Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
So in these articles I'm going to identify the games that I'm looking at betting and post screen shots from my DFS/Sports Betting Combo cheatsheet on some stats I'm looking at. You can fade or follow or maybe you see something different in the screen shot that you prefer.
NYY (-150) over Houston
Yankees are on fire right now! They have won 6 straight, Stanton is back, they traded for E5 who is also smashing and scoring 7.3 runs per game over the last week while sitting with the 3rd best last 10 game power ranking! Wow! Brad Peacock is a solid pitcher with an xFIP about a run higher on the road. However, Houston is reeling right now dropping 5 straight and 4-6 in their last 10 games. Paxton hasn't exactly been the stud we were hoping for but it is worth nothing that he is much better at home as his xFIP goes from 4.15 down to 3.55, his whip allowed goes from 1.71 down to 0.95 and his allowed wOBA goes from .381 down to .222. Paxton also has great BVP numbers as the Astros are only hitting .209 against him through 91 ABs. I think -150 is a little cheap for the matchup right now and even if you want to get on the NYY run line Houston is only 10-17 on the run line after a loss! Yankees!
TEXAS (-150) over ChiSox
Texas is in every game right now! They are 18-12 at home since May 1st and projected to score 6.2 runs tonight vs. the ChiSox. Let’s start with Lopez – he started off on fire and then has turned into a dumpster fire as of late giving up 5, 1, 6, 5 and 8 ER in his last 5 starts. Lopez is giving up a 6.57 xFIP to LHH with a 1.85 whip and Texas is loaded with LHH! Lopez is also slightly worse on the road as his allowed wOBA goes from .362 up to a massive .401 with a 5.84 xFIP! Danny Santana is also getting hot again for the Rangers and Willie Calhoun is back off the IL and already starting to rake again! Texas sending out Ariel Jurado isn't the stud but he is manageable. Also the key here is attacking the White Sox on the road as their wRC+ drops from 100.1 down to a low 72.8. Long story short they rank dead last or second to last in the MLB road teams in wRC+, wOBA and OBP/ISO numbers and hold a huge 28.3% strikeout rate on the road.
BOSTON RUN LINE -175 over Toronto
It's not a profitable play to lay -250 or higher so I am for sure not taking Boston at -341 as they sit right now. Boston is rolling out Chris Sale who has been on absolute fire and a solid top 15 bullpen behind him. BoSox are picking up steam with Mookie finally starting to catch fire, Brock Holt has also been a nice spark and there really isn't any ice cold hitters in their lineup. Chris Sale at home has put up a 2.60 xFIP / 14.8 K9 ratio / 1.05 whip and a low .278 allowed wOBA. Now Toronto ranks 25th in their last 10 game power ranking but have managed to average a solid 5.0 runs per game over the last week. I don't think sending out Trenton Thorton and the 2nd to last ranked bullpen since May 1st is worth a play on the Blue Jay side.
LAD (-185) over Colorado Rockies
Dodgers are a solid 21-9 at home since May 1st and rank 1st in wRC+ for all MLB teams playing at home with a huge 143 number. They also rank 3rd in home teams wOBA at .380 and 2nd in OBP+ISO at .621. They have won 3 straight and 6-4 in their last 10. They also rank 4th in the last 10 game power rankings and scoring 5.4 runs per game over the last week. Walker Buehler has only allowed 1 ER across his last 3 starts which total up to 22.0 innings and in those he has put up 26 Ks! Now LAD is solid at home and rolling out a stud pitcher. Colorado is worse on the road even though they got us a +155 dog win last night! Their wRC+ on the road drops from 123.95 down to 83.76 and their wOBA drops from .408 down to .302 and OBP+ISO numbers drop from .640 down to .453. Colorado is also on it's 4th road game in a row! Colorado sends German Marquez to the mound who has been torched recently giving up 7, 4 and 8 ERs in his last 3 starts. Marquez also has a solid 2.73 xFIP to RHH but to LHH he has a massive 4.13 xFIP with a K9 rate that is only 6.7 compared to his 11.4 vs. RHH and LAD has a projected lineup with 4 of the first 5 hitters from the left side of the plate.
OTHER GAMES I LIKE TODAY THAT I'M LEANING ON ARE:
Cincy +120 - Why not? They have won 5 in a row, hold the #1 ranked bullpen and facing a MIL team that has dropped 4 straight and 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Padres +105 - Won 4 straight, hitters are on fire right now and facing a horrible Joe Musgrove followed by the 27th ranked bullpen who has been recently destroyed. I'll take them as a dog!
LAA -110 - Taking a nearly even bet with LAA who ranks 9th in last 10 game power rankings and they rank top 5 across the board playing on the road with a 122.16 wRC+ facing a Cardinals team who has a home wRC+ of only 69.5. Not a bad play!
Parlay Options for the day:
Safe Play (NYY -150 / BOS - 340 / TEX - 150 / LAD - 185) - Pays: +450
Recommended: (NYY -150 / BOS RL -175 / TEX -150 / LAD -185) Pays: +575
Light Risk (NYY -150 / TEX -150 / LAD -185) Pays: +325
Long Shot Parlay for the day:
Padres +105 / NYY -150 / Boston RL -175 / LAD -180 / LAA -110 Pays: +1500
Good luck!
Haze