MLB Sports Betting Picks & DFS Stacks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES: (Betting)
I am not a handicapping service, so I don’t tell you exactly what to bet and how much. I will share the games that I like and why. You have to decide if you want to fade or follow and how to bet them. If you want less risk then parlay the money lines together, if you want more risk but a higher payout then you can take some run lines (-1.5) for the games. The risk vs. reward choice is one that you make. Here is what I’m looking at for today/tonight:
SPORTS BETTING PICKS: ** NEW EDGE PLAYS!!! **
First, I want to introduce our new “Edge Plays” that are on the MLB Cheatsheet. I put this in the background a few days ago and the “Edge Plays” went 3-0 over a couple days so it’s something that I’m monitoring. The edge is our percentage to win difference than Vegas. We had “Edge”, “Slight Edge” and “Lean” and these are different of 6%, 4% and 2%. Here are some games for today:
Play Type: “Slight Edge”
Our Model vs. Vegas Line: +6% difference
QUICK NOTES: Boston has W2 and PHI has L2. BOS is 14-6 on the road and PHI is 14-8 at home. BOS ranks 10th in our L10 game power rankings and PHI sits at 17th. BOS has the better bullpen ranking 11th vs. 19th of Philly. Aaron Nola has not been “elite” to start the year as he has allowed 8 ER in his last two starts that combined for 10.2 innings. However, those were on the road and his last home start he put up 30.7 DKP going 6.0 IP with 10 Ks against a weak MIL team. Martin Perez has allowed 0, 1, 2 and 1 ERs in his last 4 starts. +140 is too good to pass up on in this spot!
CHICAGO WHITE SOX -105
Play Type: “EDGE”
Our Model vs. Vegas Line: +12% difference
QUICK NOTES: CHW have not been good to me as I was on them a few days in a row and then when I took a night off they exploded! LOL. Both teams are 7-3 L10 games and 14-6 L20 games. CHW ranks 6th vs. NYY 11th in our L10 game power rankings. CHW are a rock solid play vs. LHP where they are 9-2 with a wRC+ of 141.7 and batting .297, WOAH BABY! Jordan Montgomery has an ERA of 4.75 and xFIP of 3.85 so average pitcher. Carlos Rodon has been a stud this year with a 1.47 ERA and 3.21 xFIP and has great BVP history here of 42 ABS and allowing a low .182 average. CHW putting up 5.90 runs per game on the road and 5.7 over the L3 games.
CINCY REDS +110
Play Type: “EDGE”
Our Model vs. Vegas Line: +8% difference
QUICK NOTES: I don’t like taking any “system plays” against losing teams. CIN is 3-7 in their L10 games and L4 straight but MIL isn’t much better at 4-6 L10 and have L2 straight. I may have a “fade rule” on edge plays if they are on losing teams but we will see! We are early in the process! A few things here make this game pop to an 8% edge over the Vegas line. CIN has decent BVP numbers vs. Houser although it’s only 41 Abs they are hitting .390 off him. CIN puts up 6.0 runs per game at HOME vs. only 4.19 on the road and MIL is at 3.81 on the road and only 3.50 at home. MIL hitters are “Ice Cold” right now in our rankings.
OTHER PLAYS: There are several on the MLB sheet but not going to type them all out just the top few that jump out to me and they are listed above.
GAMES I LIKE TODAY + NOTES:
COLORADO/ARIZONE OVER 11.0 RUNS
Wind is blowing out at 17 MPH today. Bullpens rank 28th and 30th in our custom rankings. German Marquez is allowing a .284 batting average at home. COL is putting up 5.88 runs per game at home compared to only 2.79 per game on the road. Over is the only way to go here!
SAN DIEGO PADRES (RL -105) vs. CHRIS FLEXEN (8TH BULLPEN)
Padres are 9-1 in their L10 games and 14-6 in their L20 games while Seattle is 3-7 over their L10. Last 10 game power rankings Padres are 2nd and Seattle is 28th. Last 14 day team runs per game the Padres are at a solid 5.2 and Seattle only 3.6. Seattle just lost a 3 game series to a bad Tigers team 6-2, 5-0 and 4-1. Padres only scored 3, 2 and 7 runs vs. COL. I’m leaning run line -105 as compared to the -205 money line but I don’t mind the money line parlayed in with another game you like.
HOUSTON ASTROS (RL +130) vs. KYLE GIBSON (16TH BULLPEN)
Houston is sending Tyler Ivey to the mound and he is a “wildcard” here that worries me a little bit so I lean all or nothing on the run line. The difference is -125 vs. +130. HOU is hot right now at 8-2 L10 games and W2 straight while TEX is falling apart at 1-9 and L3 straight. Kyle Gibson is a decent pitcher but HOU is hot right now putting up 5.9 runs per game over the L14 days, they are #1 in wRC+ and have the lowest K% in the MLB over that same span. TEX ranks 23rd in our L10 game power rankings and putting up only 3.57 runs per game at home.
DOG 2 TEAM PARLAY: BOSTON +140 / BALTIMORE +180 – PAYS +600
We discussed BOS above and BAL is the other big dog I lean on today. We have a +6% edge for Baltimore based on a +180 money line. BAL has not been good at 2-8 L10 games but WAS hasn’t been great putting up only 3.3 runs per game at home. Strausburg is coming back from the IL after giving up 7 ER in 4.0 IP. WAS could crush it here and I would not be shocked but the odds are too good for me to look past. BAL is hitting .279 off Straus through 61 Abs and that’s with Galvis a horrible 4 for 29. Mullins, Mancini and Hays have been solid and Maikel Franco is 12 for 30 with 3 HRs. Worth a shot. Jorge Lopez for BAL has an xFIP of 4.17 but a solid 3.47 on the road and allowing a low 0.160 average. Both bullpens are in the same tier. WAS has some hitters definitely struggling with big K% such as Josh Bell batting .176 with a 28% K rate, Kyler Schwarber batting .216 with a 26% K rate, Victor Robles batting .246 with a 26% K rate.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS – LAY THE POINTS
The last 3 matchups (this year) between these teams GSW won 113-101, then lost 111-103 and then won 116-103 and all 3 games have gone “under”. The “under” is 3-0 this year between these two teams and the under is 6-0 L6 between these teams. GSW are 7-0 ATS L7 games and MEM is 1-5 ATS L6.
ST. LOUIS BLUES +190 > COLORADO
I have COL bet to win the NHL in my only NHL futures bet but STL has to win at least one game right? STL @ HOME is 6-1 vs. COL.
Mix this in with another game as CAR is 16-5-1 in their L22 games vs. NAS and they have already beat them 5-2 and 3-0. Hurricanes!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!