NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NFL is changing so quick right now this article will likely be outdated by Saturday. Make sure to check on the players that are active/inactive. Matt Stafford was ruled out as I was writing the article. This is our ever changing Covid and injury infested NFL season!
FAVORITE GAME STACK OF THE WEEK:
SEATTLE @ BUFFALO
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE: Seattle 30 vs. Buffalo 27
VEGAS LINE: Opened at 51 and moved to 55 and our algo has 57.3 so Vegas is catching up to us.
BREAKDOWN: Seattle games are great to stack because Seattle has the #2 offense in the NFL and also the 30th rated passing defense. They also pass at a 61% clip meaning they drive down the field quickly or they don’t take much time off the clock. If you want to be safe and pay up then Russell Wilson (7600) is a great QB to use as he has 29, 36, 26, 25, 40 and 35 DK points in his recent games. You need to stack with Tyler Lockett (6800) or D.K. Metcalf (7800) with him. In Weeks 1-3 they were both putting up close to 20 points each and then from Week 4 on we have one of them going nuts and the other one taking a back seat. Due to this I don’t like the double stack with both WRs unless you are game stacking. For example, Week 8 Metcalf goes for 43 DKP and Lockett only 7, Week 7 Lockett goes for 56 and Metcalf only 4, Week 6 – Bye, Week 5 Metcalf goes for 27 and Lockett only 8. I do like squeezing in a David Moore (3100) for the WR-2 in the stack because he is cheap and has put up solid production in 3 of the last 4 games with 13.6 points, 8.8 points and 18.5 points and a zero.
D.K. Metcalf should see a shadow from Tre’Davious White who is a solid corner and only allowing a 0.17 fantasy points per route and only targeted 8% of the time. However, I will have some exposure to D.K. because he is almost un-guardable at this point. D.K is 6’3” 229lbs and White is 5’11” and 192lbs so there is a little bit of a mis-match. To be safe I will own more Tyler Lockett who primarily runs out of the slot and Taron Johnson covers the slot 95% of the time. Taron Johnson is the way to attack Buffalo and he is allowing an 81% catch rate and 0.34 fantasy points per route.
If Chris Carson is able to play he has a path to success but I worry about using a RB when a team is passing north of 60% of the plays. Seattle has the 10th best OLine facing Buffalo and their 22nd DLine so that is a plus for Carson. When we look further into the running game we see that Seattle is 15th in runs of 5-10 yards but Buffalo is 31st in allowing the 5-10 yard runs. This means I look for success on the ground with a few bigger runs from Carson. Buffalo is 13th in runs of 10+ yards so I wouldn’t expect a Dalvin Cook game. If Carson isn’t able to play then DeeJay Dallas will be a fun RB pivot to use at 5,000.
Buffalo has the 22nd OLine and facing the 11th DLine and when we dig in further the runs of 5-10 yards Buffalo is 8th and Seattle is 8th best at now allowing them. Seattle is also 9th best at not allowing runs of 10+ yards. Since Buffalo has the 25th rushing offense I would expect their points to come through the air against the 30th rated passing defense of Seattle. Josh Allen (7000) and Stefon Diggs (7400) would be the primary stack as Seattle is 22nd vs. WR-1 coverage.
FAVORITE GAME STACKS:
Russell Wilson / Tyler Lockett / David Moore & Stefon Diggs
Russell Wilson / DK Metcalf / David Moore & Stefon Diggs
Josh Allen / Stefon Diggs / Lockett or DK Metcalf (GPP)
INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS THAT POP:
PHILLIP LINDSAY (5200) – On paper Denver looks like a horrible matchup vs. ATL as they hold the 8th best rushing defense and allowing the 6th least amount of rush yards. The one hole that I can see for Lindsay is that Denver is 4th in rush plays of 5-10 yards and ATL is 22nd in allowing them. This could give Lindsay some sneaky runs to rack up some yards. GPP only.
DALVIN COOK (8200) – If you can afford the nose bleed pricing this week Dalvin is a stud in another good matchup. For DLine, Allowing runs of 5-10 years and runs of1 10+ yards DET ranks 24th, 21st and 17th and on the other side MIN ranks 4th, 2nd and 9th. Plus matchup for Cook facing a team allowing 130 rushing yards per game. With no Stafford in this game they should easily win and Dalvin should be eating clock the 2nd half. Alexander Mattison (4000) wouldn’t be a terrible GPP play as he could get 30-40 rush yards on his own and a TD. I can’t imagine they would give Cook with all the carries after the big game last week and if they are leading this week.
MARVIN JONES (5100) – I wish Stafford was playing but Chase Daniel isn’t a terrible replacement. No Kenny Golladay so Marvin Jones is the default WR-1 and MIN ranks 30th at coverage for the WR-1.
CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE (6100) – CAR has the 26th rated rushing defense, allowing 125 rush yards per game and they are 30th vs. pass catching RBs. Mahomes will get his 3+ touchdowns but for GPP I’m hoping CEH is a little more involved this week. It’s a risk but for a GPP he has the upside of a couple score.
JAMES ROBINSON (7000) – I’m a little worried he may face a stacked box with no Minshew under center but the matchup is fantastic. HOU allowing 165.9 rushing yards per game (31st) and they are 26th vs. pass catching RBs. Jax also holds the 8th best OLine facing HOU and their 31st DLine so that is a plus for our RB. In 5-10 yards Jax is 16th vs. 26th of HOU and 10+ runs they are 18th vs. 32nd of HOU. James Robinson should get a few more carries to keep the ball out of Jake Lutons hands.
CHASE EDMONDS (6800) – Love this guy! MIA is a strong pass defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL and we preached it last week when they faced the LAR. Henderson was averaging almost 7 yards per carry and instead of sticking with what works they started throwing picks and imploded. Edmonds is facing the 32nd rated rush defense, allowing 131.1 yards per game (25th) and has a great matchup in the trenches. The trenches we look at DLine, allowed runs of 5-10 years and allowed runs of 10+ yards. MIA ranks 30th, 29th and 18th in those. In the power runs (this is basically rushing for 1-2 years for a 1st down or pounding it into the endzone Miami ranks 32nd and ARI is 4th. Great matchup this week and he might be my cash lock for RB.
JUSTIN HERBERT (6800) – If you can get 3x out of your QB that is a great start for cash and GPPs. Herbert has shined and he has been over 3x the last 4 weeks in a row putting up 23, 42, 27 and 24 DKPs. Now he gets a divisional matchup vs. the LV Raiders who have the 27th rated passing defense. LAC are 26th in rushing so I don’t expect Herbert to hand it off 30 times. LAC hold the 7th best passing offense and they throw 54% of the time. Pair him with Keenan Allen (7000) or Mike Williams (5100) and you have a great start to a cash game lineup!
ALLEN ROBINSON (6900) - Chicago can't run the ball and TEN is allowing the 31st most fantasy points to the WR position. TEN will put points on the board and Chicago will need to keep up. Robinson has average 9.5 targets per game this year.
Thanks for reading,
Haze
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