PGA Showdown Plays & Stats for Round 3 from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Money with our round 2 article. We had HV3 coming back to earth after putting up a +2.66 strokes gained putting and he went to -2.28 in R2. His round scores went from -8 down to -1 in the second round. Sloan shot -8 and he was a fade for us after putting up a +6.11 strokes gained putting and he went to +0.33 in R2 with an even par score. Munoz we didn’t like due to the low ceiling of -3 and he came out and shot -3. Sung Kang was a fade after shooting a -4 and he came back and shot +10. Scott Brown went -4 and we said “fade” and he shot +1. Our plays that we had all shot between -1 and -4 on the day so nothing amazing but nothing that killed you. Let’s take a look at round 3 now that we have 2 rounds of data to look at!
GUYS TO PLAY IN ROUND 3:
WEBB SIMPSON – I’m going to ride him the entire tournament and I think he is going to move up the leaderboard tomorrow. He has shot two rounds of -4 giving you a solid number and something to build around. 20th in putting and he is only +0.99 which is fairly consistent with his rank. He is also +1.46 in approach and +2.02 in T2G which correlate really strong on this course.
HARRIS ENGLISH – I love fitting in a few studs and English is one of my go to guys this week. He opened with a -6 and then had a -3 today. He is 4th in P4 scoring, 33rd in approach and 14th in T2G. He also ranks 9th in putting and only +0.73 strokes gained so I like that number. He is a solid +2.33 in ball striking, +2.12 in approach and +2.78 in T2G. He can also get low and has a recent ceiling of -7 and even shot a -6 just 1 day ago!
BILLY HORSCHEL – With a -4 and -6 he is giving you solid numbers. His strokes gained putting for the tournament is a little high at +2.07 but he does rank 15th in putting so that isn’t “out of this world”. He is +1.74 in ball striking, +1.12 in approach and +1.95 in T2G. He has an average round of -2.3 over his last 12 and a ceiling around that -6 number he just shot today. 6th in P4 scoring, 17th in T2G and he is just getting started!
MARK HUBBARD – Only 7800 on DK and he has shot a -3 and -5 round so far this tournament. He ranks 18th in putting and he is -0.19 so that will get better for him. He is putting up MASSIVE STATS with +2.75 strokes gained ball striking, +2.04 on approach and +3.21 in T2G. He is basically a mini version of Webb Simpson.
DOC REDMAN – Priced at only 8000 you get a discount off some of the upper guys. Doc is only +2.95 strokes gained ball striking and +3.36 in T2G, Wow! So I’m looking at his strokes gained putting and want to make sure he isn’t +2.00 or +3.00 or higher. He is only +0.16 so he is right around average but ranks 44th so that is right on the number. 34th in P4 scoring, 10th in approach and 41st in T2G. Worth a look!
HENRIK NORLANDER – Priced right around the Doc Redman line Norlander comes in at a smooth 8100. He’s put up a -3 and -2 so we need to see more out of him for win a GPP. He is 22nd and 27th in approach and T2G and 37th in putting. He is only +0.30 with the flat stick so that is good and shows us he isn’t crazy lucky. He has massive number across the board with +1.94 in ball striking, +2.22 in approach and +1.21 in T2G. Average round of -3.5 strokes and recent ceiling of -7 puts him on a radar and in our R3 player pool.
GUYS TO FADE:
TOMMY FLEETWOOD – With a solid round today of -6 I think his ownership will be high tomorrow. He is priced at 9600 which seems really high. The reason I’m off him is he ranks 79th in putting over the last 36 rounds and has moved to +2.47 strokes gained with the flat stick. That is hard to maintain so if you look at him being average he should of shot -3 today and not -6. Fade at that price tag I want a safer option up top!
SHANE LOWRY – Monster round today of -7 that is definitely going to grab some ownership. He ranks 132nd in putting and he is +1.96 strokes with the putter for the tournament. He is at least over 1 stroke gained in the APP and T2G category so I like him over Fleetwood if you are going to play him.
RAFA CABRERA BELLO – Two rounds of -3 and priced at only 7000 on DK. He ranks 90th in putting and is +2.36 with the putter so looking for a pull back in round 3. He is -0.64 strokes gain approach and ranks 99th in approach over his last 36 rounds. Easy fade.
ROGER SLOAN – Sitting at T10 right now after shooting -8 in the first round and then back to an even par today. Still sitting at +3.22 strokes gained putting and ranks 105th over his last 36 rounds. If he is lucky he could grind out a -2 tomorrow but I think par or worse is more likely. Easy fade for me as the putter comes back to reality.
C.T. PAN – Ranks 151st in putting and +1.37 strokes for the tourney. He is also negative strokes gained in approach and T2G and barely positive at +0.17 in ball striking. With so many Par 4s on this course I don’t want someone who ranks 147th in P4 scoring.
Thanks for reading,