NFL Wild Card Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
We made it through the NFL season with only a few hiccups and now we are already for our Super Bowl playoff run! Let’s look at some of our favorite stacks and game notes for this week.
STACKING FOR GPPS:
The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.
GAME BY GAME BREAKDOWN:
INDY @ BUFFALO
VEGAS: Buffalo opened at -6.5 and still -6.5. Total opened at 52.5 and now 51.5.
OUR MODEL: We have this game 28-27 so much tighter than the Vegas spread.
GAME NOTES & STACKS:
JOSH ALLEN + STEFON DIGGS + JOHN BROWN – Buffalo can’t run the ball and that is a good thing because INDY has the 9th best rushing defense and they are only allowing 90.5 rushing yards per game which ranks 2nd in the NFL. However, the bills have a path to success through the air as they rank 3rd in passing yards per game and also the 3rd best passing offense in the NFL. Buffalo is getting hot at the right time heading into the playoffs with Allen posting 20.3, 35.3 and 40.7 DKPs over his last 3 games. Indy is a good defense against the pass where they rank 8th but they are 19th vs. WR-1 coverage putting Stefon Diggs at the top the list for us. Stefon Diggs has 15, 45, 29 and 32 DKPs over the last 4. When Josh Allen has a big game Diggs also has a big game so lock them up together. If you want to add a 3rd pass catcher John Brown is the guy I’m looking at. When he is off the field Cole Beasley makes a solid #2 but Brown should be back this week for us and is coming off a 17.2 DKP game last week and priced at a low 4700 on DK. Last week I posted in our chat group that I loved Isaiah McKenzie as min price on DK and decided to use him for cash and gpp and he exploded for 24.5 DKPs. He may also be involved here and is still only 3300 on DK. Zach Moss / Devin Singletary are fine to use as a general “punt” option but they have no ceiling for GPPs. One of them may get luck and hit 3x but that is the ceiling for them. Since Week 3 only 1 Buffalo RB has reached 20 DKPs and that was in Week 8 with Zach Moss and most weeks they don’t combine for 20 DKPs. Indy allowing the 2nd lowest amount of yards per rush at 3.7 has them off my radar.
PHILLIP RIVERS / JONATHAN TAYLOR / T.Y. HILTON / ZACH PASCAL – Buffalo ranks 17th in rushing defense and 12th in passing defense so they are average and a little better than average. When you look at the advanced stats you see Buffalo is allowing 4.6 yards per rush which ranks 26th and bodes really well for Jonathan Taylor who is coming off a 41.4 DKP performance last week. Over the last 5 weeks Taylor has really taken advantage of his schedule putting up 41.4, 19.4, 19.5, 33.5 and 22.5 DKPs. He is expensive at 7900 this week on DK but 3x is definitely in the picture with upside. Buffalo has a good D-Line but they rank dead last in runs of 5-10 yards so Taylor should get plenty of “chunk plays”. Phillip Rivers continues to be a CHEAP QB that is just a 3x monster. He is priced at only 5500 this week and has put up 12, 13, 17, 18, 19, 19, 22 and 19 DKPs. He doesn’t have the ceiling like some of the other guys but he is a safe cash option. Buffalo ranks 23rd vs. WR-1 coverage so T.Y. Hilton should lead the team in targets again. T.Y. Hilton has at least 7 targets in each of the last 6 weeks. Zach Pascal has 16 targets over the last 3 weeks and is 2nd on the team during that span. Zach Pascal or T.Y. Hilton should have a solid GPP worthy game here.
LA RAMS @ SEATTLE
VEGAS: Rams opened at +5 and now +3.5 with the total going 43 to 42.5.
OUR MODEL: We have this game with Seattle 29-20.
GAME NOTES & STACKS:
I’m not going to give game stacks here because Jared Goff is throwing passes today and he is “Q” to play. That changes the entire landscape if he is in the game or if he is out of the game. Seattle allows a ton of passing yards per game at 285 which ranks dead last so Jared Goff is playing is a GPP target at only 6000 on DK. Seattle has been struggling horribly over the last 4 weeks and they face a Rams defense that is 4th in total “D” and allowing the 3rd lowest rush yards per attempt at only 3.8. Rams also rank 13th vs. WR-1 and 1st vs. WR-2 coverage. Seattle is 30th in QB pass protection and Rams are 2nd in QB pressure. Could be an ugly game and a long game for Russell Wilson.
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON
VEGAS: Tampa Bay opened at -7.5 and now -8. Total 46.5 down to 45.
OUR MODEL: We have this game 30-17 with Bucs rolling away.
GAME NOTES & STACKS:
TOM BRADY + MIKE EVANS/CHRIS GODWIN/ANTONIO BROWN – Tom Brady is coming off a monster 34.3 DKPs last week and even had 32.9 the week prior and with a price tag on DK of only 6900 he is in play. WAS holds the 2nd best passing “D” but they rank 24th vs. WR-1 coverage and 17th vs. TEs. I don’t think WAS can stop the Tampa passing game so I’m going to throw that pass “D” rank out the window. Statistically there are 2 pass catchers that usually have big games with Brady. Last week it was Godwin (33.3) and Antonio Brown (39.8) and the week prior it was Godwin (19.4) and Evans (43.1) and the week prior it was Mike Evans and AB again. Mike Evans is Q for this game but looks like it should be able to go as he is day-to-day right now and the swelling is already down. Mike Evans and Antonio Brown have the highest ceiling of all the Bucs WRs and they have both came over the last two weeks.
ALEX SMITH + TERRY MCLAURIN + LOGAN THOMAS – It’s hard to me to consider any WAS player against a Bucs defense that ranks 5th overall and allowing only 3.6 yards per rush (1st in the NFL) and a league lowest rush yards per game at 80.6. They do allow 246.6 passing yards per game which is 21st so an Alex Smith / Terry McLaurin stack might be contrarian enough this weekend to consider but definitely not for cash. Logan Thomas would be the other pass catcher I would add in as he has been producing lately and put up 13, 26, 10 and 25 DKPs between Week 14-Week 16. In our model WAS will be down and playing “catch up” so passing is the way to go.
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE
VEGAS: Ravens opened at -3.5 and now -3, total opened and still at 55.
OUR MODEL: We have this game 30-28 Ravens.
GAME NOTES & STACKS:
LAMAR JACKSON + J.K. DOBBINS + MARK ANDREWS – Wow, what a game this will be! Earlier in the season the Titans beat Baltimore in OT and they were fired up. In that game Mark Andrews was 5 for 96 and a TD and should have success against a Titans pass defense that is DEAD LAST VS. TE COVERAGE and allowing the 29th most passing yards per game at 277.4. J.K. Dobbins is coming off a 31 DKP game and putting up consistent points each week for a team that is a run first team. Ravens are #1 in rushing yards per game and Titans allowing 4.5 yards per rush attempt which ranks 19th. What I like best about playing the Ravens here is that the Titans give up the 3rd highest TD conversion rate at 69.2%. If you can’t afford J.K. Dobbins at 6600 on DK then it’s fine to drop down to Gus Edwards at 4400. Finally, Lamar Jackson is also fine to play without any receivers due to his rushing upside. He has 25, 22, 30, 38 and 27 DKPs over the last 5 weeks. Titans defense ranks 29th so YES RAVENS will put points on the board this week!
RYAN TANNEHILL + AJ BROWN/COREY DAVIS + DERRICK HENRY – Derrick Henry is priced at a whopping 9200 and while I should tell you to fade him because Baltimore has a decent run “D” I’m not. 3x value on 9200 is 27.6 DKPs and he has put up 39, 28, 39 and 42 in 4 of his last 6 games and most of those are pushing 4x upside. In the last matchup he went for 133 yards and a TD. Baltimore has a solid D-Line but when he gets past the line they rank 16th in runs of 5-10 yards and 25th in runs of 10+ yards. Ryan Tannehill has a solid price point of 6600 on DK and has put up 28, 18 and 37 DKPs over the last 3 weeks giving up great upside in a game they are going to need to score to win because of their lack of defense. A.J. Brown has been the most consistent WRs putting up 34, 15 and 27 in 3 of the last 4.
CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS
VEGAS: Saints opened -9.5 and still -9.5 and total opened at 48 and now 47.
OUR MODEL: We have this game 25-21 Saints winning.
GAME NOTES & STACKS:
DREW BREES + EMMANUEL SANDERS + JARED COOK – Bears have a tough “D” but they were carved up last week by Aaron Rodgers who put up 4 touchdowns with only 24 pass attempts. They held Aaron Jones to only 42 yards. Lot’s of status questions in this game so I’d take Drew Brees at a low 5700 and stack a couple pass catchers with him. He is averaging 20-24 DKPs which is around 4x value and he is playing at HOME in his temperature controlled dome where he is most comfortable. Emmanuel Sanders has been a target monster over recent weeks and coming off a 21.3 DKP game. Jared Cook has also put up a solid 11.8+ DKPs in 4 of the last 5 and priced at 4600.
CHICAGO PLAYERS – I’m not going to stack any Bears this week. Saints are 2nd in total “D” and rank 2nd in rush “D” and 3rd in pass “D”. Bears will get completely shut down this week and will struggle to score. Saints were burned from a Superbowl run a couple years ago on a bad pass interference no call so they will be pumped up. Saints allow 93.9 rush yards per game and 5th least amount of passing yards per game at 217.
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH
VEGAS: Steelers opened at -3.5 and now -6, total 47 to 47.5.
OUR MODEL: We have this game with Steelers 26-23.
GAME NOTES & STACKS:
BEN ROETHLISBERGER + DIONTAE JOHNSON + JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER/CHASE CLAYPOOL – Cleveland squeaked by a resting Steelers squad last week 24-22 and now they get to face the “A” squad in a playoff matchup where Ben got a week of rest under his belt. Cleveland ranks 25th in total “D” and 25th in passing “D”. They allow 247.6 passing yards per game which ranks 22nd in the NFL. Now the Steelers can’t run and heck they barely even try to run the ball anymore. They rank dead last in rush yards per game so I’m not playing any PIT RBs. Ben Roethlisberger is a low 6100 on DK and has 29, 9, 16 and 22 DKPs across his last 4 contest so he can push 4x-5x upside and has a floor of around 2x. Diontae Johnson has been a monster this season and put up 13, 22, 20, 8 and 21 DKPs over recent weeks. JuJu Smith-Schuster starting off the season taking a back seat to Chase Claypool but over the last 6 weeks he has been the solid #2 with the exception of last week with Mason Rudolph under center. JuJu has put up over 17.5 DKPs in 3 of his last 4. You will need to get the 2 WR correct with Ben for the highest upside stack. I will say the Chase Claypool has a good shot here for big game as CLE ranks 29th in deep pass attempts. James Washington is the clear #4 but at min price of 3000 he could catch a 70 yard TD and crush value.
BAKER MAYFIELD + NICK CHUBB + JARVIS LANDRY – My least favorite stack against this Steeler “D” thank ranks #1 in total defense. They allow the 10th least rushing yards per game and 3rd least passing yards per game. Nick Chubb is always in play and priced fair at 6700 on DK. He has put up over 14.5 DKPs in 6 straight weeks so he is giving you a good floor. In those 6 weeks his two high games were 24.3 and 29.6 giving you a little bit of a ceiling. Baker Mayfield is boom or bust with a 2x floor and a 6x ceiling. In the last 6 weeks he has lows of 10 and 16.2 DKPs and then highest of 33.5 and 34.0 DKPs and priced at a low 5400 making him a large field GPP target. Jarvis Landry is the top pass catcher for the Browns with 16, 19, 12, 20 and 34 DKPs over his last 5 games. Rashard Higgins is in play for a 2nd option as he had a streak of 21.5, 18.8 and 12 DKPs over weeks 13, 14 and 15. Over the last 3 weeks it has been Austin Hooper who is a low 3900 putting up the 2nd most fantasy points with 13.7, 14.1 and 15.1. Kareem Hunt is an interesting large field GPP play based on game script. Hunt is priced at a low 4800 on DK (1900 less than Chubb) and he could become a target option if they are down and playing catchup. In Week 14 Hunt had 29 DKPs which is 6x value.
Thanks for reading,
Haze