NBA Prize Picks Report from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
PrizePicks is a website that I’m fairly new too but using our DFS knowledge to parlay some player props is a ton of fun! For our projections we are taking their season average, last 15 game averages to determine a prize point per minutes which is similar to our fantasy point per minute approach. And then we are using an average of projected minutes and played minutes over recent games to level out any projected spikes.
PLAYS WE LIKE FOR TONIGHT:
Draymond Green – over 8.5 assists
I typically don’t venture into the “other stats” section but Draymond has put up 11, 10, 15 and 15 assists over the last 4 games so over 8.5 seems like a good shot to hit.
Jimmy Butler – over 43 Fantasy Points
The key on PrizePicks is to understand the scoring format. With AST at 1.5 and blocks/steals at +3 those are huge categories. Butler averages around 1-2 combined blocks/steals per game so that is 6 points right off the bat so now we need to find 37 other points. Real points he has put up 26, 17, 14, 19 and 25 so it’s safe to say he will be somewhere around 20 points give or take so that puts us now at around 26 fantasy points. AST are worth 1.5 and he has 10, 9, 9 and 9 the last 4 so if we projected him around the same number that is another +15 points so now we are up to 41 with a total of 43 that we are shooting for. REB are worth 1.2 and for the sake of this I’m just going to figure a point a board and he has 8, 10, 8 and 8 over the last 4 so if we give him a safe 8 REB that is 41+8 = 49 points going over the 43.
Now if you want to make it simpler you can see that we have him at 1.35 prize points per minute on the season and 1.42 prize points per minute over the last 15 days. He is averaging 34 minutes per game and projected for 36 minutes tonight. If we take a average and give him 35 minutes x 1.42 prize points per minute that brings us to 49.4 which crushes the 43 number set by PrizePicks. Worth a shot!
Pascal Siakam – over 39 Fantasy Points
Do you want the long or the short version for Siakam? 1.10 prize points per minute on the season and 1.29 over the last 15 days. His minutes are solid averaging 36 over the last 5 games and projected for 37 tonight. 36 minutes x 1.29 prize points per minute = 45.8 fantasy points going over his 39 projected number. If you use his season long average of 1.10 x 36 minutes that is still 41 fantasy points.
Delon Wright – over 26 Fantasy Points
Last 5 games with a 32 minute average per game and projected for 32 again so his minutes are safe. His prize point per minute on the season vs. last 15 is 0.97 and up to 1.04. I like to see players with a higher number over the last 15 games when taking “overs”. 32 minutes x 1.04 = 33 fantasy points going over the 26 number set by Prize Picks. With the Derrick Rose trade his minutes and projections just keep getting better. If we break down his individual games recently then I love the over here. Last game he had 22 points + (9 assists x 1.5) + (4 REB x 1.2) + (2 steals x 3) = 46.3 Fantasy Points. The game prior was over 40 points. The game prior to that he ONLY played 25 minutes, ONLY scored 5 real points but had 4 steals, 6 assists and 8 boards. That comes out to 5+12+9+9.6 = 35.6 points. Now it’s -1 for a turnover so add in a couple per game and we are still cruising over 26.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze