowing only a 61% and 60% catch rate. Fulton is allowing an 87% catch rate in the slot. Tyler Boyd is one of the safer plays on the slate as they will need to put up some points with Henry pounding the rock. Either A.J Green or Higgens will also have a decent game but the matchup isn’t a good as Boyds.
DAVANTE ADAMS – He is expensive but he is a stud and one of the highest graded WRs on the slate. He is also pulling a massive 82% target share and none of the cover corners for MIN are even close to his WR grade on PFF.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON – He is a sneaky play this week as Adam Thielen will draw shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander who PFF gave a grade of 90.8 (which is really good) and he is only allowing a 58% catch rate and 0.15 FP/Route. The other two CBs have a PFF grade of only 56 and 62.2 so Jefferson will have a good shot at a big day even though they are a run first team. Packers will rack up some points vs. this weak defense so MIN should be throwing and playing catch up the entire second half.
TYLER LOCKETT – This could be another big Lockett week. DK Metcalf plays on the outside 85% of the time and the 49’ers best CB is Jason Verrett who covers the outside. He is on one side 50% of the time and 49% on the other so he will move all over. He is one of the highest graded CBs and allows a low 46% catch rate. Lockett runs out of the slot and Jamar Taylor is the slot cover corner for 49’ers and he covers the slot 94% of the time. If he was 50% of the time I wouldn’t worry about it but since he is the majority slot cover guy that is who I’m going to focus on. He has a PFF grade of only 57.7 and allowing nearly a 70% catch rate. Lockett should destroy him!
SCOTTY MILLER – I know this game isn’t on the main slate but people also play season long leagues and showdown slates so I wanted to include him. Mike Evans will see shadow coverage from James Bradberry in this game and that means Scotty Miller will see Ryan Lewis. PFF has a grade on Bradberry of 80.1 and Lewis of only 41.7 and is one of the lowest graded CBs.
A.J. BROWN – If you want to pivot off the chalky Derrick Henry then AJ Brown might be that guy. He is almost un-guardable right now. CIN doesn’t have a corner graded over 60.9 on the team and AJ Brown comes in at 82.9 so he should have easy day racking up yards if he can get the volume. He also has 25-30lbs on any of the Cincy corners coming in at 226 lbs and the CIN corners are only 190, 192 and 203. Good luck trying to guard AJ!
TARGET MONSTERS:
Targets = Volume = Points, this is where we can find some good potential.
Top Targets from last week (Week 7):
Top Targets for the season on a per game basis:
TRENCHES:
Here we are looking to attack some of the weak defensive lines!
32 – HOUSTON – Bye Week.
31 – MIAMI vs. LA Rams. Smash spot for Henderson / Brown. Miami is 30th in giving up the power run and allowing the other team a 77% success rate and they are 32nd in 2nd level yards. This means there should be several 5-10 yard run plays for the Rams.
30 – DALLAS vs. Philly. Sunday night game so not on the main slate. Boston Scott is a great play if there is no Miles Sanders this week. Possible CPT in showdowns.
29 – DET vs. Colts. Jonathan Taylor is in a smash spot vs. the Lions this week. Lions are also 30th in second level yards and 31st in allowing the power run. I don’t know how Taylor doesn’t find the end zone this week.
28 – LA RAMS vs Miami. Gaskin could be a sneaky play this week. Rams are 9th in second level yards so “big runs” probably aren’t in the cards this week.
27 – NEW ENGLAND vs. Buffalo. The Bills can’t run so not excited about Singletary but Moss might be a sneaky deep field GPP play with him getting more snaps and carries.
26 – MIN vs. Packers. Aaron Jones another smash spot! MIN is decent for 2nd level yards and open field yards but Jones is a stud.
25 – CIN vs. Titans. Derrick Henry should get another 20+ carries, 100 yards and at least one TD. CIN is also 27th in second level yards and 28th in open field yards.
DEFENSE VS. POSITION POINTS ALLOWED:
Screen shot below explains everything. You can determine which teams give up the most fantasy points at the position or even per game!
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Thanks for reading,
Haze