SPORTS BETTING NOTES FOR FRIDAY!
Last time they faced each other it was a 43-42 shootout game. USC has scored 38+ points in 6 straight games. If you are making a straight bet I like the OVER 67. Vegas opened at pick and now USC -2.5. If you are playing SGP’s on DK I like Caleb Williams over 270 or 295 passing yards with USC total points over. I have several tickets with various combos of points OVER with Caleb Williams passing yards.
Last time they faced off it was a 31-27 game that UTSA won but somehow the line opened at UTSA (-7.5) and is now (-8.5) which feels like a hefty amount of points. Total is on the move and opened at 65.5 and now around 70 with 72% of the cash. I have not bet a side on this game but would lean to take taking the +8.5 with North Texas if I were going to place a wager. My only selection in this game is a both teams over 9.5 1st half points in a large SGPx. If you are playing SGP’s I like both teams to get 24+ points but don’t have any player props I would mix in.
Our model has GSW (-11) and Vegas is laying (-7.5) so that hit my radar. GSW are 2-10 on the road but at HOME they are a solid 9-1 with a 7-3 ATS record. Chicago is 4-7 on the road and 10-10 ATS. Chicago is 3-6 over their last 9 games and DeRozan has been on fire. Golden State has won 5 of their last 7 and 3 of their last 4. The last 3 wins came by 23, 11 and 17 points so a double digit win isn’t unreasonable. GSW team points scored HOME over the last 4 games is 129, 124, 111 and 132. My SGP action here consists of a points prop (Steph 25+, DeRozan 25+ and Vucevic 12+) which pays +210. I don’t mind adding the Chicago alt team total over but I went with the +210 instead of taking up to +270.
NEW ORLEANS/SAN ANTONIO
Vegas has NOP (-7.5) and our model has NOP (-11) so I want to check the L10 game records as I typically stay away if the team is .500 or worse. NOP are 7-3 over the last 10 so that is great and SAN is 1-9 so it’s a game I would consider. Pelicans have won 7 of the last 9 games and they have wins of 18, 19, 45, 11 and 13 in that span so a double digit win is not unreasonable. Spurs have lost 9 in a row by 8, 5, 11, 19, 31, 22, 18, 7 and 37 points. I couldn’t find any good SGP’s that I liked with CJ McCollum in and out of the lineup so I added a leg into a SGPx with Zion 20+ points, Pelicans over 109.5 and Pelicans ML for a (-135) leg just to get some light action.
They just played on 11/30 and what a game it was with Boston winning 134-121 for 255 total points! Jimmy Butler should return tonight and is expected to play so that should lower the number of points scored. Vegas has BOS (-8) and our model has BOS (-17) and BOS is 9-1 over the last 10 games while Miami is only 5-5. BOS is a solid 11-1 SU at home and 9-3 ATS at home while Miami is 7-14 ATS on the road. MIA is 3-5 over it’s last 8 games while BOS is on a 5 win streak at home scoring 134, 140, 130, 122 and 125 points and they are 9-1 over the last 10 games. I don’t mind a side play on Boston (-8) since our model is giving us a higher margin. Love some SGP action here with Tatum 25+ points, Brown 20+ points and Boston team over 114.5 for plus money. You can move that team total down but I just went with 115+ as that is where my risk/reward felt the best.
Cleveland (-10.5) looks good but that is a ton of points to lay. Our model has Cleveland (-22) winning around 118-96. ORL 2-8 last 10 games and CLE 6-4. CLE is a solid 9-1 at home and 8-1-1 ATS at home so that is a plus for us. ORL is 1-9 on the road and 3-6-1 ATS on the road. ORL has lost 6 straight games by 17, 7, 30, 8 and 21 points. CLE has won their last 5 HOME games by 28, 18, 12, 26 and 10 points so all double-digit wins. Keep in mind they did lose on the ROAD to TOR by 12 and MIL by 15 in between those but ORL isn’t even in the same ball park is MIL and TOR. ORL ranks 28th in our last 10 game power ranking and CLE is up to 8th. I don’t have any SGP action on this one as CLE doesn’t sore a ton of points and Mitchelle has been up and down with Garland the most consistent.
Nothing really jumped out today when I was doing my research but I can tell you there is heavy money on Illinois/Maryland over (98% cash/83%tickets), Pittsburgh/NC State over (88% cash/83% tickets) and Niagara/Iona over (99% cash/80% tickets). Our model is pretty close to the total on the first two games but the Iona game we have it projected at 135 and Vegas opened it at 129.5 so that is one I would consider if I didn’t already have a ton of action today.
Thanks for reading and good luck!