PGA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
PGA is taking off after Harris English dropped 152.5 DK points last week winning the Tournament of Champions. I tweaked the PGA cheathseet a little for the start of 2021 to make it easier to loading. I will have some screen shots in future articles but let’s get started looking at the Sony Open!
HIGH END PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
WEBB SIMPSON – High end stud that has a great course history here. He has finished 3rd, 4th, 13th and 13th in the last 4 years he has played here. Webb has made 6/6 cuts this season and ranked as #8 in the world. Over his last 36 rounds he is 4th in DK points, 7th in SG: Putting, 19th in Proximity and 13th in T2G. He is solid for cash but for GPP he really needs to win to pay off his salary. His last 4 tournaments he has been between 90.5 – 104.5 DK points which is great for a cash anchor but for GPP that is an average of around 8x.
HARRIS ENGLISH – Coming off a win last week he is projected to be the highest owner golfer this week. He has made 6/7 cuts and has slightly better stats than Webb over his last 36 rounds. He ranks 3rd in DK points, 11th in T2G and 9th in SG: Putting. What impresses me is in the new PGA cheatsheet for this year I made a few slight changes and he is 25th in Par 4 birdie percentage and 18th in Par 5 birdie percentage. (Compare that to Webb who is 113th and 61st) English is coming off 152.5 DKP last week and prior to that win he has 61, 81, 85 and 99.5.
COLLIN MORIKAWA – He is one of my favorite young golfers to watch and he is extremely accurate with his irons. He has made 4/6 cuts this year and his only issue is putting. He ranks 99th in SG: Putting over his last 36 rounds which isn’t good. If he can put together a halfway decent day putting he can crush the course. He ranks 10th in total proximity and on my sheet I can quickly see the range of ranks for proximity from 125-150, 150-175, 175-200 and 200+ and he ranks 4th, 19th, 2nd and 12th in those. Webb and English both have some good ones but some in the 50-75 range while Morikawa is low across the board no matter the distance. He is solid putting up 116, 85, 94, 95 and 99.5 over his last 5 events. He took 30th here last year so if he can turn his putting around he could compete.
SUNGJAE IM – He is projected to have half the ownership of all the guys above him who are ranking lower (statwise) and putting up less DK points per tourney. He has made 8/9 cuts and priced just under 10k at 9800. Over his last 36th holes in SG:T2G, SG:APP and SG:OTT he ranks 10th, 10th and 5th. He has played here each of the last two years and finished 21st and 16th. He has 3 straight tournaments over 100 DKPs putting up 126.5, 123.5 and 116.0 and his last 5 give him an average of 11.3x value!
MID-TIER PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
RYAN PALMER – Took 4th here last year and priced at 9200 which is much lower than the above mentioned golfers. He is coming off 142 DKP last week giving us a huge ceiling for GPPs. He is 2nd in DK points over his last 36 rounds, 19th in approach, 2nd in BOB% (which is great here) and 16th in total proximity. What pops out for me is that he is 8th in P4 birdie% and 11th in P5 birdie%. That ranking is higher than any priced golfer above him and he is projected to be the lowest owned in this range and higher. A good low owned GPP dart we can utilize.
KEVIN KISNER – He is priced at 8800 on DK this week with projected mid-tier ownership numbers. His scoring numbers and stats don’t jump off the page but they are decent for this field. Kisner has a great history here with 3 top 5 finishes in the last 5 years (the other two years were 69th and 25th) but he made 5/5 cuts here. Over his last 5 tournaments he is averaging 10.2x value on his current salary. He has put up 88, 80, 56, 116, 113 and 89 DKPs. He is hot right now, ranks well and great history here.
RUSSELL HENLEY – Henley has one of the lowest scoring averages for Par 3 and Par 4s in this tourney. He is at a 2.93 on P3s (compare to Webb at 2.96 and English at 2.97) and he is at 3.88 on P4’s (compare to Webb at 3.94 and English at 3.92). He is priced at 8700 on DK and over his last 36 rounds he is 1st in SG:T2G, 1st in SG: APP, 1st in Sand Saves, 1st in Scrambling, 5th in total proximity and 2nd in P3 and P4 scoring. Wow! The bad… Wait there is always a red flag. He has been cut here in 3 of the last 5 years he played and the other two were a 13th and 66th. He has 63-67 DKPs over his last 3 tournaments. Risk reward GPP only play.
PUNT OPTIONS – GUYS UNDER 7000 ON DK
BRIAN STUARD – There is risk when you get below 7K but Brian Stuard is someone who jumps out at me on my first look. He has made 4/8 cuts this year and ranks 16th in APP over his last 36 holes. He has made the cut here 4 years in a row finishing 53rd, 8th, 4th and 45th. He has put up a solid 74.5, 85.5, 118 and 121.5 DKPs. When someone 10K puts up 100 DKP that is 10x value, but when someone is priced at 6900 they only only need 69 DKPs to his that same 10x value so when he is hitting 85 – 120 that is HUGE VALUE!
HUDSON SWAFFORD – He has made 4/8 cuts and priced at 6800. His ranks are terrible but he has managed to put up 81 and 77 DKP over his last two events and he has made 5 straight cuts here finishing 57th, 3rd, 54th, 13th and 9th.
Bare with me I’m still digging for some values!
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Thanks for reading,
Haze