MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
RECAP FROM YESTERDAY: Hope you read the article breakdown yesterday because we were screaming from the roof tops that NYY CRUSH LHP! They crushed David Price, then Chris Sale and then they got to face John Means yesterday and we were posting take NYY, take NYY run line and stack the heck out of the NYY! Also Paxton was a near must start on our sheet when you say the opponent holding a 30%+ strikeout rate vs. LHP and Paxton guaranteed the win!
PITCHING BREAKDOWN:
MATT BOYD (11,200) – Fade at his price tag there is no ceiling. He is sitting in a safe 16-21 DK point range his last 5 starts which is only about a 2x top end. Royals also hitting .324 off him through 105 Abs.
MIKE CLEVINGER (10,800) – I prefer to save $400 and come down here for a winning team and a guy that has more upside. His last 4 start range goes from 23-35 DK points giving you closer to a 3x ceiling. He has also only allowed more than 1 ER in 1 of his last 4 starts. Solid BVP as they are only hitting .217 off him through 83 team Abs with a big 30% K rate. Mikey does have a road ERA of 5.47 but his xFIP is only 3.01. CLE has the #1 bullpen since July 1st so should be able to hold onto the win when he comes out of the game!
AARON NOLA (10,600) – Don’t mind Nola as a pivot off Clevinger if the ownership is going to be high. He is coming off 35 points but it was vs a horrible CWS team. His prior 4 starts were 21, 23, 8, 24 and 25. I think he has a solid 2-2.5x outing tonight. SFG is only scoring 2.6 runs per game over the last week but they have solid BVP vs. Nola. They are hitting .382 off him through 34 Abs. Any Abs that are below 30-40 range I take it with a grain of salt.
CHRIS SALE (10,000) – He got killed by NYY last time out giving up 6 ER in 5.1 innings but we know he was in trouble because as you read on our article yesterday the NYY crush LHP. They beat up David Price, Chris Sale and then John Means again last night. Prior to that start he put up a 29 and 39 point outing that covered 12.0 innings with 22 strikeouts and only 2 total ERs. 15.1% swinging strike rate is off the charts! He does have a 4.76 ERA at home but his xFIP at home is a nice 2.72! He supports a 14.7 K9 rate at home, low 1.17 whip and allowing a lower .225 batting average. LAA has faced him 65 teams and only hitting .200 off him with a 28% K rate. LAA has lost 6 straight, 2-8 in their last 10 games and only hitting .194 as a team over the last week while scoring 3.0 runs per game. Fire up some Sale!
MAD BUM (8,400) – Great price on someone that could push 30 DK points. He is coming off a rough start but it was @ COL so let’s toss that out the window. He has 20, 19, 29 and 18 DK points in his last 4. Solid 2x floor with 30 point upside. Great BVP vs. PHI as they are only hitting .196 off him through 46 team Abs. Harper is only 4 for 17 (.235), Jean Segura is 0 for 13 (.000) and they have a 35% K rate in those 46 Abs.
KYLE GIBSON (7,800) – Hard fade for me here. He will be highly owner as this price point and he is coming off 23, 29, 1 and 24 DK point starts. However if you look closer these were facing KC, @CWS and then a struggling Oakland team. The 1 point game was vs. NYY. Tonight he gets a hot CLE team so I’m staying away from the smoke and mirrors!
DILLON “PUNT OPTION” PETERS (5,300) – His last 3 starts were 16, -3 and 20 DK points. So negative all the way up to 4x value. Facing a struggling Boston team he just came off 16 DK points off a hot CLE team @ CLE going 7.2 with only 3 ER and 5Ks. He is in the punt range for me tonight.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
NYY vs. Another LHP – Don’t get cute here and try to be cute, short slate and NYY KILL LHP! They beat up David Price, Chris Sale and John Means again yesterday and they get another LHP today in Thomas Pannone. wRC+ of a whopping 156.9 vs. HP with an OBP+ISO of .676 which is off the charts! See cheatsheet for specific hitters as today is free premium cheatsheet day in our Facebook group – link below! NYY scoring 8.3 runs per game and hitting a whopping .321 over the last week!
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. Matt Boyd – Boyd is the most expensive pitcher on the slate today at 11,200 and KC is only projected at 4.1 runs so this will be LOW OWNED and great for a GPP dart in a single entry tourney! Ok I haven’t been drinking just hear me out… KC is scoring 4.5 runs per game over the last week and hitting .244 as a team (which is better than Boston) and you can do a 5 man stack for the most expensive 5 hitters at only a 3,860 average per hitter. You can even get it down to 3,000-3,300 for a low end 5 man stack. They are hitting Boyd at a .324 clip through 105 team Abs. On our cheatsheet (which is free today did I mention that?) we have the projected 1-3-4-5-8 hitters as the best stack. That is Whit, Dozier, Soler, Cuthbert and Cam Gallagher. Whit is 15 for 34 hitting .441 off Boyd, Dozier is 5 for 12 for a .417 average, Soler is 3 for 7 and Cuttie is 6 for 17. Alex Gordon is projected to hit #2 and the only fade right now as he is only 4 for 22 (.182) and scoring an average of 1.0 FPPG over the last week and only 4.2 over the last 14 days.
CLEVELAND – See write up above for Kyle Gibson and his smoke and mirror numbers. Gibson does have a solid home split with a 3.70 xFIP, 1.08 whip and allowing a .219 batting average which is well under his .249 total average allowed. However, CLE is cheap and they have great BVP and have seen a ton of Gibson. BVP is a massive .331 average through 157 team Abs with a microscopic low 15% strikeout rate! You can stack the 5 highest priced hitters for 4,580 average and get that down to as low as 4,080 average. Lindor is 13 of 36 (.361), Jose Ramirez 11 for 32 (.344), Jason Kipnis 14 for 34 (.412) are 3 hitters I’d have in the stack.
FADE THE CHALK STACK: BOSTON – I love me some Red Sox but right now they are hitting .230 as a team over the last week and scoring only 3.6 runs per game. They rank 27th in our L10 game power rankings and the 5 high stack is an average of 5,240 per hitter which is nose bleed pricing. Projected at 6.6 runs I’m passing on them as they will be high owned in GPPs as most people usually only look at Vegas projected runs but they are ice cold right now going 1-9 in their L10 games.
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