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Northern Trust Picks & Plays!


PGA Stats & Plays from CheatSheetPros!

QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

Coming out of last week we are looking at a much better tournament. The top 125 players in Fedex cup points will compete the next few weeks narrowing the field each week with a massive prize at the end of the rainbow. All of these golfers will be highly motivated to play their best golf. If you are not familiar with PGA or new to PGA DFS consider this the run to the Superbowl of PGA and this is Round 1.

COURSE:

TPC Boston – 7,350ish yards – Par 71

Difficulty: 37 of 49 ranked

Green Types: Bentgrass

Green Speed: Fast

QUICK BREAKDOWN OF SOME KEY STATS:

- 3 of the 4 highest birdie rate holes are the Par 5s which come in at 45%, 35% and 32%.

- Proximity Shots will mainly be from 200+ yards and then a large amount of both 150-175 and 175-200. Someone long off the tee will have a shorter approach shot and someone average will have a longer shot 175+ yards.

- Par 4 scoring will be a factor because 11 of the 18 holes fall into this category.

- Greens are small and will be hard to hit so approach and proximity is key.

- If a golfer is not good off the tee then you want them to be solid in scrambling.

- Also, factor in the around the green stats as there are several bunkers and with the greens on the smaller side the around the green stats will come into play when someone misses the green.

GOLFERS OVER 10,000 ON DK: “HIGH END STUDS”

All of these golfers are going to have great stats so I’m not going to throw a bunch of numbers at you for Justin Thomas vs. Rory, etc. If you are playing GPP I think it is really hard to have a golfer over $10,000 on DK this week hit value. You need them to “Win” to hit value. The idea behind GPP is getting the best bang for your buck (value) and picking the winner. Personally, I like a more balanced lineup this week. But if you want to play some of the studs this week here is who I like.

COLLIN MORIKAWA – I like Morikawa because he is the 2nd cheapest of the category so hitting value will be much easier. He is also a phenomenal irons player and ranks high in approach and proximity stats. He also has 2 wins in his last 4 tournaments with a 20th and 48th mixed in there.

BRYSON DECHAMBEAU – I can’t argue against Bryson as he is playing great golf this year and this is crunch time. Out of all the golfers over $10,000 on DK he has the lowest average round (-3.00) and highest percentage of rounds below par (81%).

GOLFERS 9,000 – 9,999: “UPPER MID-RANGE”

WEBB SIMPSON – Webb has the highest percentage below par (79%) and the lowest average score per round (-2.33) in this tier. He has also put up 116.5 and 91 DK points in two of his last 3 starts. Webb is also 4th in Par 4 scoring and in the proximity shots from 175-200 and 200+ he ranks a solid 8th and 20th respectively.

JASON DAY – He has been on fire finishing 4th, 6th, 4th and 7th in his last 4 tournaments. His ball striking on the year is +1.45 per round which puts him ahead of guys like Dustin Johnson (+1.03) and Jon Rahm (+1.28). Let’s throw some stat out for you. Day is #1 in Par 5 scoring over the last 36 rounds, 36th in Par 4 scoring and 13th in Par 3 scoring. His proximity numbers are a little high but I’m sure they are great for his last 16 rounds played. What I really like about Jason Day is 2nd in sand saves and 6th in scrambling so if he does miss the green on his approach he is solid a saving par.

GOLFERS 8,000 – 8,999: “THE SWEET SPOT”

DANIEL BERGER – Berger who is playing at +2.79 strokes better than the average golfer over his last 20 rounds is priced at only 8900 on DK? Yes please! In his last 5 starts he has 4 top 13 finishes and a MC. He is +1.08 strokes gained ball striking this year and statwise he is a machine. Over the last 36 rounds he is #3 in DK points, #7 in T2G, 8th in APP, 19th in putting, 2nd in Bob%, 4th in scrambling and 36th in total proximity. Let’s just add in that 2nd in Par 4 scoring and 27th in Par 5 scoring. Berger is a stud!

GOLFERS 7,000 – 7,999: “The LINEUP FILLERS!”

BILLY HORSCHEL – So we have to talk about Billy after the “almost win” last week, right? Forget Jim Herman that guy is garbage! Horschel is playing at +2.24 strokes better per round than the average golfer right now. He is coming off 2nd place last week, 43rd, 25th, 13th and 7th in his last 5. He is way too cheap at 7900 on DK.

RUSSELL HENLEY – Henley should play well here based on his statistical breakdown. 8th in T2G, 2nd in APP, 22nd in scrambling, 11th in proximity and 26th in Par 4 scoring. Henley is +0.88 in ball striking so I don’t mind his -0.02 in OTT with the solid scrambling number. He is coming off a 9th place last week.

DOC REDMAN – So each week I sift through the score cards for the showdown slates and Doc jumped out at me. Through 36 holes last week he didn’t have a single bogey! Doc Redman is playing at +1.28 strokes better than the average golfer and ranks 18th in approach, 14th in proximity and 10th in sand saves. His scrambling is worrisome at 98th but he is accurate off the tee. Doc is +1.06 in ball striking and coming off a 3rd place finish last week and 29th the week prior. Doc coming in hot!

GOLFERS UNDER 7,000:DARTS – JUST NEED THEM TO MAKE THE CUT!”

BRENDAN STEELE – He doesn’t blow you off the page with his recent performances but he has flashed in key spots. Statwise he jumps out at me for this tournament. Priced at only 6800 on DK he is 17th in approach, 37th in driving distance, 22nd in GIR:Gained, 49th in scrambling and 5th in proximity. For the long approach shots he knocks it out of the park ranking 13th in 150-175, 2nd in 175-200 and 4th in 200+. I don’t think there is anyone else on the sheet with those 3 with a higher average rank. He is also 20th in Par 4 scoring. His last 5 events he has finished 22nd, 53rd, 13th, 52nd and 6th.

SAM BURNS – This guy is only 6900 on DK and ranks 3rd in our lowest average round since the return at -2.59 strokes per round. He is only behind Bryson (-3.00) and Daniel Berger (-2.67). He is coming off a solid run last week shooting -3, -2, -5 and -5. 16 of his last 17 rounds are below par! He is also 4th in driving distance so a great wild card to have in your GPP player pool.

CAMERON DAVIS – Like Steele he is another guy that jumps out at me. He is 9th in driving distance and a respectable 26th in sand saves and 39th in scrambling. His T2G, OTT and APP are 27th, 26th and 59th. He is 16th in Par 4 scoring and 40th in Par 5 scoring and 2nd in DK points over his last 36 rounds. His priced is almost MIN on DK and 6300. Last week he opened with a +1 and then -5, -5 and -5. He has an average round of -2.13 and 75% of his rounds are below par. Prior to last week he played the 3M Open and shot -4, -5, -2 and -3. He is a great sneaky play for this week.

If you are on the actual article link then I’m going to post some screen shots below for you of the top 15 from our round tracker and player tracker cheatsheets.


ROUND TRACKER CHEATSHEET - Sorted by lowest average round.

PLAYER TRACKER CHEATSHEET - Sorted by highest average per tournament.

PLAYER TRACKER CHEATSHEET - Sorted by highest average value (current pricing).


Thanks for reading,

Haze

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