PLAYER PROP breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Player props are extremely fun to bet and mix and match if you are on a site like Thrive Fantasy or Prize Picks. I pull these lines from Mybookie and PrizePicks and use them as references. There are so many plays that I like this weekend I can't possibly type them all out but I'm giving you a good chunk of what I'm looking at for the weekend! MyBookie Referral Link: https://mybookie.ag/signup/?reff=MB1176747
PROPS THAT WE LIKE:
JOE BURROW PROPS:
PASSING YARDS OVER 255.5 ** Line from PrizePicks.
MY BOOKIE CUSTOM LINE: OVER 299.5 (+125)
OVER 299.5 PASSING YARDS + OVER 2.5 TOUCHDOWN PASSES (PAYS +340)
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: Over the last two games Joe Burrow has put up 971 passing yards and 8 touchdowns! Over the last 5 games he has 446, 525, 157, 348 and 300. So now we want to see how the Las Vegas pass “D” has been doing. Las Vegas gave up 355 yards through the air to the LAC last week so that’s all I really need to see at this point. 255.5 is a really low number and very obtainable this week. Since he has put up 446 and 525 over the last two I like the over 299.5 at plus money. You can also mix this in with some WR overs and passing TDs and really crank it up!
JA’MARR CHASE PROPS:
RECEIVING YARDS OVER 68.5 ** Line from PrizePicks.
MY BOOKIE CUSTOMER LINE: RECEIVING YARDS OVER 99.5 (+144)
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: Love to pair this with a Joe Burrow passing yards prop since they correlate so well. Chase only played limited snaps in Week 18 to get the rookie franchise WR record so let’s look at Week 17 and Week 16. In those two weeks he went for the 266 yards vs. KC where he made some amazing grabs in coverage and then 125 yards vs. a weak BAL secondary. His OVER 68.5 seems really low for a team that just gave up 355 to the Chargers and plus money at hitting 100? Definitely taking shots all over these props!
FUN CUSTOM CARD:
Chase o99.5 + Chase TD + Burrow o299.5 + Burrow o2.5 TD passes (Pays +800!)
JOSH JACOBS PROPS:
RUSHING YARDS OVER 56.5 ** Line from PrizePicks.
MY BOOKIE CUSTOMER LINE: OVER 99.5 (+218)
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: If the Raiders have a shot at this game they need to feed the rock to Jacobs. He put up 132 yards last week, 63 the week prior and then 129 the week before. In 2 of the last 3 weeks he has 26 and 27 attempts so they are not afraid to feed him. So how has the CIN rush “D” done over the last couple weeks? They gave up 123+58 yards to Johnson & Chubb last week, 88+37 to the two main Kansas City running backs the week prior and then 72+53 to the two Denver RBs in Week 15.
DEREK CARR PROPS:
PASSING YARDS UNDER 251.5 ** Line from MyBookie.
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: Over the last 5 games Carr has only put up 186, 255, 201, 236 and 263. This puts him just barely over that line in only two games the other games he was under or way under. CINCY has a beast pass “D” that only allowed Keenum 176 passing yards last week, 259 to KC, 304 to Johnson (rare game) and then under 200 to Denver. This works well correlating with Josh Jacobs since if Jacobs has a good game then Carr likely won’t need to throw as much. UNDER!
JOE MIXON PROPS:
RUSHING YARDS UNDER 75.5 ** Line from MyBookie.
RECEIVING YARDS OVER 20.5
RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 (+125)
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: Joe Mixon has rushed for 12, 18, 17, 18 and 19 attempts over the last 5 weeks and his HIGH in rush yards is 65! He has rushed for only 46, 65, 58, 58 and 54 and has not had a game with an average over 4.0. He does get the job done through the air and over the last two weeks he has 7 for 40 and 6 for 70. When I saw the prop of over 20.5 receiving yards and over 3.5 catches I was excited. You can combine these for over 3.5 catches and over 39.5 receiving yards and get a whopping +185! If you want to get crazy Joe Mixon over 5.5 receipts is a whopping +360!
HUNTER RENFROE PROPS:
Hunter Renfroe is a PPR monster and when he has a big game he has a ton of catches and receptions. I’m only interested in a combo parlay with Renfroe that is going to be really well. Over his last 5 games his two best games were 7 catches for 76 yards and 13 catches for 117 yards and then 3 games of 3-4 catches and sub 50 yards. You can get o7.5 receipts + o79.5 yards for +600 so tossing a unit on those odds!
DAK PRESCOTT PROPS:
Dak has been on fire over the last few weeks and it’s now or go home for the rest of the winter. Dallas can’t run on San Francisco as they have a beast rush defense so if they are going to get this done it will be through the air. DAK has thrown 5, 3 and 4 touchdowns over the last 3 weeks so (OVER 3.5 touchdowns +250) looks really juicy!
DARREL WILLIAMS PROPS:
RUSHING YARDS OVER 56.5 ** Line from MyBookie.
RECEIVING YARDS OVER 21.5
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: When KC beat PIT in Week 16 he only rushed 11 times but average 5.0 yards per carry for 55 yards. CEH has been ruled out so if Darrel Williams is good to go then I like this over. He has 30, 19, 30, 0 and 31 receiving yards over the last 5 games and this could be a one play payday since he has long receptions of 17, 18 and 23 over the last 5 games.
PATRICK MAHOMES PROPS:
RUSHING YARDS OVER 18.5 ** Line from MyBookie.
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: This prop has made me a ton of money this year! It always comes out around 15-18 yards and he has it by halftime so I’m going right back to it! He has 54, 25, 0, 32 and 20 rushing yards over the last 5 games. Now that 0 was against this same PIT team where they won 36-10 but I think this game will be closer than before. If Watt can put some pressure on Mahomes and get him out of the pocket that PIT DEF will be back trying to cover Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce so there should be plenty of room to run.
BYRON PRINGLE PROPS:
RECEIVING YARDS OVER 27.5 ** Line from PrizePicks.
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: This prop should be a slam dunk. He has 56, 35, 75, 22 and 28 over the last 5 weeks. Last they he faced PIT in Week 16 he had a 6 catch / 75 yard / 2 touchdown line. He could get this in a single catch as he has a “long” of 19, 27, 22 and 28 in the last 5 games.
BRANDON AIYUK PROPS:
RECEIVING YARDS OVER 47.5 ** Line from PrizePicks.
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: One of the two San Fran WRs is definitely going over if not both of them. I started with Aiyuk as he has the lower line on PrizePicks by 10 yards over team mate Deebo Samuel. Aiyuk has 107 and 94 over the last two weeks with long catches of 31 and 43 yards. OVER!
DEEBO SAMUEL PROPS:
RECEIVING YARDS OVER 57.5 ** Line from PrizePicks.
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: Deebo has 95, 63, 159 and 60 yards over the last 4 games so he is on a 4-0 “OVER” run for this number Prize Picks has released. MyBookie has it higher at 66.5 so it’s a steal on the PP site! Don’t worry about Diggs from Dallas. He is an elite corner but he has also given up the most yards per catch and the most receiving yards so he is not a shut down corner.
THRIVE FANTASY PICKS:
Most of these were discussed above but Thrive might have a little better/worse line. If I did not discuss them above I'll add a quick explanation.
Eli Mitchell was not discussed above but Dallas has struggled to stop the run and Mitchell is a big volume back when healthy. If he has success early he could run all day, I like this all the way up to around 86.5 rushing yards.
Need to have some Leonard Fournette if he is back and fully healthy. He had some massive games for the Bucs when he took over the back field and now without Antonio Brown or Godwin he may also get some extra targets in the passing game.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze