NFL Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
3 TEAM – 10 POINT TEASER
NCAA: Georgia Bulldogs <Starting this on Saturday -20 down to -10>
NFL: Buffalo Bills (-12 down to -2)
NFL: Tampa Bay (-10 down to pick)
BREAKDOWN OF TEASER PLAYS:
I was struggling to get a good 3rd NFL game so I decided to start it off on Saturday with the Bulldogs. The other sides that were in consideration for this teaser were DAL/ATL over 44, Arizona (pick) and LA Rams +6.
Buffalo > NY Jets – NYJ are giving up the most yards per game at 408.1 (32nd) and that breaks down to 27th in rush yards and 29th in passing yards so the Bills should bounce back strong in this spot. Last week the Jags held Buffalo to 17 first downs, 6 points and 301 offensive yards. Good news this week because last week the Jets gave up 532 total yards, 28 first downs and 45 points to the Colts! Get right came for the Bills!
Tampa Bay > Washington – We have this game projected around 30-21 or 38-17 but either way Tampa Bay clearly taking control of this game and putting up a “W”. WAS allowing the 29th most yards in the NFL at 389.4 and Tampa the 7th least at only 335. Offensively Tampa has the 3rd highest amount of total yards per game at 423 and WAS is middle of the road at 16th with 348. We have a yardage edge around 128 for the Bucs.
STRAIGHT WAGERS TO CONSIDER:
RAMS (-3 OR -3.5) > SAN FRAN
“Cheat Line” has this 27-25 Rams so not covering but our skew model has it 31-21 covering the spread so this takes some additional digging. The YPP (yard per point) is a huge edge to the Rams who are posting a 12.4 and San Fran is struggling at 17.0. Last week the Rams lost to the Derrick Henry less Titans 28-16 but if you look at the game they weren’t that bad. The Rams held the first down edge 22-16 and yardage edge 347-194. The Rams did lose the game but they only allowed 194 total yards and 16 first downs. San Francisco is giving up a 67.9% red zone touchdown rate (24th) in the NFL. San Fran only rushed for 39 yards last week against the tough Arizona “D” but threw for 298 with a pick and 2 fumbles. I’d buy the half point and go Rams -3.
COLTS (-10) > JAX
I would also consider this on the 3 team 10 point teaser if you want to stick with NFL and take Colts down to (pick’em). Skew line has this around 30-17 so just sliding over a cover. JAX YPP is a horrible 20.9 and IND is sitting at 13.2 which is better than league average. JAX is in a perfect let down spot after winning last week as a 16.5 point dog over Buffalo. But check that Jags “OFF” who was held to only 218 total yards, 16 first downs and 9 points. Colts put up 532 yards, 28 first downs and 45 points against the Jets last week. Again!
ATLANTA FALCONS (+9.5) OVER COWBOYS
The line is around +9 or +9.5 so don’t freak out if I put down +9.5 and you have +9. YPP evaluation has this 16.1 to 12.7 in favor of Dallas but ATL has been climbing over recent weeks. Our “Cheat Line” has this game at Cowboys -5.5 so I like taking the points in this spot. Cowboys last week were dominated by the Broncos 407-290 total yards, 190-78 rushing yards, 23-14 first downs with a 30-16 final score. I don’t think anyone saw that coming after the Von Miller trade and Denver heading into Dallas for a road game where Dak was coming back. ATL played a great game last week against a stout Saints “D”. They managed to hang in that game and pull out a 27-25 win. Falcons can’t run (34 rush yards last week) but they can throw! 366 last week through the air and Dallas is 25th in passing yards allowed per game at 270.5 so this is a great spot for the Falcons. Dallas is great against the run allowing the 10th least amount of yards but doesn’t matter here. Dallas 31st at putting pressure on the QB so Matt Ryan has time to pick apart that secondary!
BUFFALO (-12) OVER NY JETS
Can’t back the 2-6 ATS Jets even against the Bills who got slapped in the face last week. Jets lost 45-30 last week to the Colts giving up 28 first downs and 532 total yards. Bills bounce back so if you don’t ride heavy on the teaser I don’t mind a unit play on the Bills laying the points. We do have a 200+ yardage edge for the Bills in this game with a projected score around 38-11 on the skew line and 31-17 on the “Cheat Line”.
MINNY (+3 OR MONEYLINE) OVER LA CHARGERS
I can tell you this play is against the public as heavy money is coming in on the Chargers at home so take it with a grain of salt. We have this game with MIN 25-24 or LAC 27-25 but either way a close game and taking the +3 or money line is where I’m leaning. Both teams around the same YPP 15.4 for the Vikes and 16.7 for the Chargers and they are 9th and 10th in offensive yards per game. Chargers have a slight edge on defensive yards allowed of 358-383 but either way it’s close. Now the reason I like the Vikes here is Dalvin Cook should go bananas against this Chargers rush “D” that ranks 32nd in rush yards allowed per game giving up 161.6 yards and a whopping 5.0 yards per carry (32nd). Last week Philly rushed for 176 yards against the Chargers to stay in that game finally losing 27-24. Chargers attack through the air throwing at a 64% clip (6th highest in the NFL) and Vikes are middle of the road in passing yards allowed per game with 247 (16th). Grab the moneyline if you want a better payday or take the points because this game will be close. You can even toss this on a small 6 point teaser and get to +9 or +9.5.
CLOSING NOTES FOR OTHER GAMES:
PACKERS/SEATTLE – Last report was Aaron Rodgers was “on track” to play and if he does play then I’ll be on the Packers but can’t call it a play until that is final. Packers are 8-1 ATS and 3-0 ATS at home. The difference of these two teams is the “D” where SEA is 31st in total yards allowed per game at 401.5 and Packers 5th at only 321.2. Packers at home with Aaron Rodgers, lay it!
TITANS/SAINTS – This game is very interesting to me. Alvin Kamara is fighting a knee injury and would be a huge blow to the Saints. Titans had a big win last week but even though they won 28-16 they only rushed for 69 yards and threw for 125 for 194 total yards and 16 first downs. Saints “D” could turn them upside down but Saints rank 28th in offensive yards per game so hard to trust.
ARIZONA/PANTHERS – Arizona is 7-2 ATS and they should apply a ton of pressure to the QB as CAR ranks 26th at pass pro and ARI is 3rd at applying pressure to the QB. Several moving parts to this game so staying off it for now.
DETROIT/PIT – Almost had a play here on DET +8 or +9 but hard to back these Lions and that 21.1 YPP which is horrible. DET is 4-4 ATS and PIT is 3-5. PIT is down offensive weapons with a bad offensive line but Lions have no consistency.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze